The Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) look to stay undefeated as they host the Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) at Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Kentucky has had some mixed results this season. Mark Stoops' team was blown out in its SEC opener at home by South Carolina, and then the following week, it took Georgia to the brink, losing 13-12 while causing the Bulldogs to relinquish their No. 1 ranking.
They rebounded with a dominant 41-6 win over Ohio — in which the offense put up almost 500 yards — but this is going to be a very difficult game on both sides of the ball.
Ole Miss has been dominant so far this season. Lane Kiffin's offense is humming as it's averaging 55 points per game with Jaxson Dart at QB, who's one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.
The difference this year is the Rebels' dominant defense, which has only given up a total 22 points through four games. While all of that is impressive, their schedule hasn't been very difficult, so this will be their biggest test of the season so far.
The Rebels are still 17.5-point favorites on the spread, though, and are -850 on the moneyline. Also, the total comes in at 53.
Continue below for my Kentucky vs. Ole Miss prediction for Saturday, September 28.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss Pick: Under 53.5
My Kentucky vs Ole Miss best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at ESPN BET, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 53 -110 / -110 | +575 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 53 -110 / -110 | -850 |
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss Point Spread: Kentucky +17.5 (-110) · Ole Miss -17.5 (-110)
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss Total: Over/Under 53
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss Moneyline: Kentucky +575 · Ole Miss -850
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Preview
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: Run Game is Crucial
Kentucky's offense is abysmal whenever it has to face a good defense. The Wildcats put up over 30 points against Southern Miss and Ohio, but only scoring a combined 19 points against Georgia and South Carolina is really concerning.
It all starts with their run game — because if that isn't working, they're in trouble.
Lead back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye really struggled to break off big runs against South Carolina and Georgia. He did end up averaging over four yards per carry, which is a positive, but for the season, Kentucky is 131st in rushing explosiveness.
The goal against Ole Miss is going to be control the clock and try to run the ball as effectively as possible to keep the ball out of Dart's hands.
If Kentucky isn't able to run the ball effectively against one of the best run defenses in the country, then that's going to put the pressure on Brock Vandagriff to beat his opponent with his arm, which he hasn't been able to do this season.
Vandagriff was good against Southern Miss and Ohio, but he's been pretty bad against SEC-level defenses.
The Kentucky defense has been really impressive this season and was the only reason it was in the game against Georgia. It starts up front with the Wildcats' ability to not only stop the run, but put pressure on the quarterback.
Ole Miss is putting up gaudy rushing numbers through four games, but against Georgia, Kentucky held the Bulldogs to just 3.2 yards per carry, and for the season, it's 16th in EPA/Rush allowed.
The Wildcats also will be able to put some pressure on Dart, as they're sixth in the country in Havoc. That's massive because Dart has basically been throwing from a clean pocket all season long.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: First True Test for Jaxson Dart
Kiffin's offense has been dominating everyone, but this will be its first true test. The Rebels are the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of success rate and are second in EPA per play.
Dart has been incredible, as he leads the country in EPA and also has the highest PFF passing grade at 93.7. The reason for that? His offensive line has done a great job in pass protection, and there's not a better quarterback in the country when throwing from a clean pocket.
Dart has only been pressured on 12% of his drop backs, but given the way Kentucky is able to generate Havoc, that's likely going to change.
Last season, when Dart was throwing from a crowded pocket, his numbers dropped quite a bit.
The other question is how effective Ole Miss' rushing attack is going to be against a defensive line that's eighth in the country in defensive line yards.
Henry Parrish Jr. has been running the ball really effectively this season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. Also, the offensive line is fifth in line yards, but that's against a very soft schedule with quite frankly some really bad defenses.
What's changed this season for Ole Miss is it has a really good defense. Last year, its biggest problem by far was giving up big plays, as it ranked 129th in the country in explosiveness allowed.
Pete Golding seems to have turned things around this season, as the Rebels returned a lot of production from last year and now are second in the country in success rate allowed.
The biggest thing in this game is going to be stopping the run. Ole Miss has a really good defensive front that's only allowing 1.2 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the country.
It all starts up front, where the Rebels are also No. 1 in the country in defensive line yards. It'll be big if they can stop Kentucky's rushing attack, given how limited the Cats are in the passing game.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 4 | |
Ole Miss Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 8 |  |
| Pass Success | 2 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 21 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 75 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 48 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 3 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (108) | 22.2 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (24) | 53% (68) |
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Pick & Prediction
Even though Ole Miss' offense has been putting up a crazy amount of points, this is the first real defense it'll face this season.
Stoops and Kiffin went toe-to-toe in 2022 when Dart was the starting quarterback, and it resulted in a 22-19 thriller. On that day, Ole Miss was able to put up almost 400 yards of offense, but Stoops' defense limited the Rebels in the red zone.
The way Kentucky wins this game is by controlling the clock. It has to do what it did against Georgia, which is run the ball effectively, play at its incredibly slow pace and keep Ole Miss' offense off the field.
Kentucky is running the ball at a 63% rate, so even if it goes down early, I don't think it's going to suddenly panic, try to play fast and throw the ball at a high rate.
For Ole Miss' offense, this will be a really good test, as it hasn't faced even close to a defense it's going to see on Saturday. Given the way Kentucky was able to slow down Georgia's offense, I think it can do the same here.
I only have 50.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 53.5 points.
Pick: Under 53.5
How to Watch Kentucky vs Ole Miss Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Betting Trends
- 55% of bets and 53% of the money are on Ole Miss to cover the spread.
- 66% of bets and 54% of the money are on the over.
- 98% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on Ole Miss.
