Week 13 brings us a new SEC matchup where the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 1-6 SEC) travel down to Austin, Texas, to face the Texas Longhorns (9-1, 5-1). Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
With in-state rival Texas A&M on deck, those could be a lookahead game for the Longhorns, who are coming off a 20-10 victory over Arkansas. Kentucky, meanwhile, is coming off a 48-6 victory over Murray State after losing 4 in a row.
Texas and Kentucky haven't played each other in recent memory, so this will be a big game to establish a precedent in a matchup that will be more common in years to come with conference realignment.
Texas enters this one as a -20.5 home favorite with an over/under of 47.
Let's dive into my Kentucky vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, Nov. 23.
Kentucky Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks
- Kentucky vs. Texas Pick: Kentucky +20.5
My Texas vs. Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kentucky vs Texas Odds, Spread, Line
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +750 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -1400 |
- Kentucky vs Texas Spread: Kentucky +18.5 · Texas -18.5
- Kentucky vs Texas Over/Under: 46.5 Total Points
- Kentucky vs Texas Moneyline: Kentucky ML +750 · Texas ML -1400
Kentucky Football vs Texas Football Betting Preview
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: Looking to Play Spoiler
Head coach Mark Stoops has done a pretty solid job up in Lexington leading this Kentucky football program in his 12th season, but he has to be disappointed with his record this season.
Kentucky has typically been a borderline top-25 team under Stoops. However, it has not had the success it would like. I expect he'll have his team ready to play spoiler this week.
This is definitely a Stoops-led offense with Brock Vandagriff under center and a heavy emphasis on running the football and controlling the clock. In fact, Kentucky runs the ball 59% of the time.
The Wildcats are averaging a modest 21.9 points per game because of the commitment to the run game. Kentucky does have success running the ball, ranking 18th in Rush Success Rate, but it doesn't get too many big plays on the ground with a rank of 118th in Rush Explosiveness.
While Vandagriff has found some success throwing the ball downfield on play-action, ranking 21st in Pass Explosiveness, he and his passing attack have simply been not good enough to win in the SEC gauntlet.
Vandagriff will need to make the most of his opportunities in this one and take care of the football if the Wildcats want to keep it close.
Stoops has a strong defense that allows 19.3 points per game and is committed to stopping the run.
However, they've been getting cooked a bit through the air, ranking 49th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 107th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
This defense is pretty opportunistic and can force some turnovers (12th in Havoc) to create some easy opportunities for its offense. They Wildcats will need a few of those to keep this one close.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Lookahead Spot?
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas back to national title contenders each year again, and it's predicated on handling his business in games like this.
His team enters this one as a heavy favorite, so they will need to be focused on the task at hand rather than looking ahead because this season has proven that anyone can beat anyone on any given week.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers and this Longhorns offense have averaged a whopping 37 points per game on the season. The Horns had some early-season injuries to their running back room, so they haven't been as effective on the ground as they would hope.
The strength of this offense is letting Ewers work with this talented wide receiver room, headlined by former Alabama wideout Isaiah Bond. They should be able to throw the ball all over Kentucky if they want to try to end this one quickly.
The Longhorns defense has been strong all season due to strong defensive line play. The D-line has controlled the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for teams to run or throw, especially in the red zone.
Texas has given up just 11.9 points per game, ranking 39th in Success Rate allowed and 13th in Explosiveness allowed. I would expect them to have a strong game plan keyed in on stopping the run-heavy Kentucky offense.
Kentucky vs Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Texas match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 59 |  |
| Pass Success | 123 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 4 | |
Texas Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 30 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 40 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 65 | 48 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 106 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (100) | 25.6 (33) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (41) | 50% (91) |
How to Bet My Kentucky vs Texas Pick
I think this will be a lookahead game for the Longhorns in which Sarkisian tries to limit what he shows in the passing game.
I think Texas will commit to the run game in this one a bit more than it normally does, so this should be a tighter, lower-scoring game.
With a lower total posted for this game, I'll play Kentucky at +20.5.
Pick: Kentucky +20.5
Kentucky vs Texas Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Kentucky will travel west to face Texas on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Kentucky vs Texas Betting Trends
Kentucky vs Texas Weather
