Lee Corso is the star of ESPN’s “College GameDay.” The popular college football pregame show ends each week with the 84-year-old Corso donning the mascot’s headgear of the team he thinks will win the host school’s game.
It is a tradition that has spanned more than two decades. The headgear predictions are not only entertaining but also provide bettors a profitable wagering opportunity.
Corso, the former coach, is a television personality and often short on actionable analysis. He is the stand in for the public. Like recreational gamblers he overvalues a program’s ranking and the name of the school on the uniform.
Using plays cataloged by GameDayCole, we analyzed how Corso’s picks have performed straight up and against the spread (ATS) since 2012.
Please note that records exclude five FCS games that didn’t have lines.
- Straight up: 67-49 (57.8%)
- Against the spread: 42-71-3 (37.2%) ATS
In the past eight seasons, Corso has correctly picked the winning team 57.8% of the time. Not bad, but anyone tailing his picks got crushed. Gamblers would have gone 42-71-3 (37.2%) ATS betting these teams to cover according to Bet Labs.
Fading Corso is profitable strategy. By betting against his headgear selections gamblers are 71-42-3 (62.8%) ATS since 2012. The results aren’t too surprising if you consider that most picks are for a marquee matchup, often featuring a pair of top 25 teams.
These games receive a lot of action. Betting against the public in games featuring a pair of ranked teams has been a smart play. Since 2012, teams getting less than 50% of bets in a matchup of top 25 squads have gone 175-150-6 (53.8%) ATS.
On Saturday, Corso and crew will be in Ames when Iowa State hosts No. 19 Iowa. Corso will pick either the Cyclones or Hawkeyes to win.
Remember, when Corso puts on the headgear make your way to the ticket window to fade his pick.
