Liberty Flames vs Oregon Ducks Odds
| Liberty Flames Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+18.5 -115 | 70.5 -115o / -105u | +625 |
| Oregon Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-18.5 -105 | 70.5 -115o / -105u | -1000 |
Beggars can’t be choosers, and after wishing to be the Group of Five’s lone representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game, Liberty was gifted a nearly fully-loaded Oregon team.
Despite Liberty’s undefeated record (13-0), the Flames opened as the biggest underdog in all of bowl season. That changed after the plethora of Florida State opt-outs from its bowl against Georgia, but the fact still stands that the Conference USA champ faces an uphill battle.
Oregon (11-2) just missed out on the program’s second College Football Playoff appearance, but despite being relegated to one of the least compelling bowl games of New Year’s weekend, most of the Ducks’ top talent made the trip to Glendale.
Even with the mismatch on paper, the Fiesta Bowl is no stranger to upsets.
The underdog has won outright in each of the last two iterations, and who can forget Boise State’s Ian Johnson scoring the game-winning touchdown in 2007 to cap off the Broncos’ undefeated season?
The deck seems stacked against the Flames, but all they need to do is keep it within two scores.
Does Liberty have what it takes to pull a backdoor cover in Bo Nix’s final collegiate game?
Liberty Flames
Jamey Chadwell’s first season in Lynchburg and Liberty’s first year in a conference could not have gone any better. The Flames made it through their season unscathed and topped New Mexico State by 14 points in the Conference USA Championship — their second double-digit win over the Aggies of the season.
But not all schedules are created equal. Liberty’s strength of schedule ranks last in the country, with the Flames yet to play a single team from the Power Five.
You can only play the teams on your schedule, though, and the Liberty offense made light work of the opposition. The Flames’ 40.8 points per game were the fifth-most in the country, as Liberty was the only team in the nation to rush for more than 300 yards per game.
While Liberty’s run-heavy offense can resemble that of a service academy, quarterback Kaidon Salter was efficient when he needed to be, ranking fourth nationally with 10.3 passing yards per attempt.
And the good news for the Flames is that everyone of note on offense will be suiting up for the Fiesta Bowl.
The defense was far from as impressive for Liberty, however. The Flames are just 83rd in Run Success Allowed, and mind you, that came against a Conference USA slate.
Liberty’s passing defense ranked outside the top 100 (244.8 yards per game) and will be without starting cornerback Preston Hodge.
The Flames defense got leakier as the season progressed, allowing at least 25 points in all six of Liberty’s final Conference USA games.
Oregon Ducks
Liberty may be thrilled to just be in the Fiesta Bowl, but the opposite end of that spectrum sees an Oregon team that fell a field goal short of achieving its preseason aspirations.
However, while teams in similar situations saw a mass exodus into the transfer portal or early exits for the NFL Draft, some of Oregon’s biggest difference-makers decided to stick around for a game against a Conference USA opponent.
The Ducks offense will be without star wideout Troy Franklin and center Jackson Powers-Johnson, but most everyone else of note on the nation’s second-most prolific offense will be there, including quarterback Bo Nix and running back Bucky Irving.
Irving’s decision to stay is notable for an offense that finished third and second in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards, respectively. Now, he'll face a run defense that struggled against the likes of Bowling Green and New Mexico State.
Without Franklin, Nix still has 1,000-yard receiver Tez Johnson to throw to. Johnson really broke out in the second half of the season, recording at least 125 receiving yards in three of Oregon’s final five games.
Defensively, Oregon’s roster availability is just as sound, with the Ducks losing only two starters to NFL Draft preparation. Star defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus is a lock to play, and Jordan Burch is a game-time decision, which is notable when preparing to play the Liberty rushing offense.
Oregon has fared OK against the run this year, ranking 39th in Run Success Allowed. The Ducks were one of three Pac-12 teams to hold opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards per game (97.5).
Liberty vs Oregon
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Oregon match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 10 |  |
| Havoc | 11 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 17 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Liberty Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 32 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 27 | 3 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 122 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 64 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (97) | 27.2 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 70.2% (4) | 47.0% (101) |
Liberty vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Fiesta Bowl has a history of producing high-scoring bangers. Eight of the last 12 Fiesta Bowls have produced at least 63 total points, and this year’s version features two of the nation’s top five scoring offenses.
Liberty’s offense, however, hasn’t faced a defense with the caliber of athletes that Oregon has, and I don’t want to tempt fate with how good the Flames offense is against actual competition.
On paper, the Ducks are head and shoulders better than Liberty, but 17 is a big number to hang.
And while Oregon’s starters will play, we don’t know for how long. It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Ducks build a big first-half lead and then let Nix and company get a curtain call in the third quarter.
To guard against the potential backdoor cover when Oregon pulls its stars, taking the Ducks at full strength in the first half is the way to go.
Pick: Oregon 1H -10
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