The Liberty Flames (6-2) play the UMass Minutemen (2-7) on Saturday, Nov. 16 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts.
The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN+.
Liberty is a 14.5-point favorite on the spread with a 51.5-point over/under.
Check out my Liberty vs UMass predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 12 matchup.
Liberty vs UMass Prediction
- Liberty vs UMass Pick: UMass +14.5
My UMass vs. Liberty bet is on the Minutemen to cover as home underdogs, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs UMass Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | -650 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | +475 |
- Liberty vs UMass Point Spread: Liberty -14.5 (-110) · UMass +14.5 (-110)
- Liberty vs UMass Total: Over/Under 51.5
- Liberty vs UMass Moneyline: Liberty -650 · UMass +475
Liberty vs UMass Preview
I struggle to see how Liberty really cares about this nonconference road game at UMass. Coming into the season, Liberty had College Football Playoff aspirations, but those are now completely shot.
The Flames still have an outside shot of winning their conference, but it will require a pair of wins over Western Kentucky and Sam Houston to close out the regular season, as well as some help elsewhere.
Are they really going to be focused or fully prepared for lowly UMass, especially with a noon kick in Amherst? I have my doubts.
Plus, this Flames team has been extremely underwhelming all year despite a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 150 nationally (including FCS teams, per Sagarin).
Unlike last year when they dominated inferior teams on a weekly basis, this year's team has had numerous head-scratching results. They easily could've lost at New Mexico State and actually did get upset as a nearly four-touchdown favorite at Kennesaw State.
Those are two of the worst teams in the entire country. Plus, it also needed overtime to beat Florida International at home.
The Flames have significant holes on both sides of the ball due to a laundry list of injuries and some key portal losses they just haven't adequately replaced.
I also wouldn't be surprised if head coach Jamey Chadwell holds out a key player (or two) who has been dealing with injuries.
While Liberty will hit the road for its second straight road game, UMass will benefit from a much-needed bye week.
That should enable the offense to get more comfortable with a new signal-caller after losing Taisun Phommachanh to a season-ending injury. I'd imagine Ahmad Haston gets the start, but we could also see freshman AJ Hairston.
There's certainly an element of surprise that could work in the Minutemen's favor. Haston does at least have previous experience, and I don't think the drop-off from Phommachanh is material.
Liberty vs UMass
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and UMass match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. UMass Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 113 | |
UMass Offense vs. Liberty Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 116 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 57 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 58 | 72 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 129 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (72) | 29.2 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (9) | 58% (48) |
Liberty vs UMass Pick & Prediction
UMass is not a good football team by any stretch, but it has demonstrated a much higher ceiling in 2024 than we have seen in recent seasons.
The Minutemen have fared particularly well against the upper echelon of the MAC in a trio of road games. They outplayed Toledo statistically in an easy cover, lost in overtime to Miami (OH) and were tied in the fourth quarter against Northern Illinois.
Liberty should have success running the ball with Quinton Cooley against a weak UMass defensive front, but the passing attack really lacks juice this year.
Ultimately, I'm just banking on the flat spot with a number I make under two touchdowns in a game that's essentially meaningless for Liberty.
Plus, per his own words, Chadwell isn't the type to normally run up a score late, which could help late if needed. As a favorite of more than 10 points, the Liberty head coach is just 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%).
I project the Flames closer to +12 and will snag the Minutemen over two touchdowns.
Pick: UMass +14.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Liberty vs UMass Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Liberty vs UMass will be played at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
