Liberty Flames vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
The two preseason favorites in Conference USA are finally meeting on the field Tuesday night, but only one has its lofty dream-season ambitions intact.
Liberty, now 7-0 on the season, is in the mix for a New Year's Six bowl game invitation. The KFord ratings give Liberty a 98% chance of appearing in the CUSA title game and a 36% chance of completing their season undefeated. ESPN's College Football Power Index (FPI) is slightly less bullish on a perfect regular season for the Flames at 24.9%.
Only Ohio State, Oklahoma and Florida State have higher "perfect season" percentages in the eyes of the FPI.
What we know for a fact is that this will be the Flames' final major hurdle before the CUSA title game. The Flames sit as a five-point road favorite tonight and will be favored by double digits in every remaining game, according to Action Network's Betting Power Ratings, KFord and ESPN's PFI.
Likewise, WKU will be a double-digit favorite in every game down the stretch and could turn a disappointing 4-3 start into a 9-3 finish. That would likely translate into an invite to the New Orleans Bowl for WKU for the season straight season. For all up-to-date bowl projections, check out our Brett McMurphy's weekly bowl breakdown.
With so much riding for both teams, it's interesting that Liberty enters as a five-point favorite and continues to take sharp action early in the week. Let's unpack why that is in this Tuesday night CUSA showdown.
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Liberty Flames
The Flames began as an NAIA program back in 1973 but always had the ambition to be something more. Within eight seasons, the Flames made the move up to Division II. Seven years of DII ball was enough for the program from Lynchburg, Virginia. In 1988, it became a D1-AA independent, eventually joining an FCS conference in 2002.
After a rough transition to life in the Big South (21-35), Liberty made the first of many shrewd hires. Upon hiring Danny Rocco, the well-traveled coach won Liberty four straight Big South titles before handing the baton to Turner Gill.
Between the two of them, Liberty won eight conference titles in a 10-year span, once again whetting the administration's appetite for a move up the college football ladder. This FCS success set the stage for the school to jump to the FBS independent ranks. And once again, Liberty swung for the fences, hiring a disgraced coach in desperate need of a reboot.
Hugh Freeze rewarded the school for his second chance by winning it 26 games in three years and helping it achieve an AP Top 25 finish in the program's third year of FBS football.
But Liberty wasn't finished.
It lured Jamey Chadwell away from Coastal Carolina and offered him enough money to keep Power 5 suitors from winning a bidding war. His deal seven-year deal is reportedly worth more than $4 million per season. So far, he's been more than worth it.
Liberty is undefeated, its offense is a joy to watch and its remade defensive front seven has been just good enough to keep teams from running roughshod over it.
On the offensive front, Chadwell's diverse offense looks just as good as it did with Grayson McCall piloting it at Coastal Carolina.
The Flames rank 15th in Offensive Success Rate and second in Havoc avoidance. Plus, they're downright diabolical through the air from an explosive perspective, ranking third in explosives. They've already hit five plays of 50-plus yards through the air (11th).
This is because teams can't take their eyes off a Liberty backfield that's both effective on the ground and loaded with eye candy. Play action, jet sweep fakes, rollouts, the works.
Tennessee transfer Kaidon Salter makes it all work and sits 23rd in QBR and fourth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks with at least four starts. He's also been lights out on the road, pumping in 12 total touchdowns against just one interception.
This offense is a well-oiled machine with Salter at the wheel in Chadwell's ingenious system.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
There are two highly surprising facts about Western Kentucky this season.
The first is that despite the Hilltoppers' insistence on throwing the football early and often, they haven't done it very well this season.
The second is that their much-maligned defense is actually pretty good against the pass, at least by CUSA standards. If you take out its blowout loss to Ohio State in Columbus, WKU performs more like a top-40 pass defense than a team buried in the 60s in most metrics.
There is, however, a big pulsating red alarm flashing for Big Red and WKU this week. Teams with running quarterbacks are tearing them up.
Last week, Jacksonville State's Zion Webb, who entered the game banged up, rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown. South Florida's Byrum Brown found similar success on the ground in the opener, gashing the 'Toppers for 160 yards and two scores.
Given Salter's work thus far, that's really bad news for Tyson Summers and this defensive coaching staff.
The real question in this game is whether or not Western can score enough to keep pace. Without a running game capable of taking advantage of Liberty's only appreciable defensive weakness, I have my doubts.
Austin Reed has regressed considerably from his breakout season in 2022 in which he threw for 4,744 yards and 40 touchdowns. Through seven games, he's currently 57th in QBR and has been picked off in four of his last five starts.
Usually, a year-over-year dip like this has a clear-cut explanation, such as pass-protection or lack of playmakers. But WKU ranks second nationally in sack rate allowed, and Reed has one of the nation's very best receivers in Malachi Corley at his disposal.
At this point, I think it's time to begin questioning first-year offensive coordinator Drew Hollingshead. He simply hasn't been able to dial up as many explosive plays as we're used to seeing from WKU.
Last year, with Ben Arbuckle serving as their OC, the Tops hit 37 pass plays of 30-plus yards, which ranked second nationally. This season under Hollingshead, it's fallen back to the middle of the pack in that regard (42nd).
I also believe that WKU is being propped up by an unsustainable amount of turnover luck. The 'Toppers are ninth nationally in turnover margin (+1) thanks to an opportunistic defense that's averaging 2.5 takeaways per game to rank third nationally.
Liberty is even better in both categories, which means that there's a higher likelihood that turnovers don't play a determining factor in this game.
In an even or +1/-1 turnover game, I'd rather have the more reliable offense, which for once in a CUSA battle isn't Western Kentucky after a dominant multi-year run.
Liberty vs Western Kentucky
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Western Kentucky match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 79 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 57 | |
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Liberty Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 23 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 65 | 132 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 30 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (103) | 25.0 (30) |
| Rush Rate | 68.7% (4) | 36.6% (130) |
Liberty vs Western Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
I entered the season as a Chadwell believer, and he and his Flames squad have done nothing to move me off that position.
And while trends can be overrated as a handicapping tool, I'd be remiss if I skipped over Chadwell's performance as a road favorite. Dating back to 2019, when he took over the Coastal Carolina football program, Chadwell is 13-1 straight up and 9-5 against the spread as a road favorite.
I would play the Flames all the way up to 6.5.
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