The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7, 4-4 Conference USA) take on the Army Black Knights (11-2, 8-1 AAC) in the 2024 Independence Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
To cap off Saturday's jam-packed slate of bowl action, we end up in Shreveport, Louisiana. It'll be some home cooking for Louisiana Tech as it takes on the Army.
This is one of the rare circumstances when entering a bowl game where there are few opt-outs or transfer portal implications, so it's worth keeping track of things to make sure nothing changes.
The Black Knights are overwhelming 14.5-point favorites, and the total is 43.5.
Let's dive into my Louisiana Tech vs. Army predictions and college football picks for the Independence Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Prediction, Best Bet
- Louisiana Tech vs Army Pick: Under 43.5
My Army vs. Louisiana Tech best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Odds, Spread
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Spread: Army -14.5, Louisiana Tech +14.5
- Over/Under: 44.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Army ML -800, Louisiana Tech ML +550
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Army Black Knights Preview
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Bulldogs were a five-win team, but they got the call to sub in for Marshall after the Thundering Herd had opted out. With that said, the Bulldogs have a few key defensive starters who are not suiting up, according to Stuckey's opt-out and transfer portal tracker:
- Starting DT David Blay
- Starting CB Cedric Woods
- Starting DE J'Dan Burnett
That's a problem against Army, which appears to be heading into the bowl game at full strength, minus running back Kanye Udoh. I have legitimate concerns on both sides of the ball for Louisiana Tech, which is why it's a massive underdog.
First things first, let’s get it over with and talk about the pathetic Bulldogs offense. They rank outside the top 100 in almost every offensive category, including Havoc allowed, Finishing Drives allowed, Quality Drives allowed, and Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed.
They don't do much of anything well on offense, and their special teams are also some of the worst in the entire country.
Thst's a horrible sign against a fundamentally sound Army team.
I don't expect Louisiana Tech's offense to do much offensively despite Army's defense being vulnerable against the run.
I was, however, impressed by its defensive metrics.
The Bulldogs are the complete polar opposite on the defensive side of the ball, as they rank in the top 30 in many defensive metrics. These metrics include Rush Success Rate allowed, Line Yards allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed and Quality Drives allowed.
The most significant metric I took out was their success at preventing Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. Why is that important? The service academy offense typically likes to control the clock and have the ball as long as possible, so if LA Tech can limit the number of drives that Army can consistently build, that should at least keep it in the game.
The problem is, the offense is so bad that I have zero faith in them, scoring points and even taking advantage of a bad run defense.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview
It was a bittersweet ending to Army's season, as it lost to Navy two weeks ago. Army was a favorite heading into the matchup and looked superior throughout the regular season.
That said, I know Army will be motivated heading into the matchup. I'm sure it's disappointed it's not playing the Thundering Herd, but I don't think that will cause the Knights to lack motivation.
The offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, was a successful unit throughout the regular season.
The Black Knights ranked inside the top 20 in Rush Success Rate, Line Yards and Havoc allowed. They were also excellent at finishing and sustaining drives, which is essential for a service academy offense.
Army should be able to control the clock here and do enough on offense to get itself into scoring positions and keep its defense off the field.
I will say it's up for a challenge against a good Bulldogs defense, but they're also missing some key defensive starters that could impact their overall level of play.
Defensively, Army truly struggled against the run. The good news is that the Louisiana Tech offense is completely inept, and I don't expect it to sustain any kind of success.
Army was also 33rd in Pass Success Rate allowed, but more importantly, it ranked inside the top 15 in Finishing Drives allowed and Quality Drives allowed. That leads me to believe that the Bulldogs will have little to no chance of scoring a significant amount of points in the contest.
I’ve seen enough from Army throughout the regular season that I believe it will have its way with the Bulldogs here. However, I can't lay over two touchdowns, as it goes against my rule of laying over double digits with a service academy team.
Army vs. Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Army Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 14 | |
Army Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 54 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 16 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 57 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 60 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (79) | 31.2 (133) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (75) | 86% (1) |
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Picks, Best Bets
I saw some sharp money come across the counter on the over in the matchup, but I will still take the under.
The total has crept up to 43.5, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a tick up to 44 at any moment now. Once it reaches 44, I'll look to take the under.
I don't believe in the Louisiana Tech offense, and I can't see it having any motivation, especially since it wasn’t even supposed to be in a bowl game until a couple of weeks ago. The offense is completely broken, and even though I worry about Army's ability to stop the run, I don't think that will play a factor here.
Army should do enough on offense, especially with the defensive starters opting out for Louisiana Tech.
I don't think Army will put up a boatload of points here, but it should be enough to win the game, and I have faith that it will be a score low enough that the number stays below the total.
Pick: Under 43.5
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Streaming, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Channel
| Location: | Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Betting Trends to Know
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Weather Forecast
