The Louisville Cardinals (4-3, 2-2 ACC) look to rebound from their loss to Miami when they travel to Chestnut Hill to take on the Boston College Eagles (4-3, 1-2) on Friday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Cardinals came up short in their upset bid against Miami last weekend to fall to 4-3 on the season.
Head coach Jeff Brohm certainly had higher aspirations than where Louisville is currently sitting in the ACC, and this isn't the greatest of spots either on a short week with a road trip to Clemson on deck.
Boston College started out incredibly hot this season by beating Florida State on the road, but lately, everything has gone downhill for the Eagles.
They have lost their last two games to Virginia and Virginia Tech, so they really need a win on Friday night to get their season back on track.
Louisville enters as a -7.5 favorite with the over/under set at 53.5.
Continue reading for my Louisville vs. Boston College predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
Louisville vs. Boston College Prediction and Best Bet
- Louisville vs. Boston College Pick: Over 53
My Boston College vs. Louisville best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs. Boston College Odds, Lines, Spread
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -112 | 54 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -108 | 54 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Louisville vs. Boston College Spread: Louisville -7 · Boston College +7
- Louisville vs. Boston College Over/Under: 54 Points
- Louisville vs. Boston College Moneyline: Louisville ML -290 · Boston College ML +235
Louisville vs. Boston College NCAAF Preview
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Louisville couldn't stop anything Miami did in its loss last week. The Hurricanes got whatever they wanted offensively, as it averaged 9.3 yards per play. But most importantly for this game, they averaged six yards per carry and went for well over 200 yards rushing.
That's important because Boston College runs the ball at a very high rate, and Thomas Castellanos is a very dangerous runner at quarterback.
Louisville has faced a lot of mobile quarterbacks this season but hasn't done a good job of keeping them in check. If you remove sack yardage, this is what some of them have done to the Cardinals defense:
| Opposing QB | Rush Yards | Yards per Carry |
|---|---|---|
| Haynes King, Georgia Tech | 58 | 4.5 |
| Riley Leonard, Notre Dame | 55 | 4.1 |
| Kevin Jennings, SMU | 109 | 8.4 |
| Cam Ward, Miami | 48 | 6.9 |
The other problem Louisville has had is its secondary has really struggled once it reached the tougher part of the schedule. Louisville has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 8.2 yards per attempt with a rank of 85th in EPA/Pass allowed.
Brohm's offense, though, has had no problems moving the ball.
The Cardinals rank 13th nationally in EPA/Play because they have ripped off big play after big play. They rank second in the country in Explosiveness, and a lot of that has to do with Tyler Shough's ability to throw the ball down the field.
He's been one of the better quarterbacks in college football this season, putting up a PFF Passing Grade of 89.9 with 15 big-time throws compared to only four turnover-worthy plays.
The Texas Tech transfer has also been superb when throwing the ball over 10 yards in the air.
Boston College Eagles Betting Preview
Boston College has really struggled to run the ball this season, especially over the last few games.
The Eagles averaged under 3.5 yards per carry against both Virginia and Virginia Tech, which meant all the pressure has been on Castellanos to beat teams with his arm. He hasn't found a way to do that yet.
However, Louisville has a very average run defense, and most importantly, hasn't been the best at neutralizing mobile quarterbacks.
Still, Boston College's best path to victory here is throwing the ball given how bad Louisville's defense has been.
Castellanos loves to throw the ball down the field, but he's not always the most accurate passer. He's averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, and almost 40% of his pass attempts this season have gone for at least 10 yards in the air.
That's why Boston College ranks seventh in explosive passing. It's worth noting, though, that Castellanos has seven turnover-worthy plays on the season.
Defensively, Boston College has been really stout up front, ranking 21st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
However, in their last game against Virginia Tech, the Hokies ran all over them for accumulating 368 yards on the ground while averaging 9.2 yards per carry.
Louisville ranks 26th in EPA/Rush and is coming off back-to-back games against Miami and Virginia where it has averaged over five yards per carry.
The Eagles are likely going to have some difficulties shutting down Shough in this game because Boston College's secondary has been well below average and has faced only one above-average quarterback this season in Missouri's Brady Cook. Cook ended up averaging 8.8 yards per attempt while completing 70% of his passes and posting his best PFF Passing Grade of the season.
Louisville vs. Boston College Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Boston College match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 86 | |
Boston College Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 88 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 52 | 70 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 36 |
| Middle 8 | 64 | 76 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (82) | 29.2 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (111) | 63% (14) |
Louisville vs. Boston College Pick and Betting Analysis
Neither of these teams rates highly in terms of a PFF Tackling Grade or generating Havoc, which typically means there are a lot of missed tackles and big plays.
Castellanos and Shough have fantastic matchups against the opposing secondary, and this game won't end with Castellanos throwing a bunch of screens or five-yard outs. He's going to attack Louisville deep, but the Cardinals have proven this season that they can't stop big plays through the air.
Meanwhile, Shough should be able to continue to be effective in throwing the ball deep. Boston College's secondary ranks 65th in Explosive Passing allowed even with facing a lot of below-average quarterbacks.
If last weekend's performance for Boston College's run defense is any indication, then Louisville's rushing attack — which has been impressive over the last few games — will run wild in this game.
The pace is going to be slower than normal, but there will be a lot of big plays in this game.
I have 56.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 53 points and would play it to 54.
Pick: Over 53 (Play to 54)
Louisville vs. Boston College Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 25 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Louisville will take on Boston College in Chestnut Hill on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisville vs. Boston College Betting Trends
- 64% of bets and 78% of the money are on Louisville to cover the spread
- 83% of bets and 43% of the money on the moneyline are on Louisville to win outright
- 58% of bets and 91% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Louisville vs. Boston College Weather
