Louisville vs Clemson Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 52 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 52 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Following its first loss of the season, Clemson hosts Louisville in an ACC Atlantic matchup.
Louisville enters this game with a 6-3 record and is riding a four-game winning streak. The Cardinals are 6-3 against the spread and have gone under in five games this season.
Clemson comes into this matchup with an 8-1 record, including a 6-0 record in conference play. The Tigers are 4-5 against the spread and have gone over in five games this year.
It will be a windy afternoon in Clemson, South Carolina and that could impact the scoring potential. The current forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s and crosswinds ranging from 9.6 to 10.1 miles per hour.
While the winds are unlikely to have a big impact on the passing game, they could limit the scoring potential on special teams.
Louisville Cardinals
Scott Satterfield's fourth season at Louisville is undeniably his best so far. The Cardinals are averaging 30.2 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. They have a 42% Success Rate and average 4.07 points per opportunity. They also average 26.3 seconds per play.
Louisville has averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game this year with Malik Cunningham leading the attack. He's completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 7.4 yards per attempt. He's thrown eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
As a team, Louisville has a 43% Passing Success Rate and it averages 3.3 20+ yard passes per game.
Cunningham's biggest impact can be felt in the run game, as he's also the team's leading rusher with 536 yards and 11 scores. Three other players have at least 50 rush attempts and 275 rushing yards.
As a team, the Cards have a 42% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.07 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed an 18.3% Stuff Rate.
The Cardinals' defense has been stronger this season than in recent years. They allow an average of 19.4 points per game and 5.3 yards per play. They allow a 39% Success Rate and generate Havoc on 20% of plays, including 24 turnovers.
Their biggest area of success has been their ability to limit their opponents' Finishing Drives, as teams have averaged 2.59 points per opportunity.
If there is an area of concern, it's that the Cardinals allow an average of 5.1 20+ yard plays per game.
Clemson Tigers
Despite suffering a loss last week, Clemson still sits in a dominant position within the ACC.
The Tigers average 34.6 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. They have a 44% Success Rate and average 4.3 points per opportunity. They also average 25.9 seconds per play.
DJ Uiagalelei has shown improvement from a disastrous 2021 campaign. He's completing 64.6% of his passes for an average of 7.3 yards per attempt. And he's done a better job maintaining possession, with just five interceptions compared to 18 touchdowns.
As a team, Clemson has a 41% Passing Success Rate and it averages 3.3 20+ yard passes per game.
Will Shipley has been the key piece to a Clemson offense that's averaging 39 rush attempts per game. He has run the ball 135 times for 802 yards and has 11 touchdowns.
As a team, Clemson has a 35% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line generates an average of 3.15 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 14.8% Stuff Rate.
Defense remains the key to Clemson's success. The Tigers allow an average of 21.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. They allow a 39% Success Rate and 3.41 points per opportunity. Finally, they allow an average of 4.3 20+ yard plays per game.
One key to their success has been the Tigers' 21% Havoc rate.
Louisville vs Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Clemson match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 24 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 23 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 31 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Clemson Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 36 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 55 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 3 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 121 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 88 | 46 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 31 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.3 (62) | 25.9 (54) |
| Rush Rate | 58.7% (31) | 54.3% (62) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Louisville vs Clemson Betting Pick
The market is split in this matchup, with 50% of bets on both teams. However, sharps appear to be taking the points with the underdog. 70% of the money is backing Louisville to cover the seven-point spread, which initially opened at 8.5.
For both of these teams, defense is the strength, and both defenses hold statistical advantages against the opposing offense.
Pair this with the non-ideal weather conditions, and scoring may be a difficult ask for either offense.
And that's why my preferred play is on the under 52, and I'd play it as low at 50.
Pick: Under 52 (Play to 50) |
