The Louisville Cardinals (3-0) look to remain undefeated when they travel to South Bend, Indiana, to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) at 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
The Cardinals took care of business against Georgia Tech, but it wasn't pretty. Tyler Shough had a good game, but Louisville's biggest problem was establishing the run.
Well, it's about to get even more challenging against one of the nation's best rush defenses.
Notre Dame finally cleared the hurdle and beat a MAC team, dominating Miami (OH), 28-3. The loss to Northern Illinois earlier in the season means the Irish must be perfect the rest of the way to have a shot at making the College Football Playoff.
They lost on the road to Louisville last season 33-20, so they will be out for revenge on Saturday.
Notre Dame is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with the moneyline at -235. The total also checks in at 46.5.
Here's my Louisville vs. Notre Dame prediction and pick.
Louisville vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Louisville vs Notre Dame Pick: Under 46.5
My Louisville vs Notre Dame best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs Notre Dame Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
- Louisville vs Notre Dame Point Spread: Louisville +6.5 (-110) · Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)
- Louisville vs Notre Dame Total: Over/Under 46.5
- Louisville vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Louisville +190 · Notre Dame -235
Louisville vs Notre Dame Preview
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Run the Ball, Stop the Run
Before the game against Georgia Tech, Louisville was putting up excellent offensive numbers, but it was against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. They ran all over those two teams, but the Cardinals' rushing attack was shut down against a feeble Georgia Tech front — Donald Chaney was limited to 23 yards on 10 carries, and Louisville ended up with only 57 total rushing yards.
That's concerning, given that they must rely on their rushing attack in this game with the poor weather conditions and Notre Dame's elite secondary.
Tyler Shough must be just as effective as last weekend but under more difficult conditions.
Shough has battled injuries throughout his career, but he's an above-average quarterback when healthy. He has an 88.4 PFF passing grade this season, averaging an absurd 11.2 YPA — but you can take that with a grain of salt, considering the secondaries he's faced.
Louisville's defensive front is perfect and has effectively stopped the run. The Cardinals limited a rock-solid Georgia Tech rushing attack to only 2.6 yards per carry. They rank fourth nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and second in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The Cardinals can beat Notre Dame if they limit chunk rushing plays, given Riley Leonard is very limited as a passer.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Limited Leonard
Notre Dame's offense took a step back after its best game of the season against Purdue. At this point, it really comes down to whether it can run the ball effectively with Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard.
The Irish have done that effectively in three of their four games this season. They averaged 7.5 YPC last week against Miami (OH). However, they still only rank 61st nationally in Rush Success Rate — they're too reliant on explosives, as they rank second nationally in Rush Explosiveness.
When Notre Dame faces a solid rush defense, Leonard can't beat opponents over the top. That's what happened against Northern Illinois and Miami (OH). That's been a theme for Leonard dating back to his Duke days.
He's averaging 5.6 YPA with a 58.4 PFF Passing grade. He only completed four of his 19 20-plus-air-yard attempts last year with the Blue Devils, and he's 1-for-4 on such passes this year.
Louisville has an excellent rush defense. Notre Dame will be in trouble if it has to rely too heavily on Leonard.
Notre Dame's defense is elite. The Irish have allowed 10 total points across the past two games. The secondary ranks fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and second in PFF's Passing Defense grades.
However, I'm unsure if the Irish can stop the run. Their rush defense metrics have been shaky, although they've contained chunk rushing plays, ranking 15th in rushing Explosiveness allowed.
Louisville vs Notre Dame
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 15 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 43 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 7 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 2 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 109 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 67 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 32.0 (128) | 28.4 (86) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (81) | 55% (51) |
Louisville vs Notre Dame Pick & Prediction
Weather will play a big part in this game because it will be very windy. The effects of Hurricane Helene are expected to hit Indiana on Saturday, with projected winds up to 20 mph during the game and gusts reaching as high as 39 mph, per AccuWeather.
That will take away both passing attacks, so it comes down to who can run the ball more effectively.
Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in rushing Explosiveness allowed, and both offenses play slow.
Louisville would have the edge in terms of rushing. But in their first big test against Georgia Tech last weekend, the Cardinals were inefficient, unable to average even three YPC.
Wind is the most significant weather factor in totals. If the wind blows at 10 mph or faster, the under has hit at a very high rate over a large sample size.
I only have 41.2 points projected for this game.
Pick: Under 46.5
How to Watch Louisville vs Notre Dame Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Louisville vs Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Louisville is 3-0 SU and ATS.
- Notre Dame is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS.
- Louisville games are 2-1 to the over.
- Notre Dame games are 3-1 to the under.
