The Louisville Cardinals (3-2) cross state lines to the Commonwealth of Virginia for an ACC showdown against the Virginia Cavaliers (4-1).
Louisville has been a fixture in the AP Top 25 poll after a 10-win season last year, but two straight losses have dropped it out of the rankings, and now 4-1 Virginia enters this game with a better record.
Louisville is a 7.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under is 54.5 points. You can stream the game live on ACC Network at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Will the Cardinals bounce back on the road? Or will the Cavaliers continue their winning ways?
Find out in my Louisville vs. Virginia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Louisville vs Virginia Odds, Lines, Pick
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -260 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +210 |
- Louisville vs Virginia Point Spread: Louisville -7.5 (-110) · Virginia +7.5 (-110)
- Louisville vs Virginia over/under: 54.5 points
- Louisville vs Virginia moneyline: Louisville -275
- Louisville vs Virginia pick: Louisville -7.5
My Louisville vs Virginia best bet is on the Cardinals to cover, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs Virginia Preview
Louisville Football
Louisville's 2024 college football season started well. It torched two lower-tier teams and then beat Georgia Tech 31-19 for its first ACC win.
However, consecutive losses to Notre Dame and SMU have the Cardinals reeling, and a road trip to Virginia does not look as easy as it did before the season.
One consistent bright spot for Louisville has been its offense. The Cardinals score 38.6 points per game and have managed at least 24 points in each game this season. They rank second nationally in Quality Drives, 29th in Rush Success Rate, and a respectable 46th in Pass Success Rate.
Jeff Brohm's quarterback-friendly offense has been beneficial for transfer quarterback Tyler Shough. He's thrown for 1,443 yards, 13 touchdowns and two picks, and Ja'Corey Brooks has been his top target with 25 catches for 489 yards and six scores. Shough and the passing attack are helped out by a run game that averages 5.3 yards per carry.
On the defensive side of the ball, Louisville seems to be very average. Giving up only 19 points to Georgia Tech was a good showing, but it doesn't hold up as well after allowing 30+ points in the next two games. The Cardinals rank 39th nationally in EPA per play allowed, and the Action Network metrics tell the same story. They rank among the top 30 FBS teams in Rush Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Quality Drives allowed but hover around 90th in Finishing Drives allowed, Pass Success rate allowed, and Havoc rate.
Virginia Football
The Virginia Cavaliers have played like a competent Power 4 football team in their 4-1 start. That's an excellent place to be for this program after winning five combined games in the last two seasons.
UVA is off to a 2-0 start in ACC play and has found a quarterback in Anthony Colandrea. The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for 1,211 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions while adding 158 yards and two scores with his legs.
Colandrea is prone to some mistakes and isn't the most consistent quarterback out there, but he routinely gives the Cavs a chance by escaping pressure and making plays downfield. Wide receiver Malachi Fields is his top target, with 28 catches for 412 yards and two touchdowns.
However, Virginia's lack of offensive consistency is reflected in its 74th-ranked Rush Success Rate, 77th-ranked Pass Success Rate, and 84th-ranked Finishing Drives mark. Add in the Cavaliers' subpar defensive metrics, and it shows that their record may be a bit inflated.
Louisville vs Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Virginia match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 75 | |
Virginia Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 30 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 30 |
| PFF Coverage | 115 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 99 | 43 |
| Middle 8 | 76 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.0 (122) | 25.7 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (98) | 55% (59) |
Louisville vs Virginia Prediction
I think water finds its level in this game.
The only reason the Cardinals have a worse record than the Cavaliers is because they have played better competition. Louisville's losses are to ranked Notre Dame and SMU teams, and it also has a win over Georgia Tech.
Meanwhile, Maryland convincingly handled Virginia, and the Cavs recorded close wins over Wake Forest and Boston College.
There's a reason why the Cardinals are such big road favorites. Look for Louisville to build a significant lead and cover on the road against Virginia.
Pick: Louisville -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
Louisville vs Virginia Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Louisville vs Virginia will be played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ACC Network.
Louisville vs Virginia Weather
