The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl should be good, as the Louisville Cardinals (8-4, 5-3 ACC) take on the Washington Huskies (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten). Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on CBS.
Louisville competed with some of the best teams in the country in the ACC this season, whereas Washington had an up-and-down inaugural season in the Big Ten.
However, the nuances of bowl season have led to oddsmakers making this matchup much closer than their records would indicate. Louisville enters as a -1 favorite with the over/under set at 49.5.
There has been a lot of movement in the spread, but the personnel movement in this game has created value from another angle.
Let's take a closer look at my Louisville vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Sun Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Louisville vs Washington Prediction and Best Bet
- Louisville vs. Washington Pick: 1H Under 24.5
My Washington vs. Louisville best bet is on both teams to stay under the first-half total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisville vs Washington Odds
Louisville Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +100 |
Washington Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -120 |
- Louisville vs Washington Spread: Louisville +1 (-105) · Washington -1 (-115)
- Louisville vs Washington Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Louisville vs Washington Moneyline: Louisville +100 · Washington -120
Louisville vs Washington Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: New Offense Could Struggle
Louisville was a fun team to watch in the ACC this season because it had one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Cardinals finished 13th in points per game and seventh in yards per play.
However, their offense will look very different for this matchup. Louisville will be without starting quarterback Tyler Shough and top wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks.
These absences will change their passing game's dynamic, but it may have struggled anyway. Washington's secondary was elite this season, ranking fifth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 10th in yards per pass allowed.
Harrison Bailey will start under center. He has attempted 11 passes over the last two seasons, so running back Isaac Brown should see a lot of work.
Brown had a tremendous freshman season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Louisville will have the edge in the trenches, so expect it to lean on the run game and put together long, methodical drives.
Washington Huskies Betting Preview: 3rd-Down Conversions Are Key
We've mentioned how impressive the Huskies' secondary has been, but their offense's inconsistency was the biggest reason they finished .500. They struggled to run the ball, ranking 83rd in yards per rush, which put a lot of emphasis on their passing attack to make things happen.
Starting quarterback Will Rogers was benched in the season finale against Oregon, but backup freshman Demond Williams Jr. thrived in that opportunity. He went 17-for-20, averaging 10.1 yards per completion against one of the best teams in the country.
That performance earned him the chance to start in this matchup, and he could find success against the Louisville secondary. The Cardinals ranked 64th in Pass Success rate allowed.
The game could hinge on the Huskies' ability to convert on third down. Washington ranked 106th in third-down conversion rate, while Louisville ranked 39th in opponent third-down conversion rate.
Given Williams' inexperience, it may take him some time to establish himself on this big stage, which will only help our angle.
Louisville vs Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Washington match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense | Defense | Edge | |
Rush Success | 19 | 123 | |
Line Yards | 58 | 106 | |
Pass Success | 33 | 5 | |
Havoc | 16 | 101 | |
Finishing Drives | 45 | 79 | |
Quality Drives | 3 | 79 |
Washington Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Offense | Defense | Edge | |
Rush Success | 28 | 44 | |
Line Yards | 27 | 48 | |
Pass Success | 23 | 64 | |
Havoc | 81 | 48 | |
Finishing Drives | 102 | 96 | |
Quality Drives | 46 | 38 |
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling | 72 | 1 |
PFF Coverage | 48 | 17 |
Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 126 |
Middle 8 | 11 | 82 |
Seconds per Play | 27.1 (70) | 28.1 (97) |
Rush Rate | 49% (95) | 50% (103) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Louisville vs Washington Prediction
The total has come down quite a bit due to the opt-outs on Louisville's offense, but the first-half market came out late and is in line with the current full-game total.
However, I expect this total to continue to fall.
Louisville's offense is a significant question mark with only one proven avenue for success that will chew the clock if utilized. As for the Huskies, Williams was impressed in his brief stint, but can a freshman get off to a hot start in his first career in a bowl game?
I'm willing to bet against that and capitalize on the offensive uncertainty in this matchup. Take the first-half under; it will take time for these offenses to find their footing.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 (-124 · Play to 23.5)
Louisville vs Washington Game Info and How To Watch
Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 31 |
Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Louisville meets Washington in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 2 p.m. ET on CBS.