Louisville vs Washington Prediction, Pick and Odds For The 2024 Sun Bowl

Louisville vs Washington Prediction, Pick and Odds For The 2024 Sun Bowl article feature image
Credit:

Getty Images. Design by Action Network. Pictured: Louisville’s Isaac Brown (left) and Washington’s Demond Williams (right).

This article contains predictions for an old game.

The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl should be good, as the Louisville Cardinals (8-4, 5-3 ACC) take on the Washington Huskies (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten). Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on CBS.

Louisville competed with some of the best teams in the country in the ACC this season, whereas Washington had an up-and-down inaugural season in the Big Ten.

However, the nuances of bowl season have led to oddsmakers making this matchup much closer than their records would indicate. Louisville enters as a -1 favorite with the over/under set at 49.5.

There has been a lot of movement in the spread, but the personnel movement in this game has created value from another angle.

Let's take a closer look at my Louisville vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Sun Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31.


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Louisville vs Washington Prediction and Best Bet

  • Louisville vs. Washington Pick: 1H Under 24.5

My Washington vs. Louisville best bet is on both teams to stay under the first-half total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.


Louisville vs Washington Odds

Louisville Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 31
2 p.m. ET
CBS
Washington Logo
Louisville Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1
-105
50.5
-110 / -110
+100
Washington Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1
-115
50.5
-110 / -110
-120
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
bet365 Logo
  • Louisville vs Washington Spread: Louisville +1 (-105) · Washington -1 (-115)
  • Louisville vs Washington Over/Under: 50.5 Points
  • Louisville vs Washington Moneyline: Louisville +100 · Washington -120


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Louisville vs Washington Spread and Over/Under Analysis

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: New Offense Could Struggle

Louisville was a fun team to watch in the ACC this season because it had one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Cardinals finished 13th in points per game and seventh in yards per play.

However, their offense will look very different for this matchup. Louisville will be without starting quarterback Tyler Shough and top wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks.

These absences will change their passing game's dynamic, but it may have struggled anyway. Washington's secondary was elite this season, ranking fifth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 10th in yards per pass allowed.

Harrison Bailey will start under center. He has attempted 11 passes over the last two seasons, so running back Isaac Brown should see a lot of work.

Brown had a tremendous freshman season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Louisville will have the edge in the trenches, so expect it to lean on the run game and put together long, methodical drives.


Washington Huskies Betting Preview: 3rd-Down Conversions Are Key

We've mentioned how impressive the Huskies' secondary has been, but their offense's inconsistency was the biggest reason they finished .500. They struggled to run the ball, ranking 83rd in yards per rush, which put a lot of emphasis on their passing attack to make things happen.

Starting quarterback Will Rogers was benched in the season finale against Oregon, but backup freshman Demond Williams Jr. thrived in that opportunity. He went 17-for-20, averaging 10.1 yards per completion against one of the best teams in the country.

That performance earned him the chance to start in this matchup, and he could find success against the Louisville secondary. The Cardinals ranked 64th in Pass Success rate allowed.

The game could hinge on the Huskies' ability to convert on third down. Washington ranked 106th in third-down conversion rate, while Louisville ranked 39th in opponent third-down conversion rate.

Given Williams' inexperience, it may take him some time to establish himself on this big stage, which will only help our angle.


Louisville vs Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Washington match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success19123
Line Yards58106
Pass Success335
Havoc16101
Finishing Drives4579
Quality Drives379
Washington Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success2844
Line Yards2748
Pass Success2364
Havoc8148
Finishing Drives10296
Quality Drives4638
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling721
PFF Coverage4817
Special Teams SP+106126
Middle 81182
Seconds per Play27.1 (70)28.1 (97)
Rush Rate49% (95)50% (103)

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How To Make College Football Picks For My Louisville vs Washington Prediction

The total has come down quite a bit due to the opt-outs on Louisville's offense, but the first-half market came out late and is in line with the current full-game total.

However, I expect this total to continue to fall.

Louisville's offense is a significant question mark with only one proven avenue for success that will chew the clock if utilized. As for the Huskies, Williams was impressed in his brief stint, but can a freshman get off to a hot start in his first career in a bowl game?

I'm willing to bet against that and capitalize on the offensive uncertainty in this matchup. Take the first-half under; it will take time for these offenses to find their footing.

Pick: 1H Under 24.5 (-124 · Play to 23.5)


Louisville vs Washington Game Info and How To Watch

Location:Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Date:Tuesday, Dec. 31
Kickoff Time:2 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:CBS

Louisville meets Washington in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 2 p.m. ET on CBS.


Louisville vs Washington Betting Trends To Know


Louisville vs Washington Weather

Get the latest coverage on NCAAF Weather.

About the Author
Doug is a college football, college basketball and MLB contributor at the Action Network. He produces content centered around actionable advice with the goal of helping readers become better bettors. He studied journalism at Rutgers and has previously covered the New York Mets, Indianapolis Colts, and Mid-Atlantic region for Perfect Game.

Follow Doug Ziefel @DougZiefel on Twitter/X.

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