The LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-1 SEC) host the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2) in a top-15 SEC clash Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
With 2 losses overall and in the SEC, this essentially serves as a College Football Playoff knockout game for Alabama. Can Kalen DeBoer's team step up when it matters?
Oddsmakers seem to think so, as the Crimson Tide enter Saturday as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 58.5.
Continue reading to see our staff's LSU vs. Alabama picks and college football predictions for their game in NCAAF Week 11.
LSU vs. Alabama Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
- LSU vs. Alabama Spread: LSU +2.5 · Alabama -2.5
- LSU vs. Alabama Total: Over/Under 58.5
- LSU vs. Alabama Moneyline: LSU ML +122 · Alabama ML -145
By Pete Ruden
Few games throughout the college football season have higher stakes than LSU vs. Alabama. In fact, the winner of this matchup has gone on to play in the SEC Championship in each of the last six seasons.
The same could be true this year.
The Tigers enter with one loss, sitting with Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Texas atop the SEC standings. This game could be more important for the Tide, though, as they will take the field in Death Valley with two SEC losses and their backs against the wall.
Both teams come into this game off a bye, but the Tide are the side that's riding high.
Alabama most recently throttled Missouri, 34-0, showing that it's a true national title contender.
LSU, meanwhile, suffered a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M its last time out in a game that put the winner in the driver's seat to make the SEC Championship. However, history is on the Tigers' side, as head coach Brian Kelly has gone 20-11-1 against the spread when he has extra time to prepare.
Will that help the Bayou Bengals this time around? That remains to be seen.
We polled eight members of our college football staff to see how they're betting this colossal conference clash, so let's dive into their picks and analysis.
LSU vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions
LSU vs. Alabama Spread
Our Spread Pick: Alabama -3
Our staff likes Alabama. On the road. In Death Valley.
Both teams are coming off a bye, but Brian Kelly-led teams are nails on extra rest (23-13-1 ATS with eight or more days). Our Action PRO Projections make LSU a slight home favorite over the Tide (-0.7).
Ultimately, I think there’s one question that decides the outcome: Which younger, relatively inexperienced secondary holds up better?
The Tide’s numbers look good (10th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, 22nd nationally in EPA per Pass allowed), but they haven’t been tested much.
LSU has an elite quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier and two of the nation’s best pass-blocking tackles — the Tigers will be targeting Bama’s cornerbacks.
The good news for the Tide is that LSU hasn’t run the ball effectively (110th in Rush Success Rate, 112th in EPA per Rush), and Alabama’s front seven has been vulnerable to smart, efficient rushing attacks (e.g., Vanderbilt).
LSU’s secondary has faced three borderline-elite passing attacks and held up OK. The Tigers allowed 380 yards to Miller Moss and USC in the opener, 280 to Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss, and 240 yards to Taylen Green and Arkansas.
Overall, they rank 97th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, but they’ve managed to keep things in front of them, ranking 45th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. That’ll be key against Jalen Milroe's ever-elite deep ball.
Ultimately, our staff is willing to wager that Alabama’s secondary answers the call.
LSU vs. Alabama Over/Under
Over 58.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 58.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 58.5
Our staff likes the under. I have to disagree. Four of the past five LSU-Alabama games have gone over the closing total.
These are two relatively untested, inexperienced, vulnerable secondaries battling elite SEC quarterbacks.
LSU’s front seven can’t stop the rush, which won’t play against Jalen Milroe’s rushing prowess. Alabama doesn’t have an elite pass rush, which won’t play against LSU’s elite pass-blocking offensive line.
Our Action PRO projections make this total 60 rather than 58.5.
To play devil’s advocate against me, Alabama’s defense has been elite early in games, posting first-quarter shutouts in four of its five SEC games — another would make it challenging for the over to cash.
Otherwise, I can’t make an argument on behalf of my fellow staff members. But maybe you, our loyal reader, believe differently.
