There may not be two teams in the SEC desperate for victory than the LSU Tigers (6-3, 3-2 SEC) and Florida Gators (4-5, 2-4).
While the conference standings could see a 7-way tie for the conference championship game, the Gators are looking to rebound from a blowout at Texas in Week 11. Head coach Billy Napier received a vote of confidence from the administration but still must win 2-of-3 to make bowl season.
LSU will attempt to rebound in the Swamp after being run out of its own building against Alabama. Despite 3 losses on the season, the Tigers can still reach the SEC Championship game in a rare scenario, as the tiebreaker system looks at the strength of opponent.
Struggles with mobile quarterbacks continue after two straight losses against the Tide and Texas A&M. Head coach Brian Kelly was in a similar spot in 2023, losing to Alabama by two touchdowns before beating Florida by 17 the following week.
LSU opened as a 5.5-point favorite, a number that has been bet down to 4.5 as of writing. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 55.
Let's take a look at my LSU vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, Nov. 16.
LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators Prediction, Picks
- LSU vs. Florida Pick: Florida +4.5
My Florida vs. LSU best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Lines
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +135 |
- LSU vs. Florida Spread: LSU -3.5 · Florida +3.5
- LSU vs. Florida Over/Under: 57.5
- LSU vs. Florida Moneyline: LSU -160 · Florida +135
LSU vs. Florida Week 12 Betting Preview
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
LSU has committed six turnovers in the past two games, an obstacle that has contributed to allowing an average of 40 points to Alabama and Texas A&M.
The Tigers defense under new coordinator Blake Baker has improved from 2023, specifically with a top 20 Havoc ranking that is a product of a top-10 pass rush.
There are other gaps in the defense, as the ability to limit rush explosives and Quality Drives continues to plague the LSU defense.
Mobile quarterbacks have been an issue through the SEC stretch, allowing Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe to log 185 yards on the ground with four touchdowns.
A similar scenario played out the last time the Tigers hit the road, as Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed came into the middle of the game and finished with three rushing touchdowns.
The troubles are not limited to just the past two weeks, as LSU allowed 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers in Week 3.
Another factor converging on the Tigers is quarterback Garrett Nussmeier's spiraling turnover-worthy play rate. LSU has one of the most methodical offenses in the nation — a rank of 12th in Quality Drives — all on the arm of Nussmeier.
The Tigers have abandoned the rush in recent games, as the team ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency with a decreasing run rate of 38% per game.
Deontae Lawson picks off Garrett Nussmeier in the endzone for his first ever career INT!
pic.twitter.com/obb7fUqbq4— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) November 10, 2024
The trouble for LSU in the passing game is the declining efficiency in pressured passing attempts. Nussmeier has a spike in turnover-worthy plays from 1.9% in a clean pocket to 6.5% with pressure.
From a season-long perspective, the offensive line ranks 23rd in pass blocking, but 31-of-96 total pressures allowed have come in the last two games against the Aggies and Crimson Tide.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Health is the primary concern for Napier, as Florida sits in the middle of a brutal scheduling stretch.
The availability report read longer than a Lord of the Rings novel, as neither running back Montrell Johnson nor quarterback DJ Lagway saw playing time in Austin. Starting right guard Damieon George also missed after playing 42 snaps against Georgia in Week 10.
The Florida offense was a skeleton crew against Texas, but an unexpected bright spot came from the running back position, with Ja'Kobi Jackson going for over 100 yards on 19 carries.
The freshman had a second consecutive productive game, maintaining an average of 3.5 yards after first contact.
JA’KOBI JACKSON RUNS IT IN AND THEY’RE TIED IN JACKSONVILLE pic.twitter.com/5QbO1lG9Bz
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 2, 2024
Napier was cognizant of the defensive issues against Texas, indicating that miscommunication and poor tackling fundamentals contributed to the loss. Florida missed as many tackles against Texas (17) than it did against Georgia and Kentucky combined.
Injuries were a concern on the defensive side of the ball as well, particularly in the secondary without starting cornerbacks Jason Marshall and Devin Moore.
Florida vs. LSU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and LSU match up statistically:
LSU Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 78 | |
Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 100 | 92 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 114 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 49 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 73 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (59) | 27.7 (83) |
| Rush Rate | 39% (130) | 57% (46) |
How to Bet My LSU vs. Florida Pick
The quarterback and cornerback positions are critical for Florida against LSU.
Considering the Tigers' struggles with mobile quarterbacks, Florida will look to get Lagway back on the field. The freshman was crucial in designed rushing attempts against Kentucky, providing an element of mobility that has given LSU struggles.
KD Daniels and Johnson are also expected to be available against the Tigers. LSU ranks near dead last defensively in terms of giving up rush explosives, an area the Gators can exploit.
The health at the cornerback position is critical for Florida, taking on LSU wideouts Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels. With Marshall and Moore, the Gators can continue to execute quarters coverage that requires corners to man up receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project the game as a pick'em with Florida at full health.
Names to watch on the Friday availability report include George on the offensive line, but Lagway's progress is critical. Defensively, Marshall and Moore would provide the stability Florida had in a covering effort against Georgia.
Florida is the play against an LSU team that struggles with mobile quarterbacks if Lagway is cleared.
In the case that Lagway is cleared and the defensive injuries still exist, the over comes into play, as both teams will have minimal resistance in executing their offenses.
Pick: Florida +4.5 or better (If Lagway Plays)
LSU vs. Florida TV, Streaming, How to Watch, Location, Channel
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainsville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
LSU takes on Florida at The Swamp on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Florida vs. LSU Betting Trends
- 93% of bets and 98% of the money are on LSU to cover the spread
- 86% of bets and 82% of the money on the moneyline are on LSU to win outright
- 44% of bets and 91% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Florida vs. LSU Weather
