Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 7 and our LSU vs Ole Miss predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
LSU vs Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Why LSU Tigers Can Cover the Spread
Let’s start with the obvious.
There is not a better home-field advantage in college football than LSU at night.
Ole Miss has not won in Baton Rouge since 2008. This place will be rocking with a top-10 team coming to town, making life very difficult for the Rebels.
This game features two elite quarterbacks, and I think Garrett Nussmeier is equally talented as Jaxson Dart. Nussmeier averages 330.4 passing yards per game and leads the SEC with 15 touchdown passes to just four interceptions.
I won’t sit here and nitpick these to quarterbacks because they are probably a wash. But I like getting the underdog with a quarterback that I believe is just as good.
LSU continues to churn out star receivers, with Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson next in line. They are both averaging over 70 yards per game and over 13.7 yards per reception.
Mason Taylor is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the country, giving Nussmeier a staple of weapons to work with that will challenge this Ole Miss secondary that has yet to be tested against a good passing attack.
The Tigers have been trying to find something in the run game all year and may have found an answer last week with freshman Caden Durham. He went off for 128 yards and a touchdown against South Alabama, adding three catches for 89 yards and a touchdown receiving out of the backfield. He had big plays of 86 and 71 yards from scrimmage.
Whether they are passing or rushing, this offense gets to operate behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. A pair of All-SEC tackles bookend this line in Will Campbell and Emery Jones.
Nussmeier has been sacked just once all season and has only been pressured on 17.8% of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate of any qualified FBS quarterback.
The strength of this Ole Miss defense is its defensive line.
The Rebels lead the country in sacks and tackles for loss, which is how they win games. However, LSU is one of the few teams that has the horses up front to neutralize this Rebels front seven and limit their biggest strength.
I trust the offensive line will keep Nussmeier on his feet. He is among the nation's best quarterbacks when he is kept clean.
He will be able to find his receivers and put pressure on a secondary that has not been forced into coverage for very long all season or played a team with anywhere close to the weapons the Tigers have.
That will prove to be the difference on Saturday. LSU wins this game with its offensive line.
Why Ole Miss Rebels Can Cover the Spread
After years of underperforming on defense, Lane Kiffin has finally recruited a defense in Oxford.
Texas A&M transfer Walter Nolen has been devastating in the middle of the defensive line. Florida transfer Princely Umanmielen has 20 pressures and five sacks in four games coming off the edge. Arkansas transfer Chris Paul Jr. ranks third among qualified FBS linebackers in PFF’s Defensive grades, leading all FBS linebackers with 18 pressures while adding up 32 tackles.
Some Ole Miss stats are inflated from blowouts of Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern.
Still, the Rebels passed the eye test last week, holding the Gamecocks to three points, -0.28 EPA per Play (8th percentile) and 4.25 yards per play (11th percentile). They sacked LaNorris Sellers six times, with Nolen recording a couple.
This is the most significant data point we have for this matchup. The same Gamecock offense that looked lifeless against Ole Miss shredded LSU for 33 points in a near-upset win.
The Tigers needed some late penalty luck to pull out the comeback. South Carolina amassed 430 yards at over seven yards per play with a whopping .26 EPA per Rush (86th percentile). Both Sellers and Raheim “Rocket” Sanders passed the century mark on the ground.
I have some concerns regarding the Ole Miss offense, which didn’t look very Kiffin-esque across the past two weeks.
But Jaxson Dart managed over 10 yards per dropback last week against South Carolina’s elite secondary that ranks seventh nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed — imagine what he’ll do to an LSU secondary that ranks sub-100th in EPA per Dropback allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed, Early Downs EPA per Play allowed and PFF’s Coverage grades.
Garrett Nussmeier and the Tiger aerial attack is electric. Still, the Rebels are the more well-rounded two-way team, and they should earn a few stops while walking up and down the field against Brian Kelly’s hapless defense.
Why Tigers Are Better Bet
Ianniello: I think the Ole Miss defensive line is excellent, but that won't matter in this matchup.
Umanmielen has been tremendous but missed last week with an injury and is questionable for Saturday. The Rebels would've already had a tough time getting past the LSU front, but it will be even more challenging without their top pass rusher.
While I do not question the legitimacy of the front seven, I have some questions about the Ole Miss secondary. The defense passed the eye test against South Carolina, a team that cannot throw the ball. Who is the best passing attack the Rebels have faced this season? Wake Forest? Nussmeier and this LSU passing game are a big step up from Hank Bachmeier.
As Tanner mentioned, this Ole Miss offense has not been as dominant since conference play began. They have posted their two worst offensive performances in the past two games, and something about Dart has just looked off.
Now, his top receiver, Tre Harris, is questionable for this game with an injury. It can not be overstated what a massive loss that would be.
Harris has 52 catches on the season, with the next closest player hauling in just 18 passes. Harris is the key to this offense and the first place Dart looks on key third downs and other big plays. The offense will be completely different without him.
Speaking of his recent struggles, what is Dart’s most impressive road win in his career? Winning at Texas A&M two years ago when he threw for 140 yards?
Ole Miss is a team built to blow the doors off bad competition, but the Rebels rarely play up in competition.
Why Rebels Are Better Bet
McGrath: Let’s talk about LSU’s offensive line.
The Tigers have been excellent in pass protection, no doubt.
But they’ve been curiously absent in the run game, ranking outside the top 50 nationally in Stuff Rate allowed, Power Success Rate and Line Yards. They also rank 68th in PFF’s Run Blocking grades.
As a result, LSU ranks 118th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 76th in EPA per Rush.
While Durham pieced together an uber-impactful outing last week, I won’t make any sure-fire conclusions following a game against South Alabama, and he likely wasn’t very efficient outside of those two huge plays.
Durham will have to put on a show against Ole Miss’ front seven, which — as you aptly observed — is among the nation’s best. The Rebels rank in the top 10 in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards and will abuse LSU’s offensive line on any designed runs – best of luck to the freshman!
So, although Nussmeier might be kept clean, the LSU offense may become one-dimensional, and Kiffin can start to drop guys back in coverage.
Paul has been a menace in coverage at the second level, and Safety Trey Washington is putting together his best season in the defensive backfield.
I doubt Nussmeier and the Tigers can be productive in that type of game script – not when all his “elite” weapons are double-covered. So, while you think LSU wins with its offensive line, I think that unit costs the Tigers the game.
Meanwhile, you never addressed the hapless Tiger defense, which will lay down and allow the Rebels to waltz over them for 60 minutes in a convincing victory.
LSU Football Spread: Why Tigers Will Cover
Ianniello: LSU doesn’t need to run the ball well to win games. The Tigers haven’t been able to run the ball in five years.
The Tigers are a pass-first team, winning games through the air. But Durham is a true freshman who has shown a lot of promise in recent weeks. Tanner mentioned how good the South Carolina defense is. Well, Durham had 98 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries against the Gamecocks.
I expect them to continue to work in Durham more and more, and if he continues to improve, that will be a bonus to a lethal passing attack.
I will gladly talk about this LSU defense. They have taken a big step forward this year under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker. Are the Tigers going to be compared to the ’85 Bears? No.
But for a defense that ranked outside the top 100 in nearly every metric last season, the Tigers have taken a massive step forward, especially against the run. LSU ranks 44th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 34th in Defensive Line Yards.
They have talent up front and rank in the top 25 at creating Havoc.
They rank 16th in pressure grade and have a pair of rock-solid edge rushers in Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones, each with five sacks and consistently getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Ole Miss leads the SEC in sacks, but LSU ranks third.
Unlike LSU, this Rebels offensive line ranks 81st in PFF's Pass Blocking grades. Dart was sacked four times in the loss to Kentucky, an area that could bite him again in this one.
LSU doesn’t need to be elite defensively; it just has to slow the Rebels' run game down, which has not looked great the last two weeks, and get pressure on Dart.
When you break it down, both teams have good passing attacks they will need to rely on to win this ball game. They have strong defensive lines that put pressure on the opposing quarterback, and they have questions in the secondary. These teams are very similar and must execute the same game plan to win.
Which is why 3.5 is too many points.
Ole Miss Football Spread: Why Rebels Will Cover
McGrath: Why question the secondary?
Sure, the advanced metrics are a little fuzzy — although it’s worth mentioning the Rebels rank in the top 20 nationally in every advanced pass defense metric — but they still rank 23rd nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades.
Top cornerback Trey Amos already has six PBUs and two interceptions.
There’s still a good chance that Harris will suit up on Saturday. But I feel fine about the team’s other weapons if he doesn't. Jordan Watkins caught 50 balls last year and is averaging 2.2 yards per route run this year.
Tight end Caden Prieskorn managed almost 500 yards last season at 14 YPR. South Carolina transfer wideout Antwane Wells Jr. is averaging almost 2.5 YRR.
Henry Parrish Jr. is a solid dual-threat out of the backfield, and he’s added 570 yards rushing at 6.3 YPC with nine scores behind an offensive line that ranks top 15 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed.
The Rebels are not short on weapons just because one is shining bright. They have several ways to move the ball, and Coach Kiffin is a known offensive guru who will scheme up a script to beat this very beatable LSU defense.
Finally, Dart’s road record isn’t overly impressive. But he cooked your Nittany Lions in last year’s Peach Bowl (380 yards, 3 TDs, 62.5% completion), tossed for 200 yards in a win at Auburn last season, and tossed for 240 in a 14-point in Tuscaloosa. All three of those secondaries are lightyears ahead of the Tigers’ squad.
Also, you’re right. South Carolina can’t throw the ball. The Gamecocks are totally one-dimensional. They dropped 30 points on 430 yards of offense against LSU.
The Tigers played UCLA and South Alabama in the following two weeks. The Rebels are in a different stratosphere and will be a stiff step up in competition for Nussmeier and Co.
Closing Arguments for LSU vs Ole Miss Spread
Ianniello: Bet LSU +3.5
I laid out all my reasons above why I think LSU is very capable of covering this number from an on-field matchup perspective.
But this is also a tremendous spot for the Tigers.
The Tigers are coming off a bye week, heading into a night game at home with an extra week to prepare for this Ole Miss team. Meanwhile, the Rebels have played seven weeks in a row, including their last two on the road against physical SEC teams, where they had their two worst performances.
If you are into betting trends, I have some fun ones to close this out.
- Brian Kelly ATS as an Underdog: 35-18 (66%)
- Brian Kelly ATS as an Underdog of 3 or More: 27-13-1 (65.9%)
- Brian Kelly After a Bye Week: 15-8-1 (62.5%)
Since 2000, LSU has played 123 night games at Tiger Stadium. They are 108-15 straight up. They have not lost a night game in Death Valley since November 2021.
LSU is 12-0 in night games under Brian Kelly and 16-1 at home under Brian Kelly at any time of day.
Geaux Tigers.
McGrath: Bet Ole Miss -3.5
Ole Miss is the much better all-around football team.
The Rebels boast an elite defensive front. Their dynamic offense will easily move the ball on LSU’s lifeless defense. They rank in the top 15 nationally in SP+’s Special Teams rankings, while the Tigers rank outside the top 60.
LSU can’t run the ball and can’t play defense. The Tigers are overly reliant on Nussmeier. I’m unwilling to put my money behind that, even if the game is in Death Valley.
Dart legacy game on Saturday. Hotty Toddy!
