The USC Trojans and LSU Tigers — two Power Four programs with national titles since the turn of the century — will face off in an offensive-powered showdown from Las Vegas on Sunday. The 2024 Vegas Kickoff Classic will be live from Allegiant Stadium with coverage starting at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
LSU is a consensus 4-point favorite (-4) over USC hours ahead of kick. The total is all the way up to 66.5 at most books, and the Trojans are +155 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. All of that will come into play in my USC vs. LSU pick and my college football predictions for Sunday.
USC vs. LSU Predictions
USC +4 or Better
My LSU-USC best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs. LSU Odds
| USC Trojans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| LSU Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | -188 |
Both teams are desperate to regain a defensive identity. USC head coach Lincoln Riley has long had struggles defending the ball in his time at Oklahoma and Southern California.
The offenses have stolen the show through his tenure, but now Riley will begin a season without Caleb Williams for the first time since the pandemic season of 2020.
On the other side, LSU head coach Brian Kelly begins his third season after falling right outside LSU's goal of making the College Football Playoff.
The Tigers brought in the best portal haul just two seasons ago, taking in eventual Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
Fast forward to Las Vegas on Sunday night, and there will be plenty of intrigue as both teams move on from their Heisman quarterbacks.
So, where does the betting value lie on Sunday. Read on for my full USC vs. LSU predictions.
USC Football vs. LSU Football Preview
LSU had to make a change on defense after one of the worst seasons in program history.
While the Tigers ranked top-10 nationally in a number of offensive categories, the defense ranked bottom-10 in Finishing Drives and allowing explosives on passing downs.
There was no resistance against the rush, as six of the eight SEC teams on the schedule scored 30 or more points in conference play.
To improve on those stats, Kelly landed Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to join the effort.
Baker implemented a 3-3-5 scheme with a split of Cover 1 and Cover 3 while at Missouri. The Tigers were one of the most Havoc-minded defenses in the country, a factor that should translate to LSU.
Missouri improved significantly against the rush, holding top-25 metrics in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate against a stiff SEC schedule of rushers.
The biggest issues came in giving up explosives and when opponents reached scoring position. Missouri fell to 120th in standard downs explosives allowed, while opponents crossing the 40-yard line averaged 4.2 points per attempt.
The LSU offense will have a different look after two years with Jayden Daniels under center.
Garrett Nussmeier patiently waited for his turn in Baton Rouge, bringing a cannon for an arm with a career average depth of target at 11.8 yards.
Since 2021, Nussmeier has more than doubled his big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate in 219 attempts.
Kyren Lacy will move into the top receiver role after an even distribution of snaps in the slot and wideout last season.
However, LSU's rushing attack has plenty of question marks with Josh Williams expected to get the most carries. Williams averaged a poor 2.4 yards after contact a season ago in 55 attempts.
The best news for LSU heading into 2024 is the offensive line, led by a pair of NFL tackles in Emery Jones Jr. and Will Campbell. Both ranked top-40 among individual tackles in overall blocking grades last season, with Campbell's run-blocking grade the best of any returning player in college football.
After serving many years under Riley in Norman and Los Angeles, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was let go to make way for crosstown rival D'Anton Lynn from UCLA.
The Trojans had allowed 28 points to every team on the Pac-12 schedule. However, Lynn brings home after revamping the Bruins into an efficient and Havoc-generating squad.
Lynn used to serve on the Baltimore Ravens' staff — one of many assistants who departed for the college ranks. The transformation of the Michigan defense under Jesse Minter and Mike MacDonald played out at UCLA, as Lynn brought a multi-front nickel package defense using quarters and Cover 1 to prevent explosives.
A 22% blitz rate created the seventh-best Havoc number in the nation, topped by the best overall pass rush in college football. The Bruins stifled opposing rush attacks, moving from outside the top 100 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Stuff Rate to 31st and fifth, respectively.
The pedigree is there to produce a similar turnaround at USC.
Anthony Lucas gets the start at edge as a blue-chip recruit who couldn't find consistent playing time at Texas A&M. Bear Alexander has the talent to dominate from the interior but lists as an "OR" on the depth chart with the rise of Gavin Meyer.
The Trojans also added Mason Cobb, who was a key to Oklahoma State's defensive success at middle linebacker two seasons ago, while safety Kamari Ramsey transfers in with Lynn from UCLA.
Any improvement to a poor USC defense will benefit an offense that's expected to be a powder keg of explosives.
Miller Moss won the job at quarterback, drawing rave reviews from the coaching staff. Miller dominated the Holiday Bowl in his first start, ringing up a stout Louisville defense for six touchdowns and 372 passing yards.
QB1⃣
Now that it's official, let's take a look at Miller Moss' historic Holiday Bowl in his first career start 👇 #B1GFootballpic.twitter.com/roHGkFV2w5
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) August 21, 2024
While the simple explanation for the hot start of Moss' career was that the Cardinals didn't have tape, the quarterback still won the job in fall camp over UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava because of his ability to protect the ball.
The list of weapons on the offense is plentiful, starting at slot with Zachariah Branch. Additionally, Makai Lemon was limited in experience a season ago but averaged more than two yards per route run after being recruited as a top-10 receiver.
In the backfield, Jo'Quavious Marks did everything during his time at Mississippi State, giving USC an element who can run between the tackles and catch balls in the flat.
USC vs LSU Pick, Best Bet: USC to Cover the Spread
College football fans and bettors will see Allegiant Stadium's fast track and the weak defenses from previous years and immediately gravitate toward the over.
While the number continues to creep up, 65 is the largest key number in this range for totals and will create a battle in wagers leading up to kickoff.
The total in this game will be decided by which defensive coordinator has implemented their flavor of defense through fall camp.
The bad news for LSU is Baker's consistent issues in stopping the pass at Missouri. The Tigers were mid-FBS in Defensive Success Rate against the pass, falling to 72nd in Pass EPA Allowed.
Opposing quarterbacks had little resistance hitting targets in stride, considering the Tigers' rank of 68th in on-target ball allowed.
LSU is expected to start a number of inexperienced players in the secondary due to talent level or injury.
Freshman PJ Woodland is sure to get USC's attention at cornerback, while fellow corner Zy Alexander posted below-replacement-level coverage numbers for LSU last season after transferring from Southeastern Louisiana.
Pick: USC +4 or Better
How to Watch USC vs LSU Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
USC vs LSU Betting Trends
- LSU has taken 56% of the bets but only 52% of the money on the spread.
- The over has landed 59% of the bets and 80% of the money total, up from only 33% of the tickets and 59% of the money as of Saturday night.
USC vs LSU Weather
