Who's ready for some midweek MACtion? I know I can't wait. We're just one day away from the return of every college football bettor's favorite weekday pastime.
Just like I do every year to kick off this joyous annual occasion, I follow up on my preseason MAC Manifesto with an updated lay of the land before the stretch run to help bettors get prepared for all of the Tuesday and Wednesday night action throughout the month of November.
Let's dive into some MACtion!
College Football Midseason MACtion Report
While the MAC isn't known for its super high quality of football, be prepared for an even bigger circus this season. This may be the worst version of the league we've seen in a very long time.
As it currently stands, I have nine of the 12 teams sitting outside the top 100 in my most recent power ratings. And one of those teams inside the top 100, Miami (OH), just lost starting quarterback Brett Gabbert to a devastating season-long injury.
Poor quarterback play has been the theme of the MAC so far this season with nine of the 12 teams now down to a backup or quarterback rotation. It's a mess, to say the least, but that's part of the allure.
Ike Udengwu got the start for EMU. Add them to the list of MAC teams down to backups or rotating QBs
Kent State
Eastern Michigan
Akron
Miami Ohio
Buffalo
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Ball State
Western MichiganOnly Ohio, Toledo and NIU still standing
Incredible
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) October 28, 2023
Let's dive into midseason updates for each team, starting with the West Division.
For reference, I will indicate my current power rating next to each team and offer a stock recommendation with two buys, four sells and six holds, as a lot of these teams are matchup-dependent.
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MAC West
Preseason favorite Toledo currently sits one game clear of Northern Illinois in the standings. However, that's essentially a two-game cushion since the Rockets already defeated Northern Illinois in a 35-33 barnburner earlier this season.
With a very easy remaining schedule (vs. Buffalo, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Bowling Green, at Central Michigan), it's hard to envision the defending champions not making a return trip to Ford Field.
Just like most seasons, Toledo has the most talented team in the MAC.
The Rockets also have the most balanced bunch in the league with no real major flaws and are currently the only team I have power-rated as better than average nationally in a division without a single other team inside the top 100.
If not for a miraculous late fourth-down conversion by Illinois, they'd also be 8-0 on the season.
Rockets Offense
Toledo features a run-first offense that leans on the legs of quarterback Dequan Finn and lead back Peny Boone, with the latter averaging a ridiculous 7.0 yards per carry after transferring in from Maryland two seasons ago.
Finn has also fared OK this season throwing the ball by spreading it around to a decent wide receiving corps that doesn't really have a standout alpha — although, wide receiver Jerjuan Newton has found the end zone nine times through eight games.
While Finn has improved as a passer with more experience, he still does put the ball in harm's way a little too often for my liking. He does have a very impressive 14:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but advanced metrics suggest a bit of good fortune with a more pedestrian 12:10 big-time throws to turnover-worthy play ratio.
While other teams across the league have dealt with a plethora of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Toledo has been extremely fortunate in that department. It hasn't had a single starter miss a game this season, which includes all five starters along a very experienced offensive line.
Tackle Nick Rosi is the star of the show up front, anchoring a very strong left side with guard Vinny Sciury. The right side isn't as strong with former Temple/Rutgers transfer David Nwaogwugwu struggling to find consistency at times in his first season as a starter, while the weakest link is probably at center with Devan Rogers.
As long as Finn and this offense can remain healthy, it's hard to see anybody else in this division slowing it down. However, that could be a different story in the MAC Championship, which we can revisit when that time comes.
Rockets Defense
Just like the offense, Toledo has enjoyed extreme health on the defensive side of the ball, especially now that safety Maxen Hook has returned from injury.
The secondary is elite with a deep group of safeties, led by the aforementioned Hook, Zachary Ford and super-versatile Nate Bauer.
However, the star of the show is shutdown cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who led the country in passes defensed last year. He's a legit pro prospect and arguably should be the first Group of Five player taken in next year's NFL Draft. He can completely shut down one side of the field, providing defensive coordinator Vince Kehres with an abundance of flexibility.
If there's a potential weakness on this Toledo defense it's against the run.
While the Rockets won't allow many explosives with a sure-tackling secondary, the front seven isn't as strong after losing three pro prospects in the offseason in defensive lineman Desjuan Johnson (drafted by the Rams), outside linebacker Jamal Hines and inside linebacker Dyontae Johnson (recently on the Giants roster).
The Rockets still have a pair of Big Ten transfers up the middle in former Penn State nose tackle Judge Culpepper and Ohio State inside linebacker Dallas Gant, but there just isn't as much talent as last year, which is why they rank slightly below the national average in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
Ultimately, Toledo has the best defense in the division by a wide margin, but I actually have it basically even with Ohio and Miami (OH).
Opponents can efficiently move the ball a bit on the ground and hit a few explosives through the air, but you're just not going to consistently move the ball with an efficient passing attack against the top Group of Five secondary in the country for my money.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
A problem in the past, the Toledo special teams have actually played at an above-average level this season, adding to that extreme balance I mentioned earlier.
However, I still don't fully trust head coach Jason Candle, and this team has certainly benefited from extremely good fortune in a number of areas, including health.
The Rockets are probably at the top of their market value, and Candle is always good to blow a game or two as a big favorite.
Stock Recommendation:Sell
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After an overtime win to open up the season at Boston College, the Huskies bottomed out with a home loss to Tulsa in a game where Golden Hurricane quarterback Cardell Williams finished with only 102 yards on 8-of-20 passing with two interceptions.
Since that point, the Huskies have played much better in league play, which has coincided with the improved health of veteran quarterback Rocky Lombardi, who left that Tulsa game with an injury.
NIU has won three straight in league play with the only loss coming by two points at Toledo.
Huskies Offense
Northern Illinois features a rush-first offense that feeds running back Antario Brown, who has averaged just under six yards per carry on the season. Brown certainly benefits from running behind a very experienced offensive line, led by NFL prospect Nolan Potter at right tackle.
Left tackle remains a work in progress, but this is a very solid MAC offensive front even if it really does miss absent guard Logan Zschernitz, who was supposed to be its best interior lineman with sneaky pro potential.
While NIU has one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country in Lombardi, the passing game still leaves a lot to be desired, especially after losing Kacper Rutkiewicz to a season-ending injury.
It's basically now the Trayvon Rudolph show on the outside.
Huskies Defense
The biggest surprise for Northern Illinois this season has been the production of its defense, specifically against the pass after losing top cornerback Eric Rogers to Rutgers in the offseason.
The secondary has improved dramatically year over year with wide cornerback Javaughn Byrd and slot Jashon Prophete making major leaps in their development, while an experienced safety group has provided stability on the back end, led by tackling machine CJ Brown.
Through eight weeks, the Huskies ranked sixth nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate.
While the numbers look dramatically improved, I'm still not fully sold on this defensive backfield that has benefited from an extremely easy schedule of opposing passing offenses — although one could certainly point to holding Ohio to only 13 points as a significant data point.
The defensive line is certainly a known commodity when it comes to getting to the quarterback with the veteran trio of James Ester, Raishein Thomas, and Devonte O'Malley.
However, the run defense is a bit vulnerable due to a smaller front that ranks in the bottom three nationally in Stuff Rate and subpar linebacker play, which is understandable after losing program mainstay Kyle Pugh to graduation after eight seasons and Daveren Rayner to Kentucky.
As a result, the Huskies rank outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
Regardless, this is an improved defense by any measure, which now fits more with the identity of the Huskies, who want to win ugly in grinding, low-scoring affairs.
The defense is certainly doing its part, ranking in the top three nationally in explosiveness allowed.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
The Huskies really lack depth across the roster, which is one of the reasons why they have such poor special teams.
However, if they continue to stay healthy, their starting 22 is good enough to continue to make noise in the MAC even if that heartbreaking loss to Toledo really puts them behind the eight ball in terms of the division race.
This is a team that should go bowling and could easily finish 8-4 with a very easy remaining schedule that includes Central Michigan, Ball State, Western Michigan and Kent State. It doesn't get much easier than that for a final four-game stretch.
Stock Recommendation:Hold
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The Chips started off 2-2 in the nonconference due to a surprise upset win at South Alabama to go along with a too-close-for-comfort 45-42 victory over FCS New Hampshire and two expected defeats on the road against Michigan State and Notre Dame.
They've also started 2-2 in league play with a pair of home wins over Eastern Michigan and Akron by only one possession each, while the highway has not been kind with two road losses at the hands of Ball State and Buffalo.
Although, the 37-13 final score in the latter is a bit misleading, as the Chips actually outgained the Bulls, 360-255, but were done in by a -4 turnover margin, including two pick-sixes and countless other short fields.
Chippewas Offense
CMU had a disastrous offense in 2022 after losing a pair of offensive tackles to the NFL. That's not just something a program of this caliber is going to recover from in one season.
Coming into this season, there were still questions up front for an offense that also needed to replace quarterback Daniel Richardson (transferred to FAU) and running back Lew Nichols III (NFL).
Additionally, the wide receiver and tight end room had to deal with mass attrition.
After super athletic Bert Emanuel flashed his elite running ability late last season, he got the first crack under center to start the season. However, he didn't even make it through the month of September due to a lack of pocket awareness and accuracy.
That set the stage for Jase Bauer to take over. He has had his own struggles (6:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio) but does at least have some mobility and is a bit more consistent in the short passing game.
Even after losing Nichols, the running back room is the strength of the offense with Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey — although Bailey missed the last game with an injury, which really hurts the depth in the backfield.
Jesse Prewitt III has had his moments at wide receiver, but there just aren't a lot of reliable weapons on the outside.
Getting back to the tackle situation, it hasn't improved in 2023, which certainly hasn't helped whoever has been under center.
The interior of the offensive line has actually held its own, led by star guard Deiyantei Powell-Woods, who has a shot to play at the next level.
However, the bookends remain a complete disaster. Brayden Swartout has struggled at right tackle, while left tackle Davis Heinzen has arguably been the worst pass-blocking offensive lineman in college football.
Things got so bad for Heinzen last game that head coach Jim McElwain had to kick out Powell-Woods from guard to tackle. It's a mess.
Chippewas Defense
CMU had to replace its leading pass rusher in Thomas Incoom, who is now with the Denver Broncos.
While the edge rush has taken a step back, the interior of the defensive line is the strength of this unit, led by Jacques Bristol, who is a menace up front. He and Jason Williams form a formidable duo inside that will only improve with Robi Stuart just returning from injury.
However, the run defense has been very shaky and now must likely make do without top linebacker Kyle Moretti. The Chippewas' leading tackler was seen on crutches last game, which isn't a great sign moving forward.
While I don't have a ton of optimism for the rush defense or edge pressure moving forward, I actually think this pass defense has a ton of potential and is moving in the right direction.
Cornerback Donte Kent and safety Trey Jones were the two known commodities on the back end, but it's been South Dakota transfer CB Da'Raun McKinney who has really provided a boost to the defensive backfield. He's been outstanding since making his debut three games ago.
Assuming Kent doesn't have a long-term injury after leaving last game, this is a formidable group that should cause problems for opposing passing attacks.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
When will Central Michigan start to get some breaks?
After finishing with an NCAA-worst -18 turnover margin last season, the Chips sit at -6 this year. Well, part of that has to do with a poor passing offense that lacks playmakers on the outside and can't protect the quarterback at either tackle position.
It's not just all bad luck.
The biggest problem for CMU is its remaining league schedule. It's been a breeze so far against four teams I have ranked outside the top 100.
That's about to change with a remaining slate that includes a hot Northern Illinois team, on the road to face a Western Michigan squad potentially trending up, then two of the best teams in the league in Ohio and Toledo to close out the regular season.
Stock Recommendation:Hold
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After a brutal nonconference schedule that kicked off with back-to-back games against Kentucky and Georgia, Ball State finally picked up its first FBS win of the season in its most recent home game with Central Michigan to keep its slim postseason hopes alive with four winnable games left on the schedule.
Cardinals Offense
After John Paddock transferred to Illinois in the offseason, Ball State knew it would have a new quarterback under center to try to jump-start one of the least efficient passing offenses in the country in 2022.
That task was made even more difficult with a brand new receiving corps that lost star tight end Brady Hunt and projected No. 1 receiver Ty Robinson to season-ending injuries.
The results were dire, as the Cardinals couldn't get anything going through the air with either transfer Layne Hatcher or Kadin Semonza. As a result, they tried out their third starting quarterback of the season in redshirt sophomore Kiael Kelly.
The dual-threat Kelly has started the past two games, operating a basic read-option scheme. He remains a very limited passer — completing only 51% of his passes for a meager 5.0 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and one interception.
However, he does bring some juice to the running game and averages 5.3 yards on 65 attempts, to complement the uber-talented Marquez Cooper.
The problem is opponents can just load the box without any respect for the downfield passing attack, making it very difficult for Ball State to simply run its way down the field with any consistency.
In regards to the offensive line, it's actually played OK, especially with the entire starting five back together last game after center Ethan Crowe — its best offensive lineman — and left guard Jon Mucciolo returned from injury after missing a few games.
Without those two, the interior fell apart rapidly, as Ball State severely lacks depth at multiple positions, including offensive line.
However, with those two now back in the mix around a very sturdy and experienced tackle duo of Damon Kaylor and Corey Stewart, this unit can create some push up front.
Cardinals Defense
Coming into the season, Ball State had major question marks in the secondary after losing three outstanding defensive backs in cornerback Nic Jones, cornerback AJ Uzodinma and safety Jaquan Amos. All three were signed by NFL teams in the offseason at one point, signaling the rich talent lost on the back end.
Safety and part-time slot Jordan Riley did at least return after earning All-MAC honors, but he's had a down season to date for a safety group that has played particularly poorly.
Cornerback Tyler "Red" Potts, who returned in Week 8 after missing two games with an injury, has been the lone bright spot on the outside as a legit shutdown cornerback as one of only 14 CBs to allow a reception percentage below 40% among close to 300 CBs with at least 150 coverage snaps.
Old Dominion transfer Damion Charity also recently missed two games, but he's basically played at a MAC replacement-level cornerback.
The run defense is the strength on this side of the ball thanks to a very solid group of linebackers.
The Cardinals did lose preseason All-MAC linebacker Clayton Coll to a likely season-ending injury in their opener, but Cole Pearce, Keionte Newson and Joey Stemler remain stout against the run.
However, they do struggle in coverage, adding to the issues Ball State has in that department.
Up front, the defensive line also has some talent with Sidney Houston Jr. coming off the edge and veteran Jack Sape on the interior. Rhode Island transfer James Makszin has been a pleasant surprise for a fairly deep interior of linemen, especially with Kyron Mims now back and fully healthy.
For the most part, they get the job done against the run despite being a bit undersized overall.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
I'm buying Ball State after a very slow start to the year.
After two physical games against Georgia and Kentucky, it's understandable they got banged up, which really hurt the Cardinals due to their lack of depth.
Playing without multiple starters along the offensive line and even both starting cornerbacks certainly made things difficult for a Mike Neu squad that already had lost its top tight end, wide receiver and linebacker for the season.
I like the recent transition to Kelly at quarterback by leaning into the run game, as there just isn't much at wide receiver, especially without Hunt at tight end.
I also think the new secondary will continue to improve. While that won't be a strong suit, the Cardinals don't face a lethal passing attack the rest of the way with Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Kent State and Miami (OH) without Brett Gabbert remaining on their schedule.
Stock Recommendation:Buy
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Eagles Offense
Coming into the season, I was super low on the Eagles since I always thought Taylor Powell was significantly better than Austin Smith.
After splitting time throughout 2022, it was exclusively Smith's job after Powell graduated — although Ike Udengwu did get the start last week but Smith eventually took back over.
It has not gone well, as the Eagles have a bottom-five FBS offense per most metrics.
EMU does have a talented running back in Samson Evans, but there's only so much he can do with an abysmal passing offense that doesn't get any respect from opposing defenses.
Brian Dooley is excellent at right tackle, but keep in mind the Eagles lost their two best offensive linemen from last season in guard Sidy Sow, who's now starting for the New England Patriots, and left tackle Marcellus Johnson, who transferred to Missouri.
Outside of Dooley, the pass blocking is abysmal, including Evans in the backfield. The Eagles moved Mickey Rewolinski to left tackle after playing right guard last year, but he got hurt after six games after an up-and-down start to 2023.
West Virginia transfer Chris Mayo has stepped in, but he has really struggled in pass protection, which hasn't helped matters. They've also had a recent change at center with former Colorado transfer Carson Lee taking over for an injured Dimitri Douglas, who also struggled when healthy.
It's just a messy offensive line that's also playing musical chairs.
There's not much like to about this offense other than hope Evans can break a run, but they grade out as one of the least explosive rushing offenses in the country. There are only so many times a bad quarterback can throw the ball to Tanner Knue, assuming he has enough time to set in the pocket.
The wide receiver room sorely misses Dylan Drummond (now with the Lions), Hassan Beydoun (graduated) and Darius Lassiter (transferred to BYU), who gave that room much more juice along with Knue last season.
Consequently, the Eagles rank in the bottom five nationally in offensive explosiveness and Passing Downs Success Rate.
Eagles Defense
The first order of business for the EMU defense in 2023 was to find a way to replace defensive end Jose Ramirez — one of the best players in program history who went in the sixth round of the NFL Draft.
Not only could Ramirez dominate off the edge, but he'd also command so much attention (sometimes triple teams) from opposing offenses, which would open up lanes for others to make plays.
Simply put, there was just no way EMU was going to replace a player of that caliber. While Justin Jefferson has actually played quite well in his place, it's still a significant drop-off.
As a whole, the defensive line is extremely undersized, which has led to expected struggles against the run. Through eight weeks, the Eagles ranked outside the top 100 in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush Allowed.
Even with a pair of reliable linebackers in Joe Sparacio and Chase Kline, there's no quick fix for Chris Creighton when it comes to a unit that ranks in the bottom three nationally in Line Yards.
However, the EMU defense has actually graded out respectfully overall due to one of the most surprising units in the country: the Eagles' secondary, which has actually played extremely well. Believe it or not, through eight weeks, the Eastern Michigan defense ranked fifth overall in Passing Success Rate.
Quentavius Scandrett is extremely underrated at safety, and cornerback Kempton Shine has taken the next step in his fifth year as a starter on the outside.
The other defensive backs have also exceeded expectations — especially true freshman Daiquan White, who has been a revelation for the EMU defense. Among 290 cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps through Week 8, White ranked sixth in percentage of targets caught at a dominant 35.0%.
He's also the only one ranked in the top 10 without a penalty despite facing more targets (40) than any of the other nine.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
There's not much hope for the EMU offense in 2023, but the pass defense does look to be legit. That should keep the team in games as long as it isn't getting completely gashed on the ground.
EMU is at least very well-coached, which means the Eagles generally won't hurt themselves with penalties or turnovers.
They also always have one of the better special teams units in the MAC. This year is no different, as I have them ranked in the top 10 nationally in that department to date, which can make all the difference in a close game.
They don't match up particularly well against Toledo, but they will deserve a look at Buffalo to close out the regular season of a rebuilding year in Ypsilanti.
Stock Recommendation: Hold
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Coming into the season, there was a ton of uncertainty surrounding the Western Michigan football program, which has fallen a long way since the PJ Fleck days.
The Broncos were not only gutted in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball, but they also had a new head coach at the helm in Lance Taylor, who served as Louisville's offensive coordinator last season.
Broncos Offense
Similar to Ball State, Western Michigan recently started its third different quarterback of the season when Old Dominion transfer Hayden Wolff started the past two games.
He looks like the guy going forward after a pair of very impressive performances in a three-point loss on the road against a very good Ohio defense followed by a blowout win over Eastern Michigan on Saturday.
While Taylor is known for his rushing attack, he pretty much abandoned it with Wolff attempting 42 passes in a close loss to Ohio, but he did lean a bit more on the ground game this past weekend with impressive freshman running back Jalen Buckley.
The offensive line across the board has been a pleasant surprise, which has helped the explosiveness in the run game. With Wolff now bringing added stability at quarterback, this rebuilt offense is trending in the right direction.
Broncos Defense
Like the offense, the defense was absolutely gutted in the offseason, especially at linebacker.
Keni-H Lovely is playing well at cornerback, while Marshawn Kneeland can generate pressure off the edge, but there's not much else to write home about on this side of the ball.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
This team is finally showing some life after an almost complete rebuild that didn't get helped out by a brutal nonconference schedule. I'm looking to buy the Broncos the rest of the season — but beware of their horrid special teams.
Stock Recommendation:Buy
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MAC East
Heading into last weekend, there was a three-way tie at the top of the East Division between Ohio, Miami (OH) and Buffalo.
However, unless something crazy happens, which I guess would be pretty normal in the MAC, this division was decided on Saturday when Miami Ohio beat Ohio to effectively take a two-game lead in the standings with three to go.
Yes, the Bulls still remain tied in the loss column with the Redhawks, but they have three wins over the bottom-feeders of the MAC with three of the top teams in the league remaining on their schedule.
It's looking like Toledo will try to defend its conference title against Miami Ohio in Detroit for the conference championship.
The Bobcats came into the season as the favorites to win the MAC after making the title game without star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who suffered a season-ending injury late in the year.
He missed most of Ohio's first two games but has been under center ever since. However, the offense just hasn't found the same level of explosiveness or efficiency we saw last year.
Meanwhile, the defense, which started to trend up in the second half of last season under new defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky, has continued its ascent.
Bobcats Offense
The Ohio offense had lofty expectations coming into 2023 after what it put on display last season. With Rourke set to return from injury along with a promising backfield, four returning starters along the offensive line and former Ohio State transfer Sam Wiglusz back in the mix as the go-to-receiver, the sky was the limit for the Bobs.
However, it just hasn't clicked in 2023.
What has gone wrong? They have been relatively healthy since Rourke returned under center, but losing wide receiver James Bostic to graduation and then Jacoby Jones to a season-ending injury has taken the explosiveness out of the offense.
To wit, through eight weeks, Ohio ranked second-to-last among all FBS teams in offensive explosiveness due to no downfield threat and a rushing attack that ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in EPA.
Jones, who averaged over 17 yards per catch in 2022 and over 18 in 2023, not only provided the big play, but he opened up everything else underneath for Wiglusz and company.
Plus, Rourke has just looked a little off post-injury. After averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with 25 touchdowns to just four interceptions in 2022, his yards per attempt has plummeted to 6.9. He also has thrown one more interception than he did all of last season with 16 fewer touchdowns.
While healthy and experienced, the offensive line seems to really miss the only departed starter in right guard Hagen Meservy. The Bobcats' front excels in pass protection but hasn't been great in terms of run blocking. As a result, it's Rourke who actually leads the team in yards per carry at 4.8.
Running backs Sieh Bangura and O'Shaan Allison have combined for 212 rush attempts for 794 yards. That's only an average of 3.7 yards per carry. For reference, Bangura averaged 4.9 yards per rush on 222 attempts last year. This year, he's down to 4.1, but Allison, who missed last season due to injury, is at a paltry 3.3.
Despite that difference, they are basically splitting carries, which is hurting the overall rush efficiency.
With the offense lacking a consistent rushing attack and deep threat, it's all up to Rourke to make the offense go with a constant short passing attack. That's not easy to do, especially when opposing defenses don't have to respect much else.
Bobcats Defense
I mentioned the improvement of Ohio's defense, which started midway through the 2022 season.
Well, from a pure metrics standpoint, this defense has been the best in the league to date. Through eight weeks, Ohio ranked in the top 25 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success Rate. Opponents have hit an occasional deep shot through the air, but that's about it.
It's an experienced unit led by a pair of very good cornerbacks in Justin Birchette and Torrie Cox Jr. on the outside. The safety group, which added Walter Reynolds from Holy Cross in the offseason, is deep and flies to the ball, while linebacker Bryce Houston leads a very stable linebacker room that got Keye Thompson back healthy.
Meanwhile, Vonnie Watkins is counted on to generate pressure off the edge after the loss of Jack McCrory. Nobody has yet to fill McCrory's shoes, so the edge rush has taken a step back overall.
It's also still a fairly undersized defensive front as a whole despite ranking in the top 25 nationally in Line Yards.
While the Ohio defense has superb advanced metrics, it was a bit overrated heading into this past weekend after facing the following offenses:
- San Diego State
- Long Island
- Florida Atlantic
- Iowa State
- Bowling Green
- Kent State
- Northern Illinois
- Western Michigan
That's about as easy as it gets. Plus, it even faced a Cyclones offense that was dealing with a food poisoning breakout the night before the game.
This defense is solid, but it's not as good as some of their metrics suggest.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
I'm looking to sell Ohio, which seems to be trending in the wrong direction with an overrated defense and an offense stuck in a phone booth with no semblance of explosiveness in either the run or passing game.
Additionally, it's had one of the worst special teams units in the country. After losing stud kicker Nathanial Vakos to Wisconsin via the portal, the field goal kicking has been a mess, while new punter Jared Wheatley has also struggled mightily.
Stock Recommendation:Sell
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Miami Ohio would sit higher in my power ratings if star quarterback Brett Gabbert didn't suffer another unfortunate season-ending injury.
Gabbert, who had a chance of getting selected in the late rounds of the NFL Draft, had a stretch of 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions before getting hurt last season and started off 2023 with a 14:5 ratio.
The RedHawks will sorely miss him running the show.
RedHawks Offense
With Gabbert now done for the season, Aveon Smith will take over at quarterback. He does at least have starting experience since Gabbert also had a season-ending injury in 2022.
Smith is a dual-threat quarterback who can do much more with his legs than Gabbert, but he remains very limited as a passer. Last season, he threw for nearly 1,300 yards with 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions but completed under 50% of his passes.
Losing Gabbert stings even more considering Miami (OH) simply hasn't thrived in the run game.
Now, Rashad Amos and Kenny Tracy have shown flashes out of the backfield in front of a massive offensive line that averages 313 pounds with all five guys weighing in at 300-plus and former left tackle Sam Vaughan moving to guard after returning from his ACL injury.
However, they've had more success in the pass-blocking department as a whole, but maybe that changes with Smith operating a more rush-based attack after leading the team in rushing yards in 2022.
Lastly, it's worth mentioning wide receiver Gage Larvadain, who has helped fill the void left by reliable stud possession receiver Mac Hippenhammer.
Can Smith connect deep with the SELA transfer on some of the deep shots that Gabbert has hit now that Larvadain has returned to full health after missing some time with an injury?
He will have to against defenses that will likely play with much heavier boxes without Gabbert in the lineup, which will make the run game that much more difficult to get going, but the first data point was promising with an upset win over Ohio.
Smith threw the ball only 11 times for 103 yards, while the Redhawks ran it 46 times for 188 yards. That's not the most effective day on the ground, but that's gotta be the formula moving forward, while relying on the defense.
RedHawks Defense
I currently have the Miami (OH) defense ranked No. 1 in the MAC by a slim margin over Ohio and Toledo.
The RedHawks' 4-2-5 defense is legit with two linebackers in the middle playing at a very high level in former safety Matt Salopek and Ty Wise to go along with a couple of solid depth pieces that can get after the quarterback.
The defensive line is rich in depth and experience and has improved a bit in the pass-rushing department, led by Brian Ugwu and Caiden Woullard.
Meanwhile, Kobe Hilton and Austin Ertl have been mainstays of the Miami interior, although both are a bit undersized, which explains a bottom-10 Stuff Rate through eight weeks. Opposing teams can get a push on the RedHawks up front, but the back end is full of reliable tacklers to clean everything up.
The strength of the defense lies in the secondary, which ranked in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Pass through eight weeks. The cornerback group did lose John Saunders to Ole Miss via the portal in the offseason, but Yasyn McKee has really stepped up as the top gun on the outside despite being a bit undersized, while Raion Strader has surprisingly played up to par as a freshman on the other side.
While the cornerbacks have been good but not great, the safeties are the star of the show with versatile upperclassmen Michael Dowell and Jacquez Warren back in the mix. They both do a tremendous job of preventing explosive passing plays while helping in the run game.
Ultimately, it's just a well-schooled and schemed defense with a lot of veterans across the board who don't miss many tackles or assignments. They've also had great fortune when it comes to injuries to date, so the continuity has been there from the jump.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
With the injury to Gabbert, Miami will have to improve its rushing attack while leaning on its veteran, sturdy defense and rare elite special teams unit in the MAC.
Stock Recommendation:Hold
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Don't be fooled by the conference record. Buffalo is dreadful.
Just take a look at its three wins this season, which all came in league play:
- Kent State
- Akron
- Central Michigan
A trio of dregs.
To make matters worse, the Bulls were actually outgained by Central Michigan but benefited from extreme turnover luck, including a pair of pick-sixes.
And against lowly Akron, they luckboxed a win in overtime in a 13-10 slopfest in which both teams barely crawled over 250 total yards even with extra time.
Bulls Offense
As of this moment, the theme of the MAC is quarterback uncertainty.
Well, Buffalo is part of that mess with the Bulls now rotating quarterbacks Cole Snyder and CJ Ogbonna, who is more of a runner.
Among 109 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Snyder — who has taken the overwhelming majority of snaps under center — has the 11th-lowest average depth of target of 7.5 yards.
Despite a dink-and-dunk short passing attack, Snyder still ranks in the bottom 25 in completion percentage among that group.
The offensive line has struggled to get any push up front for a decent running back room, led by Ron Cook, that can still grind away for short gains but has completely lacked any explosiveness. The pass-blocking metrics look OK, but that has more to do with how quickly Snyder gets rid of the ball.
The passing attack really misses its top three receivers from a season ago who all departed in the offseason.
There's just absolutely no juice or rhythm to the passing attack, which has struggled immensely despite one of the easiest schedules in the country.
Bulls Defense
Despite the loss of star linebacker James Patterson, the defense has looked OK at times, although the numbers have certainly received a boost from a laughable league schedule.
Look no further than the game against Louisiana and Liberty, which both absolutely flamed the Bulls defense from start to finish. Even FCS Fordham put up 40 in Buffalo in an upset victory earlier in the season.
The defensive front, led by stud Daymond Williams on the interior, does a good job of not getting pushed around, as evidenced by excellent ranks in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Plus, the Bulls have a very strong linebacker duo in their 4-2-5 scheme. However, tackling machine Shaun Dolac has missed the past four games. He was recently seen in a walking boot, which isn't a good sign moving forward.
Defensive end Max Michel can generate some pressure off the edge, but this isn't a vintage Buffalo pressure unit by any stretch.
In the secondary, Buffalo has a pair of very good safeties, led by pro prospect Marcus Fuqua, who has actually had a down year for his standards. While Charles McCartherens has been a pleasant surprise, the cornerback group is a bit underwhelming in coverage, so the Bulls play a lot of off coverage.
As a result, any competent quarterback can work their way down the field with an efficient passing attack against a Bulls stop unit that appears dead set on preventing explosive plays, which their safeties help clean up.
Overall, Buffalo has a pretty good rush defense, especially if Dolac returns, but the secondary remains very vulnerable even if the Bulls make teams work for it a bit.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
Coming into this season, I was super low on this Buffalo team that didn't bring in a single FBS starter from the portal while seeing a number of key starters depart.
I've never been a fan of Snyder, and this Buffalo team just has significantly less talent than we are used to seeing.
I'll be looking to fade the Bulls from here on out as their league schedule increases substantially in difficulty with Toledo, Ohio, Miami (OH) and Eastern Michigan on deck.
From a special teams standpoint, Alex McNulty will make his extra points, but he's completely unreliable on field goals. Other than that, the unit has been fine but unspectacular.
Stock Recommendation:Sell
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Bowling Green has had an odd path to get back to .500 on the season.
The Falcons have three wins over cupcakes in Akron, Buffalo and Eastern Illinois in which they had a 10-3 turnover advantage. They also have four double-digit losses against clearly superior teams in Michigan, Ohio, and Miami (OH) in which their offense did nothing.
However, their fourth win came as the result of one of the biggest upsets of the college football season when Bowling Green won outright at Georgia Tech in a game in which it completely dominated time of possession by over 25 minutes.
It also helped to finish with a 3-0 turnover margin, which means it has a +10 turnover margin in four wins and a -6 mark in four losses. It's an odd team.
Falcons Offense
Bowling Green's rush-heavy offense completely runs through its backfield.
Terion Stewart, one of the best running backs at the Group of Five level, averages over six yards per carry, while fellow running mate Ta'Ron Keith actually leads the team in receptions with 24.
Based on that last statistic, you might have guessed the Falcons don't have much of a passing attack. You would indeed be correct.
Bowling Green is one of the many teams in the MAC that have used multiple quarterbacks this season. It's hard to predict how that will play out for the rest of the season, but it rotated both Camden Orth and former Missouri/Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak in its most recent game.
That duo has combined to throw eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a bottom-five FBS passing offense by my numbers.
Falcons Defense
Bowling Green's defense has some nice pieces and has played much better as a whole than the offense.
The Falcons feature three very good cornerbacks in Jalen Huskey, Jordan Oladokun and Davon Ferguson. They do miss the versatile Jordan Anderson, who transferred to UCLA, but this is a very strong secondary with just one glaring hole at one of the safety spots.
BG had an impossible task of replacing star defensive end Karl Brooks, whom the Green Bay Packers selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. He did everything for the Falcons, dominating against the run and also causing immense chaos in opposing backfields. It also had to replace its best interior pass rusher in Walter Haire.
The Falcons haven't found a replacement for either, which has caused major issues against the run. Their defensive front can really be pushed around, ranking bottom-five nationally in Stuff Rate and in the bottom 15 in Rush Success Rate.
However, opposing rushing attacks haven't hurt them too much with explosive runs since BG has a pair of very solid tackling linebackers in Darren Anders and Joseph Sipp Jr. The safeties also do a commendable job in run support.
Therefore, while teams can get 3-4 yards a pop without much risk of a negative play, they aren't breaking too many big plays, which Bowling Green hopes eventually leads to its secondary forcing a mistake.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
The Falcons have a fairly manageable remaining schedule, needing just to split four games to get to bowl eligibility. They will host Ball State and rival Toledo while hitting the highway for two bottom-feeders in Western Michigan and Kent State.
I'll actually look to fade them against Ball State, which can defend the run while potentially looking to back them (depending on the number) against the Rockets, who have struggled in that department.
For what it's worth, the special teams are a horror.
Stock Recommendation:Hold
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There had been some growing optimism around the Akron program since Joe Moorhead arrived in the rubber capital. However, that has all been put on temporary hold after a 1-7 start to the season.
The Zips had a few chances earlier in the season to pick up a couple more wins. They lost by only three at Temple to start the season, then came up on the short end of the stick in two overtime contests against Indiana and Buffalo.
Since that second overtime loss to the Bulls, they’ve dropped three more games by a combined 75 points.
They still haven’t picked up an FBS victory but that could change on Wednesday night at home against bottom-feeder Kent State. If not, it could be staring down the barrel of a 1-11 season with a tough final three-game stretch, which would be a major setback for a program that had been building the slightest bit of momentum.
Zips Offense
The Zips had potential on offense coming into the year with dual-threat quarterback DJ Irons back along with a talented group of wide receivers and a talented transfer running back from Florida.
It would all come down to the offensive line, which has been an abomination in recent seasons at Akron.
Well, unfortunately for Moorhead, there has been no substantial improvement, which squashed the potential of this offense. Not one single player up front is playing well, and some have even regressed from one of the nation's worst units.
The offense also really misses wide receiver Shocky Jacques-Louis, who led the team with 74 catches in 2022. Nobody else has emerged as the alpha to fill that void.
Then, things went from bad to worse went Irons suffered a season-ending injury. Since that point, Akron has tried out both Jeff Undercuffler and former Virginia Tech transfer Tahj Bullock. That duo has combined to throw three touchdowns and nine interceptions. Bullock is still too raw of a passer, and Undercuffler — who holds the ball way too long — is a walking, breathing turnover.
Running back Lorenzo Lingard has shined in his first season at Akron. He’s capable of breaking off long runs and also contributes in the passing game, but there’s only so much he can do, especially against stacked boxes.
To put it bluntly, this offense stinks, especially now without Irons under center.
Zips Defense
The Akron defense has actually played OK at times despite being compromised by the offense on a weekly basis.
From a Success Rate perspective, the Zips have performed admirably, but they've allowed far too many explosive plays (bottom-10 nationally) due to an abundance of missed assignments and broken tackles.
The linebacker group has taken a step back after losing tackling machine Bubba Arslanian and two other starters.
The pass rush hasn't been able to duplicate the success Akron enjoyed last year with Victor Jones and Zach Morton, although former Jackson State transfer CJ Nunnally does deserve credit for his level of play off the edge.
On paper, the secondary has the most talent and experience on this side of the ball. Darrian Lewis can play a pretty good slot, while cornerback Tyson Durant has improved on the outside.
The safety duo of Corey Thomas and KJ Martin also has playmaking ability. The problem is they're on the field too much, don't get any help from the pass rush and have allowed too many explosive plays on coverage busts.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
The special teams have arguably fared even worse than the offense, which speaks volumes.
All you need to know is Akron has used three different kickers to attempt field goals this season. That trio has gone a combined 6-of-13 with only one attempt from beyond 50 yards.
I'm not sure I can ever throw money behind this Akron team this season, but we are probably at the bottom of the market on the Zips since losing Irons.
Stock Recommendation:Hold
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I won't spend too much time on Kent State since it started the season as my worst power-rated team and haven't moved.
It was always going to be a complete rebuild after this roster and staff was completely gutted in the offseason. The Golden Flashes are basically starting over this year.
Golden Flashes Offense
Kent State unbelievably had to replace all 11 starters from last season's "Flash Fast" offense. As you might imagine, it has not gone well. This is the worst offense in the country. There are almost no redeeming qualities.
Wide receiver Chrishon McCray has flashed at times, especially considering the level of quarterback play he's had to work with. The running back room has talent, but they get absolutely no blocking from the worst offensive line in college football.
Speaking of quarterbacks, Kent State has used both Michael Alaimo and Tommy Ulatowski. To illustrate how bad the quarterbacks have performed, in their last game against Buffalo, Ulatkowski finished 5-of-12 for 27 yards and Alaimo 7-of-14 for 51 yards. Pitiful.
As a result, new head coach Kenni Burns has apparently had enough, hinting he may try out a few new options moving forward. Who knows what that entails, but maybe we possibly see Kansas State transfer Jaren Lewis or Devin Kargman at some point.
Regardless, it's a circus.
Golden Flashes Defense
Last year, the offense got all of the press, while the defense struggled mightily. Well, it's the opposite this year.
The defense has actually played OK at times, especially relative to the offensive production. The Golden Flashes had a lot more experience on this side of the ball, especially in the front seven, which has held up against opposing run games with CJ West up front and a solid group of linebackers, including Missouri transfer Devin Nicholson.
Unfortunately, it doesn't matter how well you defend the run if you can't get a stop when teams drop back to pass. To put it mildly, Kent State's secondary has been a sieve across the board.
The Golden Flashes just don't have much talent in the defensive backfield, especially after losing top cornerback Montre Miller to West Virginia.
Even their linebackers who have played the run well like CJ Harris haven't been able to hold their water in coverage. It also doesn't help when you can't really generate a pass rush unless it's coming from West up the middle.
Additional Notes and Stock Recommendation
We have probably reached the bottom of the market on Kent State, but some teams are just unbettable all season long in college football because bettors nor the market can ever catch up to how bad they really are.
The 2023 Golden Flashes may fit that bill.
Everybody knows they are awful, yet they still have only covered one game against an FBS team all season, which came on the road at Arkansas oddly enough.
Hey, at least Andrew Glass is having a rebound year kicking field goals!
Stock Recommendation:Hold
