Tuesday marks an important day in our country's history, as weekday MACtion makes its annual debut. The best league in the land.
To get you caught up on where all these teams stand, I've completed my annual midseason MAC Manifesto. It should be a wild ride to the finish line with a number of teams still in the mix for a MAC title in the first year without divisions.
I'm personally just sticking with my preseason Bowling Green ticket, so I won't be adding any futures before tomorrow, but I did include a stock rating for each team (buy, sell or hold).
Hopefully, this can help you have a better understanding of where these teams stand and how they potentially match up before you load your Tuesday and Wednesday night action.
2024 MAC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bowling Green | +220 |
| Western Michigan | +290 |
| Miami (OH) | +300 |
| Ohio | +450 |
| Toledo | +1000 |
| Buffalo | +2000 |
| Ball State | +6500 |
| Northern Illinois | +30000 |
| Eastern Michigan | +30000 |
| Central Michigan | +30000 |
| Kent State | +50000 |
| Akron | +50000 |
Odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Nov. 5.
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Bowling Green Falcons
MAC Record: 3-1 · Projected: 7-1 · Power Rating: 81st
At full strength, the Falcons are the best and most balanced team in the league. In nonconference play, they lost on the road by one possession to potential College Football Playoff teams Penn State and Texas A&M.
They did drop a home league game to Northern Illinois, 17-7, but that came after losing starting quarterback Connor Bazelak to injury in the second half with a 7-6 lead.
With backup Camden Orth injured, the Falcons turned to third-stringer Lucian Anderson III, who went 2-for-9 for 10 yards and an interception.
Bazelak has since returned and led BG to a dominant road win at Toledo in its most recent game.
Bowling Green Offense
The veteran Bazelak leads an offense that runs a lot of heavy sets with three good backs in Terion Stewart, Jaison Patterson and Jamal Johnson (the best receiving threat), but the star of the show is tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
The potential Mackey Award winner with an NFL future is actually PFF's highest-graded player in all of college football.
The offensive line isn't great by any stretch with the Falcons even still trying to find the best combination up front, especially with opening week starting left tackle Nick Reimer (Merrimack transfer) dealing with injuries throughout the season.
While the passing attack is efficient, the wide receiver room — which had to replace all three starters from 2023 — really lacks explosiveness with Auburn transfer Malcolm Johnson Jr. as the only reliable threat.
Kansas State transfer RJ Garcia was expected to contribute at wideout, but has yet to return from injury to make his season debut — although he did recently dress.
Bowling Green Defense
Coming into the season, the defense had a number of questions to answer, specifically at linebacker where it had to replace studs Darren Anders and Cashius Howell, who now starts for Texas A&M. That duo had 14 of Bowling Green's 33 sacks last season.
Brock Horne has played really well at one middle linebacker spot in Bowling Green's ultra-aggressive 3-4 defense, but the group is down as a whole.
The Falcons are a bit vulnerable against the run, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA in part due to their aggressive nature, which can lead to explosives, but also as a result of the losses in the second level and a defensive line that can be pushed around a bit.
BG also had to replace two very good cornerbacks in nickel Davon Ferguson and Jalen Huskey, who now starts for Maryland.
However, they hit in the transfer portal with their replacements around returning starter Jordan Oladokun, who's arguably the top defensive back in the conference.
PICK SIX, courtesy of @JordanOladokun! @BG_Football | #MACtionpic.twitter.com/CKnmo0BG1A
— #MACtion (@MACSports) October 26, 2024
As a result, the coverage has remained elite — with the Falcons ranking in the top 20 nationally in both Success Rate and EPA per Pass despite some expected negative turnover regression from last season.
Bowling Green Special Teams
I had concerns about the special teams coming into the season, but they've been better than expected in that department, grading out around the national average.
The kicking situation remains shaky, but the punting has improved with John Henderson taking over those duties.
Signal: Buy
Bowling Green controls its own destiny for a trip to the MAC title game.
The Falcons have two remaining road games against inferior opponents in Ball State and Central Michigan, while they get two of the other primary contenders in Western Michigan and Miami (OH) both at home.
Those two results will likely determine whether or not the Falcons make it to Detroit.
The defending MAC champs are better than their 4-4 record indicates with their four losses coming against Notre Dame, Northwestern, Cincinnati and Toledo.
The RedHawks, who are one of only 29 teams in the country with a net yards per play margin of +1 or better in non-garbage time, are also starting to play their best football of the season with three straight double-digit league wins.
Miami (OH) Offense
Coming into the season, it was all about Brett Gabbert staying healthy, which he has rarely done for a full season in the past.
He did through the first seven games but left Miami's most recent contest with a shoulder injury. He returned in the second for a bit in a blowout, but that's certainly worth monitoring moving forward. Without Gabbert, the offense is toast.
With the recent emergence of Keyon Mozee, who has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three straight games, Miami's deep running back room has come to life of late working behind a veteran offensive line that has an abundance of size for a MAC team.
The interior has had some shuffling, but it's a very good run-blocking unit that can generate good push up front, and I think it now has the right guy at center.
While the pass protection can break down at times, Gabbert usually has enough time to run a fairly efficient aerial attack on those dropbacks when he's indeed kept clean.
Believe it or not, Gabbert has the lowest adjusted completion percentage in the nation when under pressure at 36.4%.
However, the wide receiver group lacks explosiveness after Gage Larvadain transferred to South Carolina in the offseason, while a tight-end group with high preseason expectations has been a disappointment.
Overall, this offense should continue to trend up, assuming Gabbert stays healthy.
Despite ranking in the top 50 in early downs EPA, Miami ranks in the bottom five nationally in late-down Success Rate. Early down data is much more predictive, which suggests potential positive regression coming on third and fourth downs moving forward.
Miami (OH) Defense
Miami's veteran defense is once again very stout. It's a group I have rated inside the top 50 nationally with only NIU also in that group among MAC teams.
However, it's definitely not as dominant as the group we saw last year.
Brian Ugwu, who leads FBS in pressures, is a very good defensive end, but he doesn't get much help in the pass-rushing department. The RedHawks really miss Caiden Woullard (now at Oklahoma) on the other side.
The defensive line can also be pushed around a bit, but head coach Chuck Martin can at least rely on an outstanding linebacker corps to clean everything up on the second level with Matt Salopek, Ty Wise, Corban Hondru and Oscar McWood. The latter two have played more this season due to Miami increasing the frequency of its three-linebacker packages.
Along with those linebackers, a rock-solid veteran safety tandem in Eli Blakey and Silas Walters provides Miami with a lot of teeth in the middle of the field.
That's needed because this has also been one of the best defenses in the nation in terms of limiting explosive plays.
The biggest question mark coming into the season was at cornerback after the loss of Yahsyn McKee.
Raion Strader needed to step up as the No. 1 guy after a promising freshman season. He's done that for the most part, but the corner spot opposite him remains a major work in progress. Redshirt freshman Mychal Yharbrough won that job and had started to improve, but he was recently lost to a season-ending injury.
The secondary was already lacking quality depth, so this could become a major issue against competent passing attacks the rest of the way, as I'm not sure Luke Evans is the answer.
Miami (OH) Special Teams
The special teams are very good once again but just not nationally elite like last season.
Signal: Hold
This all comes down to whether or not Gabbert is fully healthy, which it feels like I've been saying for almost a decade. I'll be monitoring closely in the RedHawks' next game at Ball State.
Following that, Miami gets Kent State before the schedule toughens up a bit with NIU and Bowling Green to close out the regular season.
The RedHawks are definitely in the mix to go back-to-back and should get to Detroit if they win out, which might come down the final game on the road at Bowling Green.
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It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Huskies, who have seen extreme highs (upset Notre Dame) and lows (upset by Buffalo) en route to a disappointing 4-4 record.
However, they have been a bit unlucky overall with all four losses coming by one possession.
Northern Illinois Offense
The major question coming into the season surrounded the quarterback position after the graduation of Rocky Lombardi.
The answer was Ethan Hampton, who led NIU to its best win in program history over Notre Dame in South Bend. Unfortunately for the Huskies, Hampton suffered an injury and missed two games, but he did return in NIU's most recent contest.
Even though he didn't start, he took most of the reps throughout the game.
Despite losing its top two offensive linemen, the group up front still had a ton of experience. It's performed admirably so far this season, particularly in run blocking for NIU's heavy ground-based attack that likes to use a high frequency of heavy sets with multiple tight ends.
Stud running back Antario Brown also missed some time due to injury but should be back at full health for the rest of the season. He and Iowa transfer Gavin Williams are a dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield.
The passing attack really lacks explosiveness, but we could see an uptick in that area moving forward with the recent emergence of Cam Thompson and Trayvon Rudolph now back in the lineup after also missing time due to injury.
Hampton certainly has to play better. He has nine touchdowns to five interceptions, but per PFF, he has only five Big-Time Throws to 11 Turnover-Worthy Plays. His numbers also fall off a cliff under any type of pressure.
While I still don't fully trust Hampton and the overall offensive numbers are extremely underwhelming, I'm looking to buy this group following a recent significant improvement in the health department.
Northern Illinois Defense
Statistically, this is the best defense in the MAC and sits inside the top 20 nationally in points per game allowed. The secondary, which returned basically everybody from a season ago, has been absolutely nails.
The linebacker position has taken a step back in NIU's base 4-2-5 after it lost its top two, but Jaden Dolphin has bounced back nicely after a down 2023. However, the Huskies are a bit weaker against the run than the pass as a result.
Despite losing two of their key edge rushers, the defensive line is probably the strongest in the MAC with an abundance of adequate depth. They do a tremendous job of limiting explosive plays. The Havoc and turnovers should eventually follow suit.
Northern Illinois Special Teams
NIU's special teams have been a major problem outside of the kick return unit. It has allowed five blocked kicks and has had horrid punting with a shaky field-goal kicker from distance. This certainly could continue to haunt the Huskies in close games.
Signal: Buy
I'll be looking to buy the Huskies for the rest of the season. All four of their losses have come by one possession, and all easily could've had reverse results:
- vs. Buffalo by three in overtime following the huge win over Notre Dame (outgained the Bulls, 359-184)
- at NC State (outgained the Wolfpack, 279-171)
- at Toledo with a backup QB (outgained the Rockets, 391-285)
- at Ball State by two on a game-winning 52-yard field goal as time expired while also rotating quarterbacks (-4 turnover margin)
This team could easily be undefeated, and I do think it suffered a bit of an extended hangover following that monumental win over the Irish.
The offense should be closer to full strength, while the defense — which has stayed extremely healthy all year — is the best in the MAC for my money.
The remaining schedule includes a pair of relatively easy home games against Akron and Central Michigan, but I'll be more interested in backing the Huskies in their road games against Western Michigan and Miami (OH).
Toledo has been a fixture in the MAC Championship in recent seasons, but it might be an uphill climb for the Rockets to reach Detroit for a third consecutive season. They have started out 3-2 in league play but could easily be sitting in an even worse position in the standings.
They survived a game-winning two-point conversion attempt by Eastern Michigan last week, which came after the Eagles completed a Hail Mary as time expired.
They also got a bit fortunate in a seven-point victory over Northern Illinois, which scored only six points despite amassing over 400 yards of offense with a backup quarterback.
Toledo getting six stops on eight NIU fourth-down attempts was the difference.
Toledo did beat Miami by 10, but both of its losses came in blowout fashion against Bowling Green and Buffalo. The Rockets were even outplayed statistically at home by UMass.
Toledo Offense
After the losses of Dequan Finn (transferred to Baylor) and running back Peny Boone (transferred to UCF), the Toledo running game was expected to take a massive dip in 2024, especially with an offensive line that had to replace all five starters and is now dealing with a key injury at center.
Well, that's exactly what has transpired. The Rockets have absolutely no ground game to speak of, ranking in the bottom three nationally in EPA per Rush, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.
The entire offense relies on the inconsistent Tucker Gleason getting the ball to the league's best pass-catching room, led by sixth-year senior Jerjuan Newton, Junior Vandeross III and tight end Anthony Torres.
It's an explosive passing attack, but there's just no balance at all, making them very hard to trust against quality defenses, especially with a vulnerable offensive line.
Plus, Gleason has gotten away with way too many risky throws, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see more interceptions down the stretch. On the season, he has 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions but has a paltry 6:14 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play ratio, per PFF.
Toledo Defense
The defense is once again very formidable under defensive coordinator Vince Kehres, who runs a well-schooled scheme. However, they are certainly a tick down from last year after some key offseason losses, including;
- cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (drafted in the first round by the Eagles)
- cornerback RJ Delancy III (transferred to Wisconsin)
- cornerback Chris McDonald (signed with the Bucs in the offseason)
- safety Zachary Ford
- safety Nate Bauer
- linebacker Dallas Gant (signed with the Vikings)
- defensive tackle Judge Culpepper (signed with the Bucs)
- defensive end Terrance Taylor
- defensive end Adrian Woliver
That's a lot of talented lost production.
Fortunately for Kehres, Avery Smith has been a revelation at cornerback, while the safety room is still one of the league's best with Maxen Hook and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.
Although, it's worth noting that McNeil-Warren was in street clothes in Toledo's most recent game, which is certainly worth monitoring for a pass defense that has certainly declined overall even if they still excel at limiting explosives.
The linebackers are also very stout against the run, and Darius Alexander is the best defensive tackle in the MAC. He headlines a defensive front that certainly has plenty of juice.
Toledo Special Teams
I have the special teams rated slightly below average nationally, but the Rockets do feature an explosive return game.
Signal: Sell
Toledo has a very favorable schedule to close out the regular season with two home games against Central Michigan and Ohio followed by a road date with Akron to close out the year.
That should get the Rockets to 6-2 in league play, but it might not be enough, especially with a head-to-head loss against Bowling Green.
I continue to be lower than the market on Toledo, so the Rockets definitely get a sell signal.
They will go as Gleason goes, but he's as inconsistent as any quarterback in the MAC. The highs are very high, but the lows are extremely low.
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After a disappointing 4-8 campaign, there was still a lot of preseason hype in Kalamazoo due to a very easy league schedule and a roster that ranked in the top-20 nationally in returning production — a rarity in the MAC these days.
Well, so far, so good, as the Broncos sit atop the MAC standings as the lone remaining undefeated team in league play.
Western Michigan Offense
For my money, this is the best offense in the MAC, especially now that the Broncos are at full strength. Earlier this season, they were missing a few key pieces but have since been absolutely rolling after getting everybody back in the mix.
It all starts up front with the league's best offensive line, led by Addison West and Jacob Gideon in the interior. The backfield is loaded with a trio of capable backs in Zahir Abdus-Salaam, Jaden Dixon and the now-healthy Jalen Buckley.
Blake Bosma is also an excellent pass-catching tight end.
The passing attack isn't overly explosive, but it's extremely efficient, especially with Kenneth Womack back healthy.
Most importantly, former ODU transfer Hayden Wolff has been superb at running the offense under new coordinator Walt Bell. He has 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions on the season with a 78.6% adjusted completion percentage.
Opponents that can't get pressure will have no shot to slow down this offense, as Wolff has essentially been perfect when kept clean this season.
Western Michigan Defense
While the offense is elite for MAC standards, the defense sits on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
The Broncos haven't done anything well outside of creating some Havoc and forcing turnovers against bad teams. The secondary can't stop a nosebleed with only one reliable defensive back in cornerback Bilhal Kone.
They are slightly better against the run, but not by much.
Returning experience ultimately did not lead to better production as the Broncos had hoped on this side of the ball. They also haven't been able to replace the production of their two best players from last season in defensive end Marshawn Kneeland (drafted by the Cowboys) and cornerback Keni-H Lovely (signed with the Bills for a brief period).
Plus, the incoming transfers haven't hit, and new defensive coordinator Scott Power just isn't it.
The defense is probably what holds WMU back from winning a MAC title.
Western Michigan Special Teams
After some impoverished special teams units in recent years, this group has exceeded expectations by a country mile outside of punting, which it hasn't done often in league play.
Signal: Sell
Not only has Western had the easiest overall strength of schedule of any MAC team, but it has also played a laughable four-game stretch to open up league play with games against Buffalo, Kent State, Akron and Ball State.
To illustrate the difference between their high-powered offense and lousy defense, look no further than the final scores against Ball State (45-42) and Buffalo (48-41).
And while the Broncos beat Akron by 10, the Zips amassed over 500 total yards of offense, outgaining the Broncos by over 100 total net yards. They just couldn't overcome a -4 turnover margin.
Speaking of which, Western has benefited from a +9 turnover margin (12-3) in those four MAC victories.
Potential turnover regression certainly looms the rest of the way against a conference slate that will get much more difficult, starting with the next two against Northern Illinois and at Bowling Green.
This is the team I was most wrong on coming into the season after a complete rebuild with the Bobcats ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in returning production on both sides of the ball.
They also had to deal with turnover at both coordinator positions, but credit head coach Tim Albin for making it work with the benefit of one of the easiest schedules in the nation.
Ohio Offense
Despite losing quarterback Kurtis Rourke — who's now thriving for undefeated Indiana — its top back and 90% of the receiving production, Ohio has still fielded a decent offense due to its explosive rushing attack that is averaging close to eight yards on outside runs.
Quarterback Parker Navarro has plus-mobility, and Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus has been a revelation at running back. Although, it's worth noting he will miss an extended period of time — potentially the entire season — with an injury, which could have a negative impact.
But it definitely didn't slow the Bobs down in a 47-16 blowout win over Buffalo. Bowl standout Rickey Hunt Jr. will have to pick up the slack in his absence.
The passing attack remains very limited (outside the top 100 in EPA), but it's been better than expected even with Navarro getting benched on two separate occasions this season.
Navarro has gotten away with some throws to date and has only seven touchdowns to seven interceptions, but Northern Arizona transfer Coleman Owen — who scored three touchdowns in that blowout win over Buffalo — has been a revelation in the slot.
The rest of the wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired.
The offensive line, which had to replace three starters, has been a bit better than expected even with a constant shuffle at both tackle spots.
Don't get me wrong — this is still a fringe bottom-20 offense nationally, but I thought the entire operation would look much worse than it has.
Ohio Defense
Last year, the defense was one of the more underrated units at the G5 level, but I thought it would take a major step back after losing nine of its top 12 tacklers.
Well, that hasn't necessarily been the case, especially against the run, where the Bobs have excelled.
What has helped the Bobs stay afloat on this side of the ball despite all of the turnover? Well, they hit on a few transfers, namely Marcel Walker-Burgess from Nevada and Ben McNaboe from North Dakota along with the emergence of Shay Taylor at linebacker.
Those three have really provided a boost in the front seven, along with edge Bradley Weaver — Ohio's best returning defender.
The secondary still has holes for a coverage unit that ranks in the bottom 20 in EPA despite playing a laughable schedule of opposing pass offenses.
The safety play is very dicey, especially with Austin Brawley out. He's missed three straight games due to a personal matter. Roman Parodie and Tank Pearson are a decent but unspectacular tandem at cornerback.
The Bobs even benefited from playing South Alabama without starting quarterback Gio Lopez, who was ruled out in pregame. And in their two-point win over Central Michigan, they got to face the Chippewas' third-string quarterback for the majority of the game after Joey Labas went down with an injury.
Their other wins came against Morgan State, Akron and Buffalo. Meanwhile, their two losses came in blowout fashion against Kentucky and Syracuse.
Ohio Special Teams
The special teams haven't been terrible but grade out below the national average.
Signal: Sell
Ohio has had a very easy league schedule to date outside of a game against Miami (OH) in which it got blown out.
However, that should continue through the rest of the season with three of its four remaining games against bottom-feeders Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Kent State.
The one tough game at Toledo will likely determine whether or not Ohio makes a surprise appearance in Detroit.
With that said, moving forward, I'm looking to fade the Bobs, who have really benefited from a number of ancillary scheduling factors and are likely near the top of their market value.
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Now, we are getting into the bottom half of the league with six teams I have all ranked in the bottom 20 in FBS.
Buffalo came into this year with low expectations after a complete rebuild in the offseason. Not only did the Bulls lose a lot from a roster perspective, but they also hired a new head coach in Pete Lembo, who brought on two new coordinators.
Buffalo Offense
Offensively, Buffalo had as much uncertainty coming into 2024 as any team in the country. The Bulls had to replace their quarterback (who transferred to EMU), top two backs and top five receivers.
CJ Ogbonna won the starting quarterback job and the dual-threat former SEMO transfer has actually exceeded all of my preseason expectations.
On the year, he has 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions with 10 more Big-Time Throws than Turnover-Worthy Plays.
It's still a very meager passing attack but isn't a complete bottom-of-the-barrel group as I had projected. Ogbonna has been particularly effective in throwing the deep ball, especially off play-action.
The ground game has been more efficient than the passing attack in large part due to the emergence of running back Al-Jay Henderson, who gets to run behind an offensive line with plus size.
Overall, it's a bottom-20 offense, but I really thought we'd be looking at a bottom-10 or bottom-five unit coming into the season.
Buffalo Defense
Opponents can efficiently run on Buffalo, but they're not going to get any chunk plays since the Bulls have very good safeties and the best linebacker duo in the league in Red Murdock and Shaun Dolac, who clean everything that gets through to the second level — which happens frequently against a weak interior along the defensive line.
The defensive ends are in much better shape than the tackles, allowing Buffalo to have serious prowess in terms of generating Havoc. I also don't mind some of the pieces in the secondary, although UB has certainly fared better against the run metrically.
While it's not an elite defense by any stretch, it's a fringe top-100 unit, which puts the Bulls clearly ahead of the bottom six defenses in the league.
Structurally, there are plenty of similarities to what Miami (OH) runs since new DC Joe Bowen came over from Oxford, where he served as the linebackers coach and run game coordinator.
Some of his schematic changes have definitely helped improve the run defense.
Buffalo Special Teams
As expected, special teams guru Pete Lembo has improved Buffalo's third phase in his first season as head coach. The kick return and coverage units have had some lapses, but they are much better than they've been in years.
Signal: Hold
Fortunately for the Bulls, who are one win away from bowl eligibility, they have a very easy remaining MAC schedule with games against Ball State, Kent State and Eastern Michigan with only the latter coming on the road.
I do believe two of their more impressive wins on the season against Toledo and NIU were aided by the scheduling spot. They were also dominated statistically in that overtime win over the Huskies.
The Bulls have also had some ugly lopsided losses (48-3 to UConn, 38-0 to UMass, 47-16 to Ohio), but they did go toe-to-toe with first-place Western Michigan in a wild affair and recently put up 41 in a road win at Akron.
It's not a team I'm looking to sell, but I'm also not overly interested in backing the Bulls as a favorite. It'll basically just come down to matchups (and potentially weather).
EMU had a lot of questions coming into the season, ranking outside the top 100 in returning production on both sides of the ball. Despite reaching a bowl last year, this was not a good football team.
In fact, the Eagles were one of the worst teams to ever make a bowl from a power ratings perspective, but they picked up six wins across a very soft schedule and then got their doors blown off in their bowl game.
Chris Creighton is a very good head coach. He doesn't have ample talent to work with but will usually squeeze every last drop out of what he's working with.
EMU also rarely beats itself with penalties or special teams mistakes, so it's usually going to win the field-position battle and all of those battles in the margins.
Eastern Michigan Offense
Unlike last season, EMU actually has the ability to complete the forward pass.
The aerial attack has improved significantly due to a pair of intra-conference transfers in quarterback Cole Snyder and slot wide receiver Oran Singleton, who have had very good chemistry from the jump.
The offensive line remains a major work in progress with Creighton still shuffling guys in and out as he tries to find the right combination up front. They've had major issues at both tackle spots in particular.
Running back Delbert Mimms has been serviceable in the backfield. He'll get the necessary yardage more times than not, but there really isn't much explosiveness across the entire offense. Plus, the line isn't great at generating a push.
Eastern Michigan Defense
Last year, EMU's undersized defensive line really struggled to defend the run, but it has really improved in that area in 2024 due to a couple of diamond-in-the-rough portal finds from the lower levels to go along with some key returnees in Peyton Price and Justin Jefferson.
The linebacker play isn't at the same level as last season when Joe Sparacio and Chase Kline held it down on the second level.
EMU hoped they could fill that void with a pair of transfers in James Djonkam (Arizona State) and JT Killen (Coastal Carolina). While Djonkam has been a pleasant surprise, Killen never lived up to the hype and has since left the program.
However, that actually led to an upgrade at the position with Luke Murphy filling it admirably, especially against the run. The Eagles are also very good tacklers on all three levels, which has really limited explosive runs.
The weakness on defense has been the coverage on the back end.
Daiquan White hasn't taken that next step on the outside after a very promising freshman campaign in the slot. Plus, Joshua Scott was lost to an injury for a second straight season after limited action.
The safeties have played well, but the cornerbacks are just not that sticky in coverage, which leaves the Eagles vulnerable against competent passing attacks.
It's also worth noting that EMU has held opponents to just 4-of-17 (23.5%) on fourth-down conversions, which is likely not sustainable.
Eastern Michigan Special Teams
It's a Chris Creighton team. The special teams will do their job — although the Eagles don't grade out as highly as I would've expected at this point in the season. They do have a very good kicker in Jesus Gomez and punter in Mitchell Tomasek.
Signal: Buy
EMU is better than last season due to an upgrade at quarterback and an improved run-stopping unit but still has clear weaknesses. The offensive isn't explosive, the line has ongoing issues and the cornerback group is beatable.
The Eagles have five wins on the season, which have come over UMass, Jacksonville State (in double overtime), St. Francis, Kent State and Central Michigan in a game it trailed by 18 in the fourth quarter against a Chips team playing with a backup quarterback.
They easily could have two more losses — although their last two games have both ended in defeats by a combined five points.
They've certainly benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the country to date (149th including FCS), but I'm assuming they will continue to be a pest as always under Creighton.
Looking at their remaining schedule, the Eagles take on Ohio and Buffalo before closing the year against Western Michigan.
I actually like how they match up with the limited passing attacks of the Bobcats and Bulls, so I'll certainly be looking to back them in those two games.
I could even make a case to back Creighton as a bigger 'dog against WMU's bad defense.
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Ball State suffered massive blowout losses early in the season against Miami and James Madison, but besides those two games, all the Cardinals have done is play close games with each of the other six results coming by 10 points or fewer.
In league play, they sit at 2-2 with a -2 point differential. All four of their conference games have been decided by a field goal or less.
After coming up on the short end of the stick against Western Michigan and Central Michigan (which won a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds), Ball State's luck finally changed against Kent State and Northern Illinois in a pair of two-point victories with the latter coming on a game-winning 52-yard field goal as time expired.
The Cardinals have embodied the spirit of MACtion to the fullest so far, so be prepared for some wild ones if you're betting their games.
Ball State Offense
Ball State's offense has been better than advertised after going through a seismic scheme change compared to what it ran at the end of last season with Kiael Kelly running an option-based attack. The new quarterback is Kadin Semonza, who definitely provides the Cardinals with more juice in the passing game under a new play-caller.
While Semonza hasn't been great by any stretch, he's certainly capable of moving the ball on MAC defenses. He also has some help.
The offensive line has played very well, especially in pass protection. Ball State lost its starting left tackle for the season, but Chris Hood has filled in admirably and is coming off his two best games.
Tanner Koziol is also one of the best tight ends at the Group of Five level, while EKU transfer running back Braedon Sloan has filled the void left by Marquez Cooper.
The wide receiver room isn't very explosive, but this offense can efficiently move the ball and needs to because of the porous defense.
Ball State Defense
The defense is putrid. There's some pass rush but nothing else to note after the Cardinals saw a severely underrated defense from last year get absolutely gutted in the offseason.
Coming into the year, Ball State ranked in the bottom five in returning production and lost a very good defensive coordinator. The results have not been pretty. Unless the pass rush is creating Havoc, it isn't going to get many stops. Against FBS foes, no team has allowed more yards per play (7.4) than the Cardinals in 2024.
Ball State Special Teams
The special teams have been fine.
Signal: Hold
Expect the shootouts to continue against a tough remaining schedule that includes games against Buffalo, Miami, Bowling Green and Ohio. The Cardinals could be a feisty underdog in some of those spots.
CMU has played in some of the wildest MAC games to date before the bottom fell out last week in a blowout loss at Miami (OH). Their first three league games were all decided by one possession with wild in-game swings in each.
Central Michigan Offense
Central Michigan had much more potential on offense before quarterback Joey Labas went down with a season-ending injury.
He wasn't lighting the world on fire but had started to play better after a disastrous two-game stretch in nonconference play against FIU and Illinois.
Backup Bert Emanuel Jr. — more of a running threat — came into the season injured and suffered another recent injury, which has left the QB1 job to freshman Tyler Jefferson.
He has some mobility, but can't throw the ball at all, which leaves CMU completely reliant on a fairly potent rushing attack. Led by lead back Marion Lukes, the Chips actually rank inside the top 30 in both Success Rate and EPA. They've been especially effective running inside between the tackles.
There's just no help now through the air with a passing output of 131, 92 and 62 yards since losing Labas.
Plus, the left side of the offensive line remains a major mess. They recently kicked Davis Heinzen out from left guard to left tackle, but he hasn't necessarily excelled at the new position. That has left a gaping hole at left guard.
If you can stop the run, you can choke out the Chips. And defenses can now just load the box without much worry.
Central Michigan Defense
The defense hasn't been great, but there are some decent pieces to work with. The front seven has some guys who can get in the backfield, and I actually like the linebacker room.
The Chips also have two capable cornerbacks in Donte Kent in the slot and Da'Raun McKinney on the outside. However, the other cornerback spot and both safeties have played very poorly.
As a result, while the pass defense has been OK on a down-to-down basis, the Chips allow way too many explosive plays. They really miss Trey Jones on the back end after he transferred to Texas A&M.
It's likely a unit that will continue to make plays when it can get pressure — a key of Robb Akey's defense — but also remain vulnerable to explosives through the air and on the ground when it doesn't get home.
Central Michigan Special Teams
They have been fine on special teams, grading out right around the national average overall. That's actually a bit of a surprise to me, as I really had concerns across the board outside of the return game.
Signal: Hold
I honestly have no idea what to make of this team.
The Chips are now down to their third-string quarterback and have the league's hardest remaining schedule with matchups against Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois.
I also just don't know where they're at mentally after watching their last game, but I'd potentially look at their unders the rest of the way with the state of their now one-dimensional offense and a defense that I believe may be a bit undervalued.
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The Zips have shown signs of significant improvement at times this season, but they've also had some head-scratching performances.
After a brutal nonconference schedule, they lost by 20 to Ohio after the Bobcats pulled away in the fourth quarter. They then played both Bowling Green and Western Michigan very tough in a pair of one-possession losses.
All signs were pointing up headed into their game against Eastern Michigan, and they took care of business to pick up their first MAC win of the season — although they nearly blew a massive lead in the process.
However, Akron couldn't capitalize on that momentum with a disappointing home loss to Buffalo last week. Similar to the loss against Western Michigan in which its offense moved the ball with relative ease, it just couldn't overcome a -4 turnover margin.
On the season, the Zips have a -10 turnover margin and have lost eight of their 11 fumbles. There could be some positive turnover regression looming.
Akron Offense
Akron brought in a pair of transfers to jump-start its offense in quarterback Ben Finley (NC State and Cal) and running back Jordon Simmons (Michigan State).
Finley has been OK in league play albeit inconsistent, while Simmons has done his part when he gets the rock. Adrian Norton has also been very productive at wide receiver, but it's the same old story for the Akron offense.
The offensive line simply can't block, which holds everything else back. Finley isn't very mobile, so everything really falls apart when he's under pressure. Akron has been lost when opponents blitz.
Akron Defense
The secondary lost some very underrated pieces to Power 4 programs in the offseason, so the pass defense has suffered immensely as you'd expect.
The Zips are still pretty solid against the run with an underrated front seven that can certainly create some Havoc.
However, against teams with efficient passing attacks, Akron will struggle to get consistent stops with a pretty poor coverage unit.
Akron Special Teams
Akron's special teams have been pretty decent overall even with a horrid kick-return unit. The Zips have one of the more underrated punters in college football.
Signal: Buy
The Zips have had the hardest league schedule to date and the most difficult overall of any MAC team.
I'm looking to buy the dip after last week's blowout loss to Buffalo with the home game against Toledo the one I'm most interested in — although, the offensive line could be a major issue against both the Rockets and NIU.
Improvement was expected in Year 2 of the Kenni Burns era after he inherited a brand new roster in 2023 that amazingly had zero returning starters. It was a rough year for the Golden Flashes, who went 0-11 against FBS teams.
Well, to date, we haven't seen much of a jump in production, as they couldn't even beat the FCS team on their schedule, suffering a bad home loss against St. Francis, which came sandwiched in between a trio of brutal nonconference road games against Pitt, Penn State and Tennessee.
They did lose a close game against Ball State, but their other three MAC losses have all come by at least 20 points.
Kent State Offense
Kent State is down to third-string quarterback Tommy Ulatowski after it lost Devin Kargman and JD Sherrod to season-ending injuries.
Ulatowski has started all four league games but has struggled in his past two starts (three touchdowns to four interceptions with 192 total passing yards) after showing some promise over his first two (seven touchdowns to two interceptions with 739 total passing yards).
The passing attack has some explosiveness with two very good weapons on the outside in Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea, but the offense doesn't do anything else well.
Ulatowski is also constantly under pressure. In fact, he's one of only two qualified quarterbacks in FBS (Ethan Crawford, Southern Miss) with a pressure rate north of 50% at 54.7%.
Former P4 transfer Ky Thomas is a solid back, but he gets no help up front from an offensive line that just can't open up any holes. As a result, Kent State is averaging a paltry 2.4 yards per carry — the lowest mark in FBS.
Kent State Defense
Unlike the offense, which hoped experience would lead to better results, the defense had to be rebuilt. Coming into 2024, Kent State ranked in the bottom 20 nationally in returning production on that side of the ball.
The secondary actually fared OK last season relative to the rest of the roster, but three starters had to be replaced.
San Diego State transfer Dallas Branch recently returned from injury at one cornerback spot, which should help some during the rest of league play, but the secondary gets absolutely no help due to a complete lack of pressure.
The loss of defensive tackle CJ West, who transferred to Indiana, in the spring really hurt this defensive front. Believe it or not, West was the only player with multiple sacks last year.
This is arguably the worst defense in the nation. Against FBS competition, only Ball State has allowed more yards per play (7.4-7.2).
Kent State Special Teams
Like the offense and defense, the special teams are also very poor. I have the Golden Flashes rated in the bottom 10 nationally in this department as well.
Signal: Buyer Beware
This is a bad football team in all three phases. Maybe we have reached the bottom of its market value, but it's also possible the market never finds the bottom.
Bet at your own peril — even in the annual home game for the Wagon Wheel against Akron.
