The Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt) take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (10-2, 7-1) in the 2024 Sun Belt Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Perhaps the most underrated team in the country, Marshall has done nothing but exceed oddsmakers’ expectations all season.
Not only did it fly past its preseason win total of 5.5 with 9 wins during the regular season, but it finished the year 10-1-1 against the spread. The Thundering Herd were the most profitable team in the country to bet on.
They had the 8th-best odds to win the Sun Belt before the season and are once again being doubted as 5.5-point underdogs.
Louisiana has earned its place as the favorites in this matchup with a 10-2 season, and its only loss in the last nine games came by 2 points to South Alabama.
Since the formation of the Sun Belt Championship game in 2018, Louisiana has qualified for 5 of the 7 title games. Marshall has reached the championship game for the first time and will look to continue to overperform expectations and win its 1st-ever Sun Belt title.
Louisiana enters as a -5.5 favorite with the over/under set at 58.
Let's dive into my Marshall vs. Louisiana predictions and college football picks for the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Marshall vs Louisiana Prediction & Best Bet
- Marshall vs Louisiana Pick: Marshall +6
My Louisiana vs. Marshall best bet is on the Thundering Herd to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Marshall vs Louisiana Odds
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 58 -107o / -114u | +180 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 58 -107o / -114u | -235 |
- Marshall vs Louisiana Point Spread: Marshall +6 (-110) · Louisiana -6 (-110)
- Marshall vs Louisiana Total: Over/Under 58
- Marshall vs Louisiana Moneyline: Marshall +180 · Louisiana -235
Marshall vs Louisiana Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Marshall Thundering Herd Betting Preview: Revolving Around the Run
A quarterback battle between a pair of transfers resulted in Stone Earle winning the QB1 role to start the season, but after four starts, Marshall made the full-time switch to Tulsa transfer Braylon Braxton and has gone 7-1 since.
Braxton is not an elite passer by any stretch, but he has done enough, and most importantly, has protected the football. He has 17 touchdowns through the air with just two interceptions on the year.
We know Marshall’s strength is running the ball.
Head coach Charles Huff was a longtime running backs coach with stops at schools like Penn State and Alabama. The Herd had a 1,000 rusher in each of the first three seasons under Huff, but this year, have split the workload more between A.J. Turner and Braxton.
Turner is a first-down threat on every carry, averaging 8.3 yards per carry, the most by any player with at least 100 rushing attempts.
Turner averages 78.6 yards per game on the ground, while Braxton rushed for 54.4 yards per game. The Thundering Herd also mix in Jordan Houston, and Ethan Payne serves as the goal-line back.
While the Marshall offense has been finding success on the ground, the defense has been keeping opponents grounded all season.
The Thundering Herd have a terrific secondary led by safety J.J. Roberts. They rank 29th in the country in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Marshall ranks third in the country in PFF’s Coverage grade. A big reason for that is it doesn't have to cover long with 2024 Sun Belt Player of the Year Mike Green getting after the quarterback.
Green is a monster off the edge for this defense and totaled a ridiculous 60 quarterback pressures this season while leading the country with 16 sacks.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview: Can UL Survive Without Wooldridge?
Louisiana will have to win this game without starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge, who broke his collarbone during Week 12 against South Alabama.
As crazy as it sounds considering Wooldridge was just named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year, I’m not sure how big the drop-off is without him.
Backup Chandler Fields has been at Louisiana for six years and is very experienced. He has started 12 games in his career and has thrown 24 touchdowns in the last three years.
Since Wooldridge went down, he has thrown five touchdowns with just one interception while completing 74.7% of his passes.
Fields has solid weapons to work with in receiver Lance LeGendre and tight end Terrance Carter. Louisiana ranks sixth in the country in Pass Success Rate on the season and should not be downgraded too much with Fields.
The running game has not been as efficient, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have three very good backs that share this backfield. Bill Davis (64.6). Zylan Perry (56.5) and Dre’lyn Washington (45.9) are all averaging over 45 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.
You could say that Louisiana has had some issues defensively this season. On the surface, it ranks second in the Sun Belt in yards per game allowed and scoring defense. But the advanced metrics tell a different story.
Louisiana ranks 134th in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed the worst in the country. It ranks outside of the top 100 at Finishing Drives allowed and doesn't create any Havoc.
A big reason for a lot of those metrics can be boiled down to poor tackling. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 124th in PFF’s Tackling grade.
Marshall vs Louisiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Marshall and Louisiana match up statistically:
Marshall Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 134 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 112 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 80 | |
Louisiana Offense vs. Marshall Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 98 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 23 | 124 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 28 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 18 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (45) | 29.6 (117) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (20) | 54% (55) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Marshall vs Louisiana Prediction
I mentioned at the top how Marshall has been the most profitable team in the country to bet on this season. The Herd are 10-1-1 against the spread and 4-0 ATS as an underdog of at least a field goal.
So, it would be crazy to bet against them. Nearly every week, Marshall seems to be outgained and outplayed but just continues to find ways to win, and most importantly, to cover.
While I think Louisiana is the better team, this is a pretty good matchup for the Thundering Herd. We know Marshall wants to lean on the run with a top-20 Rush Rate and a quarterback who's more effective with his legs than his arm.
Turner and Braxton should have a lot of success on the ground against this Louisiana defense that ranks dead last in the entire country in Rush Success rate allowed. The Ragin’ Cajuns also rank 124th in tackling, and their defense has struggled in the red zone.
Louisiana should also be able to find success on the ground, but its strength has been throwing the ball. It ranks sixth in the country in Pass Success Rate, but now it's without the starting quarterback and facing a terrific secondary that ranks third in the country in PFF Coverage grade.
Expect both teams to try and establish the run and slow the game down.
Marshall should be able to run the ball well here, and if its pass defense can force the Ragin’ Cajuns to be more one-dimensional, the Thundering Herd should be able to keep this close and once again cover the spread.
Pick: Marshall +6
How To Watch Marshall vs Louisiana Game Info
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Marshall takes on Louisiana in the 2024 Sun Belt Championship in Lafayette at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Marshall vs Louisiana Betting Trends To Know
Louisiana vs Marshall Weather
