Maryland vs Indiana Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, September 28

Curt Cignetti tried to tell us that he wins. After starting the year 4-0 at Indiana, he's now 123-35 all-time as a head coach across 14 seasons with four different schools at three different levels.

Not only are the Hoosiers undefeated, they're blasting teams. Indiana has outscored its opponents 202-37. The Hoosiers have a very manageable schedule down the stretch, and it's not out of the realm of possibilities that they can play their way into the Big Ten Championship game.

Maryland finds itself in a bit of a rebuilding season after losing longtime starter Taulia Tagovailoa. The Terrapins got off to a 3-1 start, but their lone loss was to conference foe Michigan State, and the schedule is only going to get tougher from here, starting on Saturday.

That's when the Terps take on the Hoosiers at 12 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network. Indiana is favored by seven points on the spread and is -265 on the moneyline. The total also checks in at 52.5 as of this writing.

So, check out my Maryland vs. Indiana prediction below.

Maryland vs Indiana Prediction

• Maryland vs Indiana Pick: Indiana -6.5
  

My Maryland vs Indiana best bet is on Hoosiers spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Sept. 28

12 p.m. ET

Big Ten Network

Maryland Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7 -110	52.5 -112 / -108	+215

Indiana Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7 -110	52.5 -112 / -108	-265

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Maryland vs Indiana Point Spread: Maryland +7 (-110) · Indiana -7 (-110)
• Maryland vs Indiana Total: Over/Under 52.5
• Maryland vs Indiana Moneyline: Maryland +215 · Indiana -265

Maryland vs Indiana Preview

Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Defense Needs to Improve

Three quarterbacks battled into the fall to replace Tagovailoa and last season’s backup, Billy Edwards Jr., eventually won the job.

He's been efficient so far, completing 75% of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. His 11 big time throws lead the Big Ten and rank third in the country.

It’s pretty obvious who Edwards' favorite target is as senior receiver Tai Felton has already racked up 41 catches for 604 yards and five touchdowns. In fact, he's had a touchdown and over 100 yards in every game this season.

Defensively, Maryland has had mixed results, primarily due to its competition. Sure, it looked great against UConn and Villanova, but the Terrapins didn't look as sharp against Michigan State and Virginia.

That's not a good sign for the Terrapins entering conference play. Michigan State put up 484 yards of offense and averaged 7.0 yards per play against Maryland, which ranks just 67th in rushing success rate and has struggled to create Havoc.

Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Defense Has Been Dominant

While the story of the offseason was all of the James Madison kids following Cignetti to Indiana, the biggest impact has come from grabbing Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke.

The former MAC Player of the Year has been fantastic. Rourke is completing over 75% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

Rourke has four wide receivers with over 10 catches, a group led by JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt.

This team also has five running backs averaging at least 25 years on the ground per game, with Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton serving as the main duo.

Defensively, Indiana's defense has looked like, well, James Madison’s. The Hoosiers brought in Mikail Kamara, James Carpenter and Tyrique Tucker on the defensive line, linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds from Harrisonburg.

Fisher and Walker have been tremendous in the middle and Kamara is dominant up front.

Indiana has yet to allow more than 14 points in a game this season and has held every opponent under 260 yards. The Hoosiers went on the road two weeks ago and completely shut down UCLA. This unit ranks 13th in the country in defensive success rate.

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Maryland vs Indiana

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Indiana match up statistically:

Maryland Offense vs. Indiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	52	24
Line Yards	72	33
Pass Success	27	20
Havoc	68	5
Finishing Drives	33	38
Quality Drives	37	9

Indiana Offense vs. Maryland Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	12	71
Line Yards	28	37
Pass Success	1	57
Havoc	10	110
Finishing Drives	7	27
Quality Drives	5	38

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	78	56
PFF Coverage	86	23
Special Teams SP+	39	6
Middle 8	27	38
Seconds per Play	26.7 (57)	29.4 (106)
Rush Rate	49% (93)	60% (30)

Maryland vs Indiana Pick & Prediction

Indiana is in killer mode on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers have scored at least 30 points in every game and have yet to allow more than 14 points. They're averaging 7.8 yards per play on offense and just 3.7 per play on defense.

They also rank second in the country in offensive success rate and 13th in defensive success rate.

Cignetti assembled essentially a Group of Five All-Star team that's playing every game like it has something to prove.

Neither of these teams have had a true test as each has played three cupcakes and one conference game. The difference is that Maryland played its worst game of the season and was outgained by 145 yards, while Indiana destroyed UCLA on the road in that conference game.

I don't expect Maryland's defense to be able to slow down this offense. The Hoosiers are extremely deep at both receiver and running back, and Rourke is playing excellent football, facilitating this offense and getting the ball to his weapons.

Maryland’s offense has looked fine against inferior opponents, but this is a massive step up. Indiana will be able to take away the running game, and the Terrapins have largely been a one-trick pony with Felton on the outside.

It’s going to take more than that to keep up with this offense, and I expect Cignetti and Indiana to continue to make a statement.

Pick: Indiana -6.5 (Play to -8)

• Maryland is 2-2 in its last four games against the spread.
• The total has gone over in three of Maryland's last four games.
• Indiana is 3-1 in its last four games against the spread.
• The total has gone over in three of Indiana's last four games.