Wisconsin vs Maryland Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | -195 |
Wisconsin welcomes in Maryland as the two programs continue to trend in opposite directions.
It’s been a tough start to the season for Wisconsin fans, as the Badgers are just .500 through the first eight games. The slow start was enough for the program to send head coach Paul Chryst packing.
Jim Leonard has won two of his first three games as interim head coach, but the Badgers are in unfamiliar territory, hoping to just make it to a bowl game this season.
Meanwhile, Maryland is bowl eligible through eight weeks for the first time since 2001. The Terrapins opened the season 4-1, both straight up and against the spread.
Though they’ve won two of their last three matchups, they’ve failed to cover the spread in one-possession victories against Indiana and Northwestern.
The two programs play with opposite playing styles and weather could be a factor to consider in this matchup.
Wisconsin enters this matchup fresh off of a well-needed bye week. The Badgers have been hit-or-miss this season.
The program's four victories have all been by double-digits by an average margin of 36 points. But those wins have come against Illinois State, New Mexico State, Northwestern and Purdue.
As the competition has stiffened, the Wisconsin program hasn’t answered the call. Its four losses have come to Washington State, Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan State.
The Badgers are still reliant on their old-school mentality of a run-heavy offensive attack. The group owns a Rush Rate of 60% and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Running back Braelon Allen has been the engine of the offense, averaging 109 rushing yards per game. The sophomore has been given a heavy workload, averaging 5.8 yards per carry while finding pay dirt nine times this year.
Graham Mertz still hasn’t progressed as a passer during his time under center. He’s averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt and has tossed 17 touchdowns on the season.
But the junior quarterback has been plagued by untimely interceptions in five of his eight starts this year.
The Badgers have been strong at Finishing Drives this season, ranking second in the nation, but Maryland’s defense ranks 22nd in the same category.
Maryland enters this matchup third in the Big Ten in scoring, putting up 34 points per game, which is only behind Ohio State and Michigan.
The Terrapins own a well-balanced offense that features a Rush Rate of 50%. The ground game is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, which ranks 23rd in the nation.
The offensive line has been the unsung hero for this group, as it ranks 20th in both Line Yards and Pass Blocking.
Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has improved leaps and bounds this season, as he is averaging 286 passing yards per game. Tagovailoa has tossed 13 touchdowns and has averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while completing 73% of his passes.
Tagovailoa was held out of last week's matchup against Northwestern after irritating his previously injured knee, but reports indicate that Tagovailoa will be ready to go for this matchup against Wisconsin.
The defensive front will be pivotal in this matchup against the Badgers. The group has been solid to date, allowing 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks 22nd nationally.
However, this will be the first true test, as they haven’t matched up against a ground game of Wisconsin’s caliber to date.
Wisconsin vs Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Maryland match up statistically:
Maryland Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 45 |  |
| Line Yards | 20 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 83 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 20 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 60 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wisconsin Offense vs. Maryland Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 82 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 84 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 26 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 27 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 67 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 29 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 22 | 86 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (68) | 30.0 (125) |
| Rush Rate | 49.6% (86) | 59.8% (23) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wisconsin vs Maryland Betting Pick
This is an intriguing matchup between two opposite playing styles.
Wisconsin will lean on Allen and look to find success with the ground game. But Maryland has been strong this season defending the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.
If the Wisconsin ground game isn’t working, do we trust Mertz to carry this offense to victory?
Illinois held Wisconsin to only two rushing yards on 24 attempts, and the Badgers lost that game 34-10 as Mertz threw two interceptions.
Maryland’s offense is going to find success through the air against the Wisconsin defense. The Badgers are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, as Northwestern, Michigan State and Purdue averaged 291 passing yards the last three weeks.
With a healthy Tagovailoa, I anticipate that trend to continue.
Pick: Maryland +5 (Play to +4) |
