In the new 12-team College Football Playoff, the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion will receive an automatic bid on Sunday, Dec. 8.
Six days later, Army and Navy will play their annual game. The winner may win the Commander-in-Chief trophy, but the loser may advance to the College Football Playoff.
Confused? Welcome to the ultimate fly-in-the-ointment scenario CFP officials are privately fearing. With Army and Navy both off to 4-0 starts, there’s a realistic chance it could happen.
Here’s how:
Army and Navy, based on Action Network’s betting power ratings, are both projected to be favored in all of their remaining AAC games. They also each have nonconference games against Notre Dame, where they would be prohibitive underdogs.
So, both teams could finish 10-1 with either school or both advancing to the AAC Championship game on Dec. 6. If Army or Navy wins the AAC title, it would be in contention for the Group of Five’s playoff berth — especially at 11-1 — and would be a lock at 12-0 with a win vs. Notre Dame.
The College Football Playoff field then would be announced Dec. 8.
Here’s the nightmare scenario for the CFP: Army or Navy wins the AAC and qualifies for the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion — and then loses Dec. 14 in the Army-Navy game.
Even though the military academy AAC champion would have lost on Dec. 14, that game will not be considered by the selection committee. In other words, an Army or Navy AAC champion that lost to its rival a week later would not be punished for losing its final game and would remain in the playoff.
It would have huge implications because another Group of Five champion could have been finished above the AAC champion/Army-Navy loser — if — key word is "if’" – the committee considered the Dec. 14 Army-Navy contest.
So, why did the CFP agree to allow the final Army-Navy game not to be included in the selection committee rankings?
“Basically the [conference] commissioners don’t push back on anything regarding Army and Navy, because they don’t want to get dragged before Congress,” a source said.
If Army or Navy does earn a bid to the College Football Playoff, that team will be playing its third game in as many weeks, while every other playoff team will have had at least one week off since Dec. 6-7.
The playoff’s first round is Dec. 20 or 21. Army or Navy would most likely get the No. 12 seed and play on the road at the No. 5 seed, likely the second-best team from the SEC or Big Ten. They are projected to be nearly four-touchdown underdogs.
It’s a scenario the CFP hopes doesn’t happen, but all of America would love to see.
Never Trail, Never Fail 👑
Four teams have yet to trail in a game this season. Two won’t be a surprise — they rank in the top five of this week’s AP Top 25 rankings. The third team? Hint, they’re from the Big Ten. No, not that one.
The fourth team is unranked. Here are the fab four that have never trailed:
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 4 Tennessee
- No. 23 Indiana
- Unranked Army
Of the foursome, here is the percentage of their games in which they have led and been tied:
| School | Leading | Tied |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 88.0% | 12% |
| Tennessee | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| Texas | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| Indiana | 82.7% | 17.3% |
Five 5-0s 5️⃣-0️⃣
After the season’s first month, there are still 19 unbeaten teams remaining: five teams are 5-0, while 14 teams are 4-0.
For the second consecutive season, Texas is off to a 5-0 start. Of the 4-0 teams, James Madison, Liberty, Missouri, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are all off to 4-0 starts for a second consecutive season.
Penn State is 4-0 for the fourth consecutive season — the only FBS team that can make that claim.
A look at the 5-0 schools and the last time they started 5-0 and how they finished in final AP Poll.
| Year | School | Record & Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Texas | Finished 12-2, No. 3 |
| 2021 | BYU | Finished 10-3, No. 19 |
| 2017 | Miami | Finished 10-3, No. 13 |
| 1994 | Duke | Finished 8-4, unranked |
| 1967 | Indiana | Finished 9-2, No. 4 |
Creatures of the Night 🌙
BYU’s win at Baylor last week ended one of college football’s stranger streaks. The Cougars had lost 10 consecutive games against FBS opponents with a daytime start until Saturday’s win over Baylor.
BYU has been Jekyll and Hyde in day and night games. Since 2019, against FBS foes, BYU is 10-14 in day games and 28-3 in night games.
The Cougars are off this week. Kickoffs for their next two games, both at home, have been announced (one daytime, one nighttime):
- Oct. 12 vs. Arizona, 2 p.m. MDT
- Oct. 18 vs. Oklahoma State, 8:15 p.m. MDT.
