College basketball’s madness is officially in March, but college football’s November is going to be nuts.
With five regular-season weekends remaining, it’s the stretch run for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Each Monday, I provide my playoff and bowl projections. And now for something completely different.
I have two sets of projections for the current Top 25 teams: one based on every favorite winning their remaining games and the other based on every home team winning their remaining games (as long as they are a 10-point underdog or better).
Here are two different projected playoff fields: The Chalk model and The Crazy Chaos model.
The first: The Chalk. Very simple, the favorites — based on Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings — win every remaining game, including the projected conference title games. This, of course, will never happen, but play along.
Final Records
- 13-0: Iowa State, Miami, Oregon
- 12-1: Army, Boise State, BYU, Georgia
- 11-2: Clemson, Ohio State, Texas
- 11-1: Indiana, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Penn State, SMU
- 10-2: LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
- 9-3: Alabama, Pitt
“The Chalk” Playoff Projected Seedings
- Georgia (12-1, SEC champ)
- Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champ)
- Miami (13-0, ACC champ)
- Iowa State (13-0, Big 12 champ)
- Ohio State (11-2, Big Ten runner-up)
- Texas (11-2, SEC runner-up)
- Notre Dame (11-1)
- Texas A&M (10-2)
- LSU (10-2)
- Tennessee (10-2)
- BYU (12-1, Big 12 runner-up)
- Boise State (12-1, Group of 5 champ)
What in the world am I thinking?
I have Georgia as the No. 1 seed over Oregon because in this scenariom the Bulldogs would be 5-1 against Top 25 teams compared to Oregon’s 2-0 record vs. Top 20 teams (both wins vs. Ohio State).
I think the committee would give Georgia the No. 1 seed because of a much tougher overall schedule than Oregon, despite the Ducks undefeated record.
Another tough call is projecting the final at-large spot between Big 12 runner-up BYU (12-1), ACC runner-up Clemson (11-2), Indiana (11-1) and SMU (11-1).
BYU gets the nod because the Cougars would be 1-1 vs. Top 25 teams (beating SMU, losing to Iowa State), while Clemson would be 0-2 vs. Top 25 (losses to Georgia and Miami).
Also, Kansas State (0-1 vs. Top 25) and Indiana (0-1 vs. Top 25) would miss out in this scenario.
Now the really whacked-out one: Crazy Chaos.
In this scenario, I’m projecting the selection committee’s rankings based on every home team winning the remaining regular season games (as long as each home team is favored or an underdog of 10 points or less).
This, of course, likely won’t happen either, but if it does … oh my.
Final Records
- 13-0: Miami, Oregon
- 12-1: Army, Boise State, Iowa State, Penn State
- 11-2: BYU, Georgia
- 10-3: SMU
- 10-2: Kansas State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pitt, Texas
- 9-4: Texas A&M
- 9-3: Clemson, LSU, Tennessee
- 8-4: Alabama
“The Crazy Chaos” Playoff Projected Seedings:
- Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champ)
- Miami (13-0, ACC champ)
- Georgia (11-2, SEC champ)
- Iowa State (12-1, Big 12 champ)
- Penn State (12-1, Big Ten runner-up)
- Texas A&M (9-4, SEC runner-up)
- LSU (9-3)
- Notre Dame (10-2)
- Texas (10-2)
- Indiana (10-2)
- Ohio State (10-2)
- Boise State (12-1, Group of 5 champ)
What in the world am I thinking?
Only two teams ranked in the top 20 avoid upsets in the final five weeks: Miami and Oregon. Basically everyone else — pardon my French — beats the hell out of each other.
In this scenario, teams that are favored on the road in November and lose include: Alabama at Oklahoma; BYU at Utah; Clemson at Virginia Tech; Clemson at Pitt; Georgia at Ole Miss; Iowa State at Kansas; LSU at Florida; Notre Dame at USC; Ohio State at Penn State; Pitt at Louisville; SMU at Virginia; Tennessee at Vanderbilt; Texas at Arkansas; Texas at Texas A&M; Texas A&M at South Carolina and Texas A&M at Auburn.
Will all of the favored road teams above lose? Absolutely not, but it would be pretty cool if they did. Some will. The question is, how many ultimately lose will determine what the inaugural 12-team playoff field will look like.
In this scenario, it would leave the committee to select eight at-large teams among 13 teams with between two and four losses. Good luck with that.
Talking About The 'Noles 🏹
Florida State’s loss to Miami on Saturday clinched a losing season for the Seminoles (1-7).
In doing so, FSU became the 14th school since 2009 to have a losing record a year after finishing in the AP Top 10 (excluding the 2020 COVID season).
The list of teams that went from the top 10 to below .500 in one year:
| Team | Following Record |
|---|---|
| No. 6 Florida State (2023) | 1-7 in 2024 |
| No. 2 TCU (2022) | 5-7 in 2023 |
| No. 5 Baylor (2021) | 6-7 in 2022 |
| No. 9 Michigan State (2021) | 5-7 in 2022 |
| No. 10 Northwestern (2020) | 3-9 in 2021 |
| No. 10 Washington State (2018) | 6-7 in 2019 |
| No. 6 Michigan State (2015) | 3-9 in 2016 |
| No. 7 TCU (2015) | 6-7 in 2016 |
| No. 8 Georgia Tech (2014) | 3-9 in 2015 |
| No. 9 Florida (2012) | 4-8 in 2013 |
| No. 5 Arkansas (2011) | 4-8 in 2012 |
| No. 5 Ohio State (2010) | 6-7 in 2011 |
| No. 2 Texas (2009) | 5-7 in 2010 |
| No. 8 Cincinnati (2009) | 4-8 in 2010 |
Dream Bowl Projection of the Week 😋
Las Vegas Bowl (Colorado vs. Ole Miss)
Now that Colorado has clinched its first bowl berth since 2020, it’s just a question of which bowl will the Buffs play in. How about Vegas, baby?
With Heisman contender WR/CB Travis Hunter — yes, he should win it — QB Shadeur Sanders and coach Deion Sanders, the Buffs will draw a ton of eyeballs — especially if Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are on the opposite sideline.
The sound bytes from the two coaches leading up to kickoff will only be surpassed by the number of points. Count me in.
Sandwich Spot 🥪
These are the games that fit my non-scientific model of teams that might be in a challenging schedule or motivational situation.
Each Sunday, I’ll put my Sandwich Spot plays in early in the Action Network App — download here for free. All lines are from Sunday.
UMass +22.5 at Mississippi State
Duke +20.5 at Miami
Arkansas +8 vs. Ole Miss
Indiana -7.5 at Michigan State
Baylor -2.5 vs. TCU
Don’t let me get hot! I’m now 7-2 in my last nine picks. Five games fit the criteria this week, including UMass' as a long-awaited breather for Mississippi State, which is coming off a stretch of Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M and Arkansas.
The Bulldogs should win but not by more than three touchdowns.
Also, Florida State plays Duke after facing rival Miami; Ole Miss, off LSU and Oklahoma, has Georgia on deck, and Indiana and Baylor also are in good scheduling spots.
Season Record: 11-7
