On Monday, news broke that Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will no longer take live calls on his weekly radio show. Hopefully, the Tigers can end something else: their failure to live up to preseason expectations.
Clemson is the nation’s only school that has been ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 in each of the last five years to finish the season ranked lower than its preseason ranking.
It didn’t help that Clemson started 2019 and 2020 ranked No. 1 but failed to win the national title.
Even with its recent failures to match its preseason rankings, Clemson still is not close to being the nation’s most overrated team during the College Football Playoff era. That “honor” goes to another group of Tigers — from Auburn.
Since 2014, the beginning of the College Football Playoff era, Auburn is the nation’s most overrated team when comparing its preseason AP ranking to its final ranking.
Following Auburn as the most overrated — hang the banner! — since 2014 are USC, Wisconsin, Texas A&M and LSU. Rounding out the top 10 are Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Miami and Florida State.
There’s one key component to be among the nation’s most overrated: that is, obviously, to be ranked in the preseason.
The No. 2 most overrated team, USC, has been ranked since 2014 in the preseason nine times but finished lower in the final poll seven times.
Wisconsin, the third-most overrated team, has been ranked in the preseason poll in each of the past seven years. In five of the last six years, the Badgers finished the season outside of the Top 25.
The good news for the Badgers? They're not ranked in this year’s preseason poll, and the last time they started the year unranked in 2016, they finished No. 9 in the final poll.
And how could I be dissecting the nation’s most overrated teams and not have brought up Texas by now? Hey, like Florida State, I’m still shaking off the early-season cobwebs.
Is Texas really back? Maybe so. Last year’s playoff appearance ended the Longhorns’ four-year streak of finishing worse in the final poll compared to their preseason ranking.
Onto the entire Top 25 overrated teams since 2014 based on their preseason AP ranking and final ranking.
How were the most overrated and underrated teams determined? Each season, teams would get positive or negative points for each position they finished above or below their preseason ranking in final poll. Teams with the most positive points since 2014 were underrated; teams with most negative points were overrated.
Most Overrated NCAAF Teams Based on Preseason Rankings
1
Auburn Tigers
2
USC Trojans
3
Wisconsin Badgers
4
Texas A&M
5
LSU Tigers
6
Texas Longhorns
7
Oregon Ducks
8
Oklahoma Sooners
9
Miami Hurricanes
10
Florida State Seminoles
11
Clemson Tigers
12
Stanford Cardinal
13
Michigan State Spartans
14
Georgia Bulldogs
15
UCLA Bruins
16
South Carolina Gamecocks
17
Alabama Crimson Tide
17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
19
North Carolina Tar Heels
19
Ohio State Buckeyes
19
Washington Huskies
22
Iowa State Cyclones
23
Nebraska Cornhuskers
24
Arkansas Razorbacks
24
Michigan Wolverines
Enough with the overrated teams. How about some love for the underrated over-achievers? Again, it helps to be underrated if a team is rarely ranked in the preseason.
Northwestern is the nation’s No. 1 underrated team in the College Football Playoff era.
Since 2014, the Wildcats were never ranked in the preseason but finished in the Top 25 four years under former coach Pat Fitzgerald.
After Northwestern, Cincinnati is the nation’s second-most underrated team, followed by TCU, Missouri, Kentucky and UCF. There’s a four-team logjam tied for seventh between Arizona, Houston, Louisville and Oklahoma State.
Six of the nation’s 10 most underrated teams since 2014 are currently in the Big 12.
Here's the entire list of the top 25 underrated teams since 2014 based on their preseason AP ranking and final ranking:
Most Underrated NCAAF Teams Based on Preseason Rankings
1
Northwestern Wildcats
2
Cincinnati Bearcats
3
TCU Horned Frogs
4
Missouri Tigers
5
Kentucky Wildcats
6
UCF Knights
7
Arizona Wildcats
7
Houston Cougars
7
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
7
Oklahoma State Cowboys
11
Tulane Green Wave
12
Navy Midshipmen
12
West Virginia Mountaineers
14
Mississippi State Bulldogs
15
Kansas State Wildcats
16
Coastal Carolina
17
Minnesota Golden Gophers
17
Syracuse Orange
17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
17
Western Michigan Broncos
21
Fresno State Bulldogs
21
Iowa Hawkeyes
21
Liberty Flames
24
Colorado Buffaloes
24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
24
Indiana Hoosiers
24
Washington State Cougars
(Getting) Murdered Row
When the SEC and Big Ten announced they were expanding, television executives began salivating. Sources say they still haven’t stopped.
They’re eagerly awaiting the unprecedented number of big-brand matchups between ranked teams and all the riches it will bring them. Cue the Scrooge McDuck gif.
However, these bloated conferences have made for some — let’s just call it — challenging schedules.
There are 12 teams, including 11 from the SEC or Big Ten, that will play at least three consecutive games against preseason AP Top 25 teams. Of the 12 teams, only two — No. 5 Alabama and No. 16 Oklahoma — are also ranked.
The other 10 are just hoping not to get (choose your favorite adjective or come up with your own) pummeled, seal-clubbed or bludgeoned to death.
Florida ends the season with five consecutive preseason ranked opponents, while Mississippi State has two separate stretches of three ranked opponents. In an eight-game stretch, the Bulldogs will play six teams in the preseason Top 25. Welcome to the SEC, Jeff Lebby.
Please give your thoughts and prayers to these 12 teams:
Florida Gators
- vs. No. 1 Georgia (in Jacksonville), Nov. 2
- at No. 4 Texas, Nov. 9
- vs. No. 13 LSU, Nov. 16
- vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, Nov. 23
- at No. 10 Florida State, Nov. 30
Michigan State Spartans
- vs. No. 2 Ohio State, Sept. 28
- at No. 3 Oregon, Oct. 5
- vs. No. 25 Iowa, Oct. 19
- at No. 9 Michigan, Oct. 26
South Carolina Gamecocks
- vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, Oct. 5
- at No. 5 Alabama, Oct. 12
- at No. 16 Oklahoma, Oct. 19
- vs. No. 20 Texas A&M, Nov. 2
Houston Cougars
- at No. 22 Kansas, Oct. 19
- vs. No. 12 Utah, Oct. 26
- vs. No. 18 Kansas State, Nov. 2
- at No. 21 Arizona, Nov. 15
Alabama Crimson Tide
- at No. 15 Tennessee, Oct. 19
- vs. No. 11 Missouri, Oct. 26
- at No. 13 LSU, Nov. 9
Arkansas Razorbacks
- vs. No. 20 Texas A&M (in Arlington), Sept. 28
- vs. No. 15 Tennessee, Oct. 5
- vs. No. 13 LSU, Oct. 19
Auburn Tigers
- vs. No. 16 Oklahoma, Sept. 28
- at No. 1 Georgia, Oct. 5
- No. 11 Missouri, Oct. 19
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- at No. 4 Texas, Sept. 28
- at No. 1 Georgia, Oct. 12
- vs. No. 20 Texas A&M, Oct. 19
Two weeks later…
- at No. 15 Tennessee, Nov. 9
- vs. No. 11 Missouri, Nov. 23
- at No. 5 Ole Miss, Nov. 30
Minnesota Golden Gophers
- vs. No. 25 Iowa, Sept. 21
- at No. 9 Michigan, Sept. 28
- vs. No. 23 USC, Oct. 5
Oklahoma Sooners
- at No. 11 Missouri, Nov. 9
- vs. No. 5 Alabama, Nov. 23
- at No. 13 LSU, Nov. 30
UCLA Bruins
- at No. 13 LSU, Sept. 21
- vs. No. 3 Oregon, Sept. 28
- at No. 8 Penn State, Oct. 5
Wisconsin Badgers
- vs. No. 8 Penn State, Oct. 26
- at No. 25 Iowa, Nov. 2
- vs. No. 3 Oregon, Nov. 16
Moneyball, 2024
Just last year, New Mexico State received $1.85 million to visit Auburn and then abruptly upset the Tigers.
This year, Auburn is paying another school from The Land of Enchantment — this time the New Mexico Lobos — $1.9 million to play at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That amount ties as the biggest payday for a visiting team, along with Georgia and Alabama.
Here’s a look at the highest amounts paid to visiting teams this season:
- Alabama: $1.9 million to Western Kentucky, Aug. 31
- Auburn: $1.9 million to New Mexico, Sept. 14
- Georgia: $1.9 million to UMass, Nov. 23
- Michigan: $1.85 million to Fresno State, Aug. 31
- Michigan: $1.8 million to Arkansas State, Sept. 14
- Ohio State: $1.8 million to Akron, Aug. 31
- Ohio State: $1.8 million to Western Michigan, Sept. 7
- Texas: $1.8 million to Colorado State, Aug. 31
- Texas: $1.7 million* to UTSA, Sept. 14
- LSU: $1.65 million to South Alabama, Sept. 28
- Nebraska: $1.65 million to UTEP, Aug. 31
- Ohio State: $1.6 million to Marshall, Sept. 21
- Ole Miss: $1.6 million to Middle Tennessee, Sept. 7
- Texas A&M: $1.6 million to Bowling Green, Sept. 21
*Texas is in second year of five-game series with UTSA, with an average payout of $1.7 million per game
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