As college football hits the midway point of the regular season, there remain 14 undefeated teams.
Those include Air Force, Florida State, Georgia, James Madison, Liberty, Louisville, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, USC and Washington.
Of the 14, only 13 are eligible for the College Football Playoff. James Madison is ineligible because it’s in its second year transitioning to FBS. With the remaining schedules, it's mathematically possible we could end up with a maximum of eight 12-0 teams entering conference championship week.
There could be three unbeatens from the ACC since FSU, Louisville and UNC don’t play each other, but the remaining conferences can only have one unbeaten.
The Great Eight: Air Force from the Mountain West, Liberty from Conference USA, Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina from the ACC, Oklahoma from the Big 12 and one team each from the Big Ten (Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State) and Pac-12 (Oregon, USC and Washington).
Of course, knowing how chaotic college football is, we could end up with no unbeatens. While it’s mathematically possible, there’s no way we will have eight undefeated teams entering December.
Here are the percentages of each team's chances to finish 12-0 based on the projected point spreads by Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson for their remaining games, including their toughest remaining game.
- Georgia, 91%. Toughest test: at Tennessee
- Oklahoma, 87%. Toughest test: at Kansas
- Florida State, 82%. Toughest test: at Florida
- Penn State, 82%. Toughest test: at Ohio State
- Michigan, 81%. Toughest test: at Penn State
- Ohio State, 79%. Toughest test: at Michigan
- Air Force, 78%. Toughest test: at Boise State
- Washington, 77%. Toughest test: at USC
- Liberty, 77%. Toughest test: at Western Kentucky
- UNC, 75%. Toughest test: at Clemson
- Oregon, 74%. Toughest test: at Washington
- USC, 73%. Toughest test: at Oregon
- Louisville, 67%. Toughest test: at Miami
What the Hell is Going On? 🤷🏻♂️
Alabama defensive coordinator Kevin Steele should have been celebrating Saturday night after the Tide’s win at Texas A&M. But he likely wasn’t. He probably was having nightmares — or at least horrific flashbacks to 1999.
That’s because before there was Mario Cristobal’s "late-game no-kneel gaffe” against Georgia Tech, there was Steele’s equally dumb decision 24 years earlier.
In Steele’s second game of his first year as Baylor’s head coach, Baylor led UNLV, 24-21, on UNLV’s 8-yard line in the final seconds. The Rebels had no timeouts remaining.
Instead of taking a knee to end the game, Baylor running back Darrell Bush took a handoff with eight seconds left. As Bush neared the goal line, UNLV linebacker Tyler Brickell forced a fumble, and cornerback Kevin Thomas scooped the ball up a yard deep in the end zone and raced 101 yards for the touchdown. Final: UNLV 27, Baylor 24.
The biggest difference: Steele’s brain fart wasn’t nationally televised. It wasn’t even on local TV, although there is a YouTube clip online for your viewing pleasure.
Afterward, Steele — like Cristobal — acknowledged he should have taken a knee.
“Hindsight is 20-20, and I know what the textbook says,” Steele said after the loss in 1999. “There’s no defense for it. It was just stupid on my part. We were trying to create an attitude of toughness and we tried to hammer it in. It was a one-in-a-million play for something like that to happen.”
Well, make that two-in-a million after Miami’s un-knee-lievable loss.
Then UNLV coach John Robinson said after Steele’s decision to try to score: “That should be the film clip for every coach to remind you not to screw it up.”
After that 1999 loss, Steele said the play “will go down in history as one of the great, ‘Why did you do it?’ questions.” He was right. Until Cristobal’s decisions while at Oregon in 2018 in a similar situation vs. Stanford and Saturday vs. Georgia Tech.
Alabama assistant coaches are unavailable to the media during the season, so it will be a while before anyone can ask Steele what he thought about the Miami ending.
But how’s this for some weird cosmic stuff: Before this season Saban hired Steele from — you guessed it — Miami. If Saban had gone in another direction and Steele remained at Miami, Steele would have been on the losing end of two last-second “one-in-a-million” plays.
Stat of the Week 📈
How difficult is it to score 10 points? Not so hard, right? But in every single game since 2014? Nearly impossible — unless you’re coached by Nick Saban.
Since 2014, the first season of the College Football Playoff, Alabama is the nation’s only team that has scored at least 10 points in every game. There are five schools that have scored at least 10 points in all but one game in that span.
The top six programs with the highest percentage of games scoring at least 10 points since 2014:
- Alabama, 133-of-133 games (100%)
- Appalachian State, 121-of-122 (99.18%)
- Ohio State, 121-of-122 (99.18%)
- Boise State, 119-of-120 (99.16%)
- Houston, 116-of-117 (99.14%)
- Michigan, 116-of-117 (99.14%)
Dream Bowl Projection of the Week 😋
With two losses already, Clemson will miss the playoff for a third consecutive season and will be headed to a non-playoff bowl. So, let’s make the best of the situation: how about a reunion between Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei, who started 28 games at Clemson before transferring to Oregon State?
There’s a very real chance it could happen if the Beavers (5-1) don’t make a New Year’s 6 bowl. The Holiday Bowl is one of only two Pac-12 vs. ACC bowls. The DJ Bowl in San Diego? Yes, I’ll take it.
TV Eyeball Watch 📺👀
After five games, someone finally found a way to stop the Colorado Buffaloes’ record television ratings: put them on the Pac-12 Network.
For the first time this season, Colorado was not involved in the most-watched or second-most-watched game of the week.
Colorado’s win at Arizona State Saturday was on the Pac-12 Network, which is not Nielsen-rated, so the game viewing numbers will remain a mystery.
Even so, Colorado-ASU wouldn’t have topped the Texas 2-step. Texas vs. Oklahoma and Texas A&M vs. Alabama were involved in the highest-rated games, according to SportsMediaWatch. I guess everything really is bigger in Texas.
Last week’s top five (all times ET):
- Oklahoma vs. Texas, 7.87 million (ABC/ESPN2, noon)
- Alabama at Texas A&M, 7.23 million (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
- Notre Dame at Louisville, 5.12 million (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
- Maryland at Ohio State, 4.51 million (FOX, noon)
- Kentucky at Georgia, 3.19 million (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover 🏈
The good: When you’re hot, you’re scorching. Oklahoma not only upset Texas last week, but — more importantly to some (you know who you are) — the Sooners improved to a perfect 6-0 against the spread.
OU is off this week, so you’ll have to wait until Oct. 21 vs. UCF for your next chance to back the Sooners.
Penn State, Oregon and UNLV are each 5-0 against the spread, so they can match the Sooners’ 6-0 start this week. Also, Rutgers is 5-0-1
The bad: Illinois is 0-6 against the spread. But the ugliest team remains Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 0-7 against the spread, although they have come close to covering the past two games in losing efforts.
Maybe Significant (Or Not) 5️⃣
So far this season, Associated Press top-five ranked teams are 25-3 straight up but only 10-16-2 against the spread (38%). Will that continue deeper into the season? It could be something to keep an eye on.
Here’s this week’s games involving top-five teams:
- No. 1 Georgia (-31.5) at Vanderbilt
- No. 2 Michigan (-34) vs. Indiana
- No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue
- No. 4 Florida State (-17.5) vs. Syracuse
- No. 5 Oklahoma (Bye)
100% Guaranteed Pick* 💸
*Will Likely Lose 50% of the Time
Indiana +34 at Michigan
Based on the numbers above regarding top five programs covering at just a 38% rate, I’ll hold my nose and take Indiana +34.
Michigan has hated rival Michigan State up next week, so the Wolverines might be peeking ahead to Sparty. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are coming off a bye and playing their first game since replacing offensive coordinator Walt Bell with Rod Carey.
Season Record: 3-3
