So, how did you spend your Tuesday night? Just what I thought: watching MACtion and digesting the first College Football Playoff rankings.
What did the initial rankings reveal? Not a lot, since we have a month left in the regular season and the committee can — and will — move teams up and down in the next few weeks, regardless of whether they won or lost.
A few thoughts:
The Big 12 is Screwed
The Big 12 champion will be part of the 12-team playoff. That much is certain. But if Boise State wins out and BYU doesn’t finish 13-0 as the Big 12 champ, the Big 12 champion will not earn a first-round bye.
That’s because Big 12 leader BYU (8-0) was ranked No. 9, but only three spots ahead of No. 12 Boise State (7-1), the Mountain West favorite. A 12-1 Boise State/Mountain West champ will likely finish higher than any one-loss Big 12 champ.
That would give Boise State, no matter what it ranks in the final poll, at worst the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye.
While BYU must win out to earn the Big 12 a first-round bye, the chances are slim that the Big 12 will have a second team ranked high enough in the final poll to earn a second bid.
No. 17 Iowa State, No. 19 Kansas State and No. 20 Colorado are all within striking distance of getting into at-large contention, but if any of those teams don’t win out, they will shuffle back down the rankings.
If one of them wins out and wins the Big 12 title, it’s unknown if they would leapfrog 12-1 Boise State and also likely would knock BYU out of the running for an at-large spot.
ACC’s Path to Multiple Bids
While the Big 12 is a long shot to get two bids, the ACC is in a much better position.
With No. 4 Miami and No. 13 SMU, if SMU defeats Miami in the ACC title game, SMU would get the automatic bid and Miami would likely still receive an at-large bid.
Where it could get tricky is if Miami wins out, beating SMU in the ACC title game. Would the Mustangs have climbed into the top 11 or 12 before the ACC title game, and how much would they fall with a loss to Miami?
No. 1 Curse?
Oregon earned the first No. 1 ranking in the 12-team playoff history. The Ducks are a virtual lock to earn a playoff berth, but what about winning the national title? Not as promising.
In the 10 seasons of the four-team playoff, only Georgia in 2021 and Alabama in 2020 were ranked No. 1 in the initial ranking and also won the national title.
Maybe Stop Bashing the AP Poll?
A lot of the buildup to Tuesday’s initial selection committee rankings was “this isn’t the AP Poll” and what major differences the committee would have compared to the AP Poll.
Well, guess what? The top 17 in the selection committee’s rankings were nearly identical to this week’s AP poll.
The only difference was the selection committee’s rankings of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgia (AP had No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Ohio State) and No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 15 LSU (AP had No. 14 LSU, No. 15 A&M).
The remaining 13 teams in the top 17 were all ranked in the same spots.
Until next week.
Good Ride, Cowboy 🤠
Unless Oklahoma State (3-6) wins its final three games and a bowl game, an impressive streak by Mike Gundy will end. Gundy has had 18 consecutive winning seasons with the Cowboys, tied for the eighth-longest streak for a coach at one school.
After Nick Saban retired last season with 17 straight winning seasons at Alabama, Gundy is the only active coach among the top 13 coaches.
The most consecutive winning seasons at one school in NCAA history:
| Seasons | Coach |
|---|---|
| 33 | Bobby Bowden, FSU (1977-2009) |
| 25 | Bear Bryant, Alabama (1958-82) |
| 25 | Tom Osborne, Nebraska (1973-97) |
| 23 | Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech (1993-2015 |
| 21 | Joe Paterno, Penn State (1967-87) |
| 19 | Lavell Edwards, BYU (1974-92) |
| 19 | Darrell Royal, Texas (1957-75) |
| 18 | Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State (2006-23)* |
| 18 | Bob Stoops, Oklahoma (1999-2016) |
| 18 | Fielding Yost, Michigan (1901-18) |
| 17 | Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23) |
| 16 | Don James, Washington (1977-92) |
| 16 | Barry Switzer, Oklahoma (1973-88) |
*Active streak
Atomic (SEC Double-Digit Under) Dog 🐶
So far this season, in SEC league play, double-digit underdogs are a remarkable 15-2 against the spread. This week, Florida (at Texas) and Mississippi State (at Tennessee) are both at least three-TD underdogs.
Of the 17 double-digit underdogs in SEC games, three won outright:
- Vanderbilt +12.5 defeated Kentucky (20-13)
- Vanderbilt +23.5 defeated Alabama (40-35)
- Kentucky +15 defeated Ole Miss (20-15)
Overall, SEC underdogs in league play are 28-14 against the spread (66.7%).
Sandwich Spot 🥪
These are the games that fit my non-scientific model of teams that might be in a challenging schedule or motivational situation. Each Sunday, I’ll put my Sandwich Spot plays in early in the Action Network App — download here for free. All lines are from Sunday.
Vanderbilt +3.5 vs. South Carolina
A lackluster 2-3 record last week, drops me to 9-5 in my last 14. Onto this week, where only one game fits our requirements.
Vanderbilt, off a bowl-clinching win against Auburn, faces a South Carolina team off a rush-the-field upset of nationally-ranked Texas A&M (plus having played ranked teams in three of the last four weeks).
Next up for the Gamecocks is nationally-ranked Vanderbilt. Technically, Vanderbilt is ranked in the AP Poll, but this is a huge flat spot for South Carolina.
Season Record: 13-10
