The Florida State Seminoles couldn't have scripted a worse start to their season. The Noles are coming off a bye 0-2, with both losses coming as double-digit favorites.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Tigers are 2-0 and have a mission to snag the Group-of-5 CFP birth in December. The Seminoles are 6.5-point favorites at home, but the dogs are barking in Tallahassee.
Remarkably, the Seminoles were deemed a National Championship contender entering the season, but they would presumably need to win out or win the ACC title game to make the playoff.
Oddsmakers have set the total at 52 for Saturday's non-conference contest. Here's my Memphis vs Florida State prediction and pick.
Memphis vs. Florida State Odds, Spread
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -267 |
- Point Spread: Memphis +6.5 · Florida State -6.5
- Total: Over/Under 54 Total Points
- Moneyline: Memphis ML +215 · Florida State ML -267
Memphis vs. Florida State Pick
- Prediction: Memphis +6.5
Start Time & How to Watch Memphis vs. Florida State
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Memphis Football vs. Florida State Football
Memphis Tigers Preview: Defense Has Surprised
The Tigers are off to a blazing 2-0 start, completely dominating in their first two victories. They have yet to play a conference opponent, but it's clear why the Tigers entered the season as a favorite to win the AAC.
RB Mario Anderson Jr. is looking like Tony Pollard on the ground as he ripped off 17 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns last week against Troy. His terrific ground-and-pound ability has added a lot of balance to an explosive Tigers offense.
QB Seth Henigan entered the season with high expectations, but he's met them thus far. The matchup against the Noles is a terrific test and a great measuring stick game to determine if he's the big-time quarterback that the program envisioned he could be.
Statistically, the Tigers have vital metrics on both sides of the ball through two games. They're +2.94 YPP, which is 11th in the country.
The offense is top-40 in EPA/rush, available yards and third-down success. The Noles' defense looks like a mess, so the Tigers have a golden opportunity to capitalize against a struggling unit.
Many thought the Tigers' offense would be explosive, but their defense has stepped up thus far. Perhaps we should pump the breaks a bit, considering their two wins are against Northern Alabama and Troy, but the unit still holds impressive metrics.
The Tigers' defense is eighth in early-down EPA/play allowed, whereas the Noles' offense is 102nd. The Tigers are doing a terrific job of forcing their opponent into challenging third-down situations, which bodes well against an offense that's yet to show any signs of explosiveness.
The defense is also in the top 35 in EPA/play and rush.
Both sides of the ball draw incredible matchups, so I expect the Tigers to have a chance to pull off the upset.
Florida State Seminoles Preview: Bad to Worse for Noles
It's funny how quickly the tide can turn as the Noles' season appears to be over after three weeks. Things could change, but a team with such high expectations entering the season couldn't afford to lose back-to-back games, especially as double-digit favorites in the first two matchups.
Everybody loves to point fingers when the season seems to be up in flames in September, but QB D.J Uiagalelei might be packing his bags in mid-October. DJ U has been horrific, and the Noles' offense has lacked explosiveness in two games.
The Noles are outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush, pass available yards and third-down success. Overall, they're 121st in EPA/play, which is stunning considering the opponents they've faced thus far.
What is also stunning about the Noles' offense is that it's 62nd in net starting field position. You'd think their offense would be putting up better results, which bodes even worse for the overall team.
The offense is the least of their worries as the defense is in shockingly worse shape than the offense. The defense had high expectations entering the season, but anybody with a pulse can see that the Noles' defensive front has been bullied.
They're 122nd in Net-EPA and are getting torched down on third and fourth down. They're amongst the worst teams in the nation in success rate allowed in those situations.
The Noles are 6.5-point favorites against Memphis and may have made some adjustments over the bye week, but I can't back them at any point for the rest of the season until we see improvement from both units.
The Noles are on upset alert, and if they lose the game outright, we'll start seeing many empty seats in Tallahassee moving forward.
