Memphis and Navy look to continue their strong starts this weekend in an American Athletic Conference matchup on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network).
The Tigers have a perfect 3-0 record after securing a big win at Florida State in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen won their two contests before their bye last week and come into this AAC game well rested.
Memphis is favored by 9.5 points on the spread while the total sits at 50.5. The Tigers are also -355 on the moneyline.
The 2023 matchup between these two was only decided by four points, and I believe this could be another tight contest in Annapolis. My Memphis vs. Navy prediction is below.
Memphis vs Navy Prediction
- Memphis vs Navy Pick: Navy +10
My Memphis vs Navy best bet is on the Midshipmen spread with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs Navy Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 / -115 | -355 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 / -115 | +280 |
- Memphis vs Navy Point Spread: Memphis -9.5 (-110) · Navy +9.5 (-110)
- Memphis vs Navy Total: Over/Under 50.5
- Memphis vs Navy Moneyline: Memphis -355 · Navy +280
Memphis vs Navy Preview
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: Defense Leads the Way
Coach Ryan Silverfield and his squad’s win over the Seminoles was sweet for multiple reasons. For starters, the Tigers took the opportunity to beat former coach Mike Norvell, who left them before their 2019 Cotton Bowl appearance.
The victory in Tallahassee was also Memphis' first road win over a Power Four opponent since taking down Kansas in 2015.
A lot of the success is due to a dominant defense, which held FSU to a season-low 238 yards with four sacks and three turnovers. This is the same defense that ranks inside the top 20 in the country in multiple categories, including tackles for loss (6th), total defense (11th) and scoring defense (17th).
The offense hasn’t been too bad, either. In fact, the Tigers have scored 20 or more points in 30 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation.
Silverfield was the coach when the program played in its last major bowl, and if this fine play continues, he could be leading the the Tigers into the playoff as the Group of Five representative.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: New Offense, Better Results
Coming into last season, head coach Brian Newberry decided to move away from the triple option that the school has always been known for.
It turned out to be a decision that didn’t fully work as Navy missed out on a bowl. However, Newberry has made another switch to the offense that should be closer to what we're used to seeing at Navy.
The new offensive coordinator is Drew Cronic, who was the head coach at Mercer. He led the Bears to the FCS Playoffs for the first time using his hybrid Wing-T offense.
In 2022, Mercer finished with 339 pass attempts, then threw 308 times last season compared to 510 rushes. Similar to the triple option, the key to the offense is the quarterback making the right decisions.
Blake Horvath won the competition in the summer and has started both games. He ran for a career-high 122 yards and three touchdowns in the last outing and will need another big showing here.
Memphis vs Navy
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Navy match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. Navy Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 120 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 26 | |
Navy Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 4 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 55 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 31 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 56 | 66 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 36 | 87 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (110) | 29.0 (97) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (106) | 79% (3) |
Memphis vs Navy Pick & Prediction
In a game I don’t see having many possessions, I can only look toward the underdog getting multiple scores.
So, my best bet is for Navy to cover the +10 at ESPN BET, which I would take down to +9. I also don’t hate a look at this game falling under a total of 48.5 or better.
Whenever you talk about a service academy, you know the game is going to be played at a very slow pace. The Midshipmen are no different as they consistently rank outside the top 120 in tempo.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have slowed down their tempo under Silverfield. In 2021, Memphis ranked 19th in seconds per play. That has dropped to 106th this season.
Another advantage is the fact that Navy is rolling out a new offense. Yes, the Midshipmen have shown film over two games, but with how soft those opponents were, I have a feeling the new offensive coordinator likely hasn’t shown everything yet.
On the flip side, Memphis was going all out for the win last week against the Seminoles. The home team has now had a full week off to prepare.
Remember, this was a contest that was decided by just four points last season. I think Navy can do enough in this letdown spot to stay within the number.
Pick: Navy +10 (Play to +9)
How to Watch Memphis vs Navy Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Memphis vs Navy Betting Trends
- Memphis is 3-0 in its first three games.
- Memphis is 3-0 in its first three games against the spread.
- Memphis is 1-0 in its road games against the spread this season.
- The total has gone over in none of Memphis' first three games.
- Navy is 2-0 in its first two games.
- Navy is 1-1 in its first two games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in Navy's first two games.
- The total has gone over in both of Navy's home games this season.
