Before we get to the AAC Championship that features Tulane, the Green Wave (9-2, 7-0 AAC) will host the Memphis Tigers (9-2, 5-2) on Thursday, Nov. 28 for a Thanksgiving Day matchup.
Tulane and Army will meet in the AAC Championship on Friday, Dec. 6 at a location yet determined. The Green Wave and Black Knights are the only undefeated teams in conference play, leading every other member of the AAC by two games.
While Tulane and Army can lose their Week 14 contests, home-field advantage is at for both teams. If both Army and Tulane win Week 14, the College Football Playoff rankings may be the deciding factor on whether Yulman Stadium or Michie Stadium will host the AAC title game.
Memphis will look to spoil Tulane’s intentions of staying home in New Orleans the first week of December. The Tigers have suffered 2 conference losses, a 56-44 loss at Navy in Week 4 and a 44-36 trip to UTSA in Week 10. Both games were on the road and had a combined point total of 180 points.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, as Tulane enters as a -13.5 favorite with an over/under set at 55.
Let's dive into my Memphis vs. Tulane predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 28.
Memphis vs Tulane Prediction
- Memphis vs. Tulane Pick: Over 55
My Tulane vs. Memphis best bet is for both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs Tulane Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +450 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -600 |
- Memphis vs Tulane Spread: Memphis +13.5 (-110) · Tulane -13.5 (-110)
- Memphis vs Tulane Over/Under: 55 Points
- Memphis vs Tulane Moneyline: Memphis +450 · Tulane -600
Memphis vs Tulane Preview
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: Better Than Numbers Indicate
There was a continuous signal that the Memphis defense had issues stopping AAC opponents before the UTSA loss. North Texas put 44 on the board in a highly explosive Week 8 contest. The Mean Green created 10 pass explosives with four offensive possessions averaging at least 10 yards per play.
Those struggles continued in Week 9 while hosting Charlotte, allowing the 49ers five yards per rush and a touchdown on every scoring opportunity.
The 3-3-5 defense has been poor in a number of basic fundamentals, ranking 124th in broken tackles allowed. The inability of the nickel secondary to stop offenses in one-on-one tackling situations has created a rank of 119th against the explosive rush.
Despite the issues in Rush EPA (Expected Points Added), the Tigers are 11th in our latest Havoc Rankings thanks to a high mark in forced fumbles.
Quarterback Seth Henigan has kept the offense humming thanks to a top-20 rank in offensive momentum killer.
Henigan has posted 28 big-time throws to just 12 turnover-worthy plays this season, indicating the passing has been more elite than his 21 touchdowns indicate.
Memphis ranks 13th in On-Target Rate, a statistic from Sports Info Solutions that measures the accuracy of hitting targets in stride.
When hitches and crossing routes aren't moving the chains, Memphis turns to Mario Anderson Jr. to lead a top-20 rushing attack that uses heavy zone-read concepts.
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: In a Good Spot
The Green Wave have left no doubt on over the previous three games, as five of their seven conference wins have come with a minimum 96% post-game win expectancy.
Losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State in nonconference play hindered Tulane from making a run as the top Group of Five team, but an AAC Championship appearance in head coach Jon Sumrall's first season is a major accomplishment.
Offensive coordinator Joe Craddock uses a heavy rush attack that utilizes a variety of concepts, including outside zone, power and man.
The centerpiece of the offense is running back Mahki Hughes, generating nearly 1,300 yards on the season with 15 touchdowns and 56 missed tackles forced.
The sophomore averages more than four yards after first contact, a lethal combination with an offensive line that's top-25 in Line Yards.
https://twitter.com/American_Conf/status/1842625855849369615
The Tulane defense has been one of the best in the conference under coordinator Greg Gasparato’s nickel package.
The Green Wave sit top-25 in Havoc thanks to one of the best pass-rush units and a hard stop rank in the top five of all FBS defenses.
The numbers are even more impressive in passing downs, ranking top-five in both efficiency and explosives allowed.
Edge rushers Matthew Fobbs-White and Adin Huntington have created 39 pressures, while linebacker Tyler Grubbs leads the team with 25 stops, defined by PFF as a complete failure by the offense.
Memphis vs Tulane Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Tulane match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. Tulane Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 28 |  |
| Pass Success | 79 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 11 | |
Tulane Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 37 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 78 | 28 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 39 |
| Middle 8 | 104 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (80) | 31.4 (132) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (111) | 67% (4) |
Memphis vs Tulane Pick & Prediction
Action Network's projection calls for Tulane to be favored by 11, short of the current market set at two touchdowns. The bigger question is finding the motivation for this game, with Memphis projected for the Hawaii Bowl and Tulane’s upcoming conference championship game.
While Memphis is the look in regard to a side, there are defensive issues that have percolated down the stretch worth noting in this game.
The Tigers have given up a plenty of explosives against teams using man and outside zone — two of the biggest concepts used by the Green Wave offense.
Memphis ranks bottom-15 nationally in rush explosives allowed, an indication that Hughes should hit the Tigers with a few runs to get into scoring position.
Memphis also sits 70th in Defensive Finishing Drives — a poor number in defending the extended red zone considering a strength of schedule of 132nd.
The next question is Memphis' ability to join Tulane on the scoreboard.
While the overall numbers from Henigan have not made the Tigers one of the more explosive offenses in the nation, the numbers in early downs tell a different story.
Memphis has one of the highest rates nationally in choosing pass on first downs, as the Tigers will go right at a secondary that ranks 29th in creating contested catches.
The Tulane defense has struggled with broken tackles as well, ranking 127th in that area this season. The bigger number in the analytics is standard downs explosives, as Tulane allows a big play at one of the worst rates in the country.
Look for Henigan and Memphis to get down the field early in standard downs, taking advantage of a defense that's 121st in Standard Downs EPA Allowed.
Tulane will also have success on the ground with run concepts that Memphis has been unable to defend all season.
Our Action Network total projection comes in at 56.5, just above the biggest key number in totals. Buying a half-point on totals is only considered around the key of 55, as the juice on this number should be limited to -120 or better.
Pick: Over 55 (-120 or Better)
Memphis vs Tulane Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Memphis heads to Tulane on Thursday, Nov. 28 to face Tulane at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN on Thanksgiving Day.
Memphis vs Tulane Betting Trends
Memphis vs Tulane Weather
