The Memphis Tigers (4-1, 0-1 AAC) take on the South Florida Bulls (2-3, 0-1) at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
This game was originally scheduled for Friday and has been moved from Tampa, Florida, to Orlando’s Camping World Stadium. Memphis is a favorite in the contest of 7.5 points, with a total on the game of 61.5.
Where does the betting value lie? Read further for my Memphis vs. USF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Memphis Tigers vs USF Bulls Prediction
- Memphis vs USF Pick: Memphis -8 (Play to -9.5)
My USF vs Memphis best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs USF Odds, Spread, Line
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -108 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | -320 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -113 | 59.5 -105o / -115u | +260 |
- Memphis vs USF Spread: Memphis -9
- Memphis vs USF Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- Memphis vs USF Moneyline: Memphis ML -320 · USF ML +260
Memphis Football vs USF Football Preview
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: An Explosive Offense
Memphis comes in off a bye week after a sluggish home win against Middle Tennessee State by a score of 24-7.
Memphis was one of the co-favorites to win the American Athletic Conference at the beginning of the season and through three weeks, the Tigers were cruising.
Then came a road trip to Navy, where here at the Action Network, we were all over the Mids to show up in a prime home spot.
The Tigers have an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who has completed 64% of his passes this season with a 7-2 touchdown to interception ratio.
The run game has been explosive this season as well, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Defensively, the Tigers have played above expectation this year, save for the trip to Navy.
This could be a spot where Memphis finds itself in some favorable circumstances when facing USF.
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview: Several Questions Surrounding The Bulls
The Bulls come in off a bye week after back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of Tulane and Miami. South Florida has struggled coming off of a closer game against Alabama and a blowout win vs. Southern Miss.
The Bulls' defense has been a real concern the last several weeks, allowing 1120 yards and 95 points in the last couple of games. There are also concerns about star quarterback Byrum Brown, who was injured in their last game and is considered day-to-day.
Whispers out of the USF camp indicate he might not play this week and there is a large drop-off between him and backup Bryce Archie.
USF vs Memphis Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and Memphis match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. USF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 33 |  |
| Line Yards | 66 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 119 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 99 | |
USF Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 74 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 62 |
| PFF Coverage | 69 | 129 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 37 | 29 |
| Middle 8 | 80 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (72) | 21.9 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (114) | 56% (75) |
How to Bet My Memphis vs USF Pick
I am going to lay the points here with Memphis at -8.
I feel the circumstances surrounding this contest are tough for South Florida.
First, we have the injury questions for Brown. He is battling a lower leg injury, which will affect his mobility if he does play and if he cannot go, there are major concerns about this USF offense moving the ball against a Memphis defense that is 25th nationally in defensive EPA per play.
Memphis is also fifth nationally in defensive havoc achieved and if Brown is limited in his mobility or if the backup quarterback is in the negative plays and sacks, he could certainly pile up for USF.
The second negative circumstance here is that this game was moved to a neutral site in Orlando. Hurricane Milton this week created devastation in the Florida area that will take time to recover from, and with this contest already being postponed from Friday to Saturday, moving the game does not favor USF.
I would assume the attendance would be sporadic. The site move creates a neutral field environment and zero home-field advantage for the Bulls.
The third negative for USF is how the practice schedule has been completely disrupted by the inclement weather. Alex Golesh alluded to the disruption in his press conference on Wednesday about how the team has scrambled to find lodging and food for the team during this time.
The travel schedule of being on a bus in traffic for about three or four hours and the weather being on the minds of the players will certainly have an impact on the play on the field Saturday.
I feel the market here is offering up the hook here to entice betting on USF, but this is a spot where USF's defense could get exposed.
Memphis' offense is the best unit on the field for either side and was just inhibited its last time out by wind and rain against MTSU.
With USF just 83rd in defensive EPA per pass and 106th nationally in defensive pass success rate surrendered, this could be a spot for Memphis to light it up through the air. Memphis wide receivers Roc Taylor and Koby Drake are threats to take the lid off of it every play.
Based on what we saw when USF played against Miami, Tulane (with a backup quarterback) and even Southern Miss, this might not end well.
Pick: Memphis -8 (Play to -9.5)
Memphis vs USF Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
USF vs Memphis Betting Trends
Memphis vs USF Weather
