The FCS Mercer Bears (9-1, 6-1 SoCon) will visit the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2, 4-2 SEC) in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Mercer has been the cream of the crop in FCS play. The Bears have stomped through the Southern Conference, most recently with a convincing 34-0 shutout victory at VMI. Freshman quarterback Whitt Newbauer had a career day, throwing for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide let everyone know last week that they’re far from out of the College Football Playoff race. Alabama went into Death Valley and destroyed LSU 42-13, mostly thanks to the legs of Jalen Milroe, who ran for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Alabama is a 41.5-point favorite on the spread with a 57.5-point over/under.
Where does the betting value lie? Read further for my Mercer vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks.
Mercer vs Alabama Prediction
- Mercer vs Alabama Pick: Over 57.5
My Mercer-Alabama best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Mercer vs Alabama Odds
| Mercer Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+41.5 -105 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-41.5 -115 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | |
- Mercer vs Alabama Point Spread: Mercer +41.5 (-105) · Alabama -41.5 (-115)
- Mercer vs Alabama Total: Over/Under 57.5 (-115o / -105u)
Mercer vs Alabama Preview
Mercer Bears Betting Preview: Next Man Up?
As of this writing, we still don’t know what Mercer is doing at quarterback. They can always stick with Newbauer, but the Bears would really love to have D.J. Smith, who’s day-to-day with a lower-body injury, back in the fold.
While Smith is prone to turnovers, he’s mostly efficient, completing passes at a 72% rate – which ranks fourth in the FCS.
The run game has been built by running back Dwayne McGee, who’s been a workhorse all season. He may not be the most dynamic back, but he gets a ton of volume and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Through the air, Kelin Parsons and Brayden Smith are huge pieces, though we didn’t see Smith last week against VMI. If Smith is still unavailable, that leaves receiver Parker Wroble to step back in; the senior had an incredible showing last week with 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensively, this team is one of the best, ranking eighth in the FCS in points allowed per game. A lot of that has to do with the Bears’ incredible secondary consisting of Myles Redding, TJ Moore, and Dainsus Miller — who have combined for a staggering 16 interceptions.
This won’t be any walk in the park, but Alabama may have its work cut out for it if the Tide don’t take Mercer seriously.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Is Bama Back?
A lot of people are speculating that for most of the season, Milroe was playing hurt. Based on what we saw at LSU, those speculations may just be right.
Milroe looked explosive as ever last week, and his ability to improvise may be just what this team needs to make one last big run before he heads to the NFL.
I’d expect more passing from him in this battle, though. LSU’s inability to stop a mobile quarterback also contributed to his monstrous run game, and he’s primarily thrown the ball against inferior programs.
We know the weight Ryan Williams brings, as his nearly 20 yards per carry has been critical to making Alabama have one of the more explosive passing games in college football. Germie Bernard has also been a favorite of Milroe’s, as he averages a smidge under 15 yards per catch.
Alabama also has a dynamic duo in the backfield with Jam Miller and Justice Haynes. Haynes has started to see an uptick in carries and is starting to create a lot of high-volume plays. Both he and Miller have combined for 13 touchdowns and rank seventh in explosiveness.
Bama’s defense has been a roller coaster ride this season, but it seems like it’s starting to buy into defensive coordinator Kane Wommack.
However, it won’t be easy since its top run-stopper, Que Robinson, is out for the season. However, Jihaad Campbell and Deonte Lawson have combined for 15.5 tackles for loss and six sacks.
The secondary will also be on high alert. Defensive backs Malachi Moore, Bray Hubbard, and Domani Jackson have helped this team achieve a third-best Pass Success Rate allowed.
Mercer vs Alabama Pick & Prediction
Depending on how the game goes, I think we’ll see Alabama’s backups a little sooner than we’d usually expect.
That means Ty Simpson will come in for Milroe, while Richard Young will come in for Haynes and Miller.
The spread is listed at 42.5, and even though it’s an FBS/FCS matchup, I typically like to steer clear of that number — especially considering the Tide’s history after big wins, like when they fell to Vanderbilt after the Georgia game.
So, just to be safe, I’ll lean toward the over. I can see Bama’s explosiveness being too much for Mercer to handle, so we could be in for a scoring frenzy in Tuscaloosa.
Pick: Over 57.5
Mercer vs Alabama Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network+ |
Mercer vs Alabama will be played at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 2 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network+.
Mercer vs Alabama Betting Trends
Mercer vs Alabama Weather
