Mercer (11-2, 7th Seed) travels to Fargo, ND, to take on North Dakota State (11-2, 2 Seed) in quarterfinal action of the FCS Playoffs on Saturday, Dec. 14. This game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ABC and ESPN+.
The Bison are significant home favorites of 22.5 points in the contest, with a total of 53.5. This game marks the first-ever FCS quarterfinal matchup for the Bears and the 15th consecutive for the Bison.
Let's dive into my Mercer vs. North Dakota State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Dec. 14.
Mercer vs North Dakota State Prediction
- Mercer vs North Dakota State Pick: Under 53.5
My North Dakota State vs Mercer best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Mercer vs North Dakota State Odds
| Mercer Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
22.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Mercer vs North Dakota State Point Spread: Mercer +22.5 (-110) · North Dakota State -22.5 (-110)
- Mercer vs North Dakota State Total: Over/Under 53.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercer vs North Dakota State Moneyline: Mercer +1000 · North Dakota State -2000
Mercer vs North Dakota State Preview
Mercer Bears Betting Preview: Facing A Tough Challenge
Mercer comes into this one off a less-than-dominant 17-10 home win against Rhode Island last week.
The Bears struggled offensively against URI as quarterback Whitt Newbauer threw for just 57 total yards on 10/20 passing.
Mercer was without an explosive pass play in the game and the ground game saw just three explosives, with half of Mercer’s 185 rushing yards coming on two plays.
The defense was lights out for Mercer again, as they have been all season, holding Rhode Island to just 49 rushing yards and 1.9 yards per carry.
This figures to be a much tougher challenge for Mercer this week on the road against one of the best teams in the country.
The Bears are going to be looking to prove they belong in that category as well, but they are going to have to play a near-perfect offensive football game to get the win this week.
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Favorable Matchup Ahead?
NDSU was in for more than it bargained for against Abilene Christian last week.
The Wildcats were locked in early, building a 17-3 road lead before NDSU scored the next 31 points to take control and pull away late in the third quarter of a 51-31 win.
The Wildcats had an impressive defensive showing in their previous game against NAU and the defense did some things early to frustrate NDSU.
It was clear, however, that the Bison were the superior team and after mistakes started mounting for ACU, the Bison took firm control and never looked back.
This matchup against Mercer should be favorable for North Dakota State since the Bears are reliant on the ground game and have struggled with pass explosiveness.
I would not expect the Bison to have to come from behind again in this one the way they did last week.
Mercer vs North Dakota State Pick & Prediction
I am taking the under in this matchup and it is one of my favorite plays of the weekend in the FCS.
Mercer is extremely run-heavy and will surely look to get leading rusher Dwayne McGee going in this one early. McGee has 1132 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the season, while backup running back CJ Miller has also shown some pop.
Newbauer took over for DJ Smith halfway through the season and has taken care of the ball with an 11:3 touchdown to interception ratio. NDSU has been susceptible to giving up explosives through the air and its tackling grades score low. However, Mercer is unlikely to take full advantage of this with its limitations in the passing game.
NDSU gave up 6.6 yards per carry against ACU last week and has, at times this season, been gashed on the ground. Mercer knows it cannot get into a shootout with NDSU, so the game plan has to include a heavy yet efficient run game.
I would expect Mercer to run the ball a lot on early downs to give themselves a chance to succeed on third down, something that has not come easy for the Bears this year. Mercer is converting just 34.6% of third-down attempts.
The Bears should hang their hat on defense here, as Mercer boasts the top-rated FCS rushing defense, giving up just 67 yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry. Only one FCS team has exceeded 100 rushing yards against Mercer this season. It also has the best FCS third-down defense while holding opponents to just 24.7% successful conversions this season.
In addition to having the best rush defensive stop unit in FCS, the Bears have quite the pass rush, securing 42 sacks, 104 tackles for loss and 72 additional quarterback hurries this year.
The strength of this defense is in the veteran linebacking corps led by Isaac Dowling, Marques Thomas and Ken Standley. These three have combined for 252 tackles and consistently fly to the football every week. Oh yeah, and the secondary has registered 23 interceptions to go along with 63 passes defensed.
The Bears will make it difficult on NDSU, especially in the first half of this one, and I would suspect a first-half field position battle. Mercer should have confidence in its defensive front to get pressure on NDSU quarterback Cam Miller and should make him uncomfortable in passing downs.
Three on the defensive line have at least 6.5 sacks, and I would expect sharp play from the front seven for Mercer.
At the end of the day, NDSU should be looking to salt this game away in the second half and gear up for a semi-final showdown, likely with South Dakota State.
The Bears' offense will need to play flawless football to score, something they could not do for long stretches this season. The defense should keep them within shouting distance, but Mercer is not likely to score enough to win or get this game over.
Take the low side here.
Pick: Under 53.5
Mercer vs North Dakota State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Fargodome, Fargo, ND |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Mercer vs North Dakota State Weather
