The Cal Golden Bears (3-1) are set to host their first-ever ACC game from California Memorial Stadium against the No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (5-0) at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This will also be Cal's first ESPN College Gameday appearance.
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal will have an extra day of rest after surviving Virginia Tech, 38-34, on Friday of Week 5. The Hokies' final play of the game was initially called a game-winning touchdown catch, but was later overturned to keep Miami's undefeated season alive.
Cal will play only its second FBS game at home, as it already completed road trips to Florida State and Auburn. The Bears are coming off a bye week, and head coach Justin Wilcox is 7-5 against the spread with extra time since taking the job in 2017.
The Bears suffered a defeat to the Seminoles in Week 4, outgaining Florida State by 1.4 overall yards per play.
The Hurricanes are favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. Meanwhile, the total sits at 55 for this ACC duel.
Here are my Miami vs. Cal predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Miami vs Cal Prediction
- Miami vs. Cal Pick: Cal +10.5
My Cal vs. Miami best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Cal Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54 -110 / -110 | -400 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54 -110 / -110 | +320 |
- Miami vs Cal Point Spread: Miami -10.5
- Miami vs Cal Over/Under: 54 Points
- Miami vs Cal Moneyline: Miami -400 · Cal +320
Miami vs Cal Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Havoc is Key
There was evidence Cam Ward would have a subpar game at some point in this campaign. The former signal caller for Incarnate Word and Washington State entered a fifth collegiate season with a combined 76 interceptions and fumbles.
The Hokies were dialed in from a Havoc perspective in Week 5, generating five quarterback hurries on Ward.
On 48 tries, the Hurricanes' offensive line allowed nearly as many pressured dropbacks as a clean pocket. Ward took four sacks on pressured attempts, completing just 8-of-21 passes.
Cam Ward fights off a sack, then gets wrapped up but gets a pass off for a massive Miami play 💥
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) September 28, 2024
Missed blocks have plagued this offense, forcing Ward out of the pocket for 167 scramble yards this season.
With running back Damien Martinez being neutralized on the ground, explosives have come through the air. Xavier Restrepo has been one of the most dangerous slot receivers in the nation, generating five touchdowns, while catching four of five contested targets.
Isaiah Horton and Jacolby George have provided home run potential on the outside, combining for another five receiving touchdowns.
On the flip side, there have been two problematic areas for the defense through the first quarter of the season. The Canes' tackle grading has fallen to 88th, per PFF, a number that declined thanks to 19 missed tackles against Virginia Tech.
With a loss of tackling fundamentals, teams have been able to execute explosives through rushing attempts. The Hurricanes are one of the few defenses to allow a rushing attempt to eclipse 70 yards.
The 3-3-5 of coordinator Lance Guidry has struggled against teams' run concepts that include outside zone and power.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Can Cal Hang?
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza will have chance to lead his team to victory over the biggest University from his old stomping grounds. Mendoza played at Columbus High School, a 13-minute car ride from the University of Miami campus in Coral Gables.
The quarterback's family is no stranger to Cristobal, who played high school football with Mendoza's father.
Cal has done its most damage when Mendoza gets into passing downs, generating a top-35 success rate. The sophomore has avoided mistakes so far, posting a turnover-worthy-play rate of less than 2% on 152 drop backs.
Mendoza has thrived on deep passing, creating five big-time throws while finding explosive wideout Nyziah Hunter for four touchdowns on the season.
On the HUNT 😤@nyziahHunter3 with his second TD reception of the day. #GoBears | #ALLINpic.twitter.com/EFyplzTzHb
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 7, 2024
The Bears have been stingy against opposing passing attacks, running man coverage on 40% of snaps versus Cover 1 and Cover 3 while in zone. PFF grades Cal as the 17th-best coverage unit, contributing to a defensive quality drives rank of fifth in FBS.
While the overall Havoc number sits just outside the top 50, Cal leads the nation in interceptions with 10 overall. Corner Nohl Williams is one of the most dangerous cover defenders in college football, already picking off four passes through four games.
The Bears excel in keeping opponents from creating a methodical drive. Through four games, Cal has allowed opponents to reach red zone territory on seven drives with only three scores.
Cal has allowed 14 points or less in four consecutive games for the first time since 1979.
Miami vs Cal Pick & Prediction
The first handicap when Miami is involved is the opposing defense's ability to create Havoc on Ward. Missed blocks have created open pass rush lanes, a positive for the Bears and their top-40 pass rush rank.
With Ward expected to feel pressure, Williams is sure to provide a safety blanket for the Cal secondary against Restrepo in the slot. The Bears are expected to maintain a top-30 rank against pass explosives.
For the Bears to have any shot in this game, the connection between Mendoza and Hunter must get behind the Hurricanes' defense.
Explosives will be needed for Cal to score, as the team has floundered in scoring position. In 13 possessions in the extended red zone, the Bears have averaged just 2.8 points per trip.
The Action Network projects this game closer than the market offering, suggesting Miami as 8.5-point favorites. There are avenues for Cal to keep up with Miami, as Hunter should haul in game-deciding catches, while Williams is tasked with playing lockdown corner.
Cristobal's proclamation that Miami suffers from missed assignments, tackles and blocks will create a covering opportunity for the home team.
Pick: Cal +10.5 (Play to +10)
How to Watch Miami vs Cal Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Miami vs Cal Betting Trends
- Cal has landed 36% of the tickets but generated 63% of the money.
- The under has taken 59% of the bets and 75% of the money.
Miami vs Cal Weather
