Miami vs Clemson Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -108 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +720 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -112 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -1200 |
Clemson looks to stay undefeated and keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive when it hosts Miami.
After a dud of a performance against Florida State, Miami got a resounding 35-14 win over Georgia Tech. Things have gone about as poorly as possible for Mario Cristobal in his first season on South Beach.
However, an upset of Clemson would be a positive step in an otherwise lost season. It'd also get the Hurricanes to a bowl game.
After losing to Notre Dame, Clemson got back on track with a 31-16 win over Louisville last weekend. The Tigers are technically still alive in the College Football Playoff picture, but they are going to need a lot of help.
They need a resounding win over Miami and also need to win the ACC convincingly to have a shot at the playoff.
Miami Hurricanes
Hurricanes Offense
Miami's offense really hasn't been as bad as the final box scores have shown. The Hurricanes are 22nd in Success Rate, but the biggest problem is that they aren't explosive, ranking 126th in the country.
Sorting through the Miami injury report is a full-time job at this point, and it's up in the air as to whether it will be Tyler Van Dyke or Jacurri Brown at quarterback on Saturday.
Neither Van Dyke nor Brown has been very effective in the passing game, but Van Dyke is undoubtedly the better passer.
If Miami is going to hang around and cover this game, it has to be able to run the ball effectively. The Hurricanes are eighth in the country in Rushing Success Rate, 33rd in Offensive Line Yards and 46th in Power Success Rate.
They could also could return one of their best running backs in Henry Parrish, who has an 85.6 PFF rushing grade and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Mario Cristobal “feels good” about Henry Parrish and Leonard Taylor.
Says Jalen Rivers and Tyler Van Dyke also have a chance to play this week. @AllHurricanes
— Luke Chaney (@luke_chaney4) November 14, 2022
Hurricanes Defense
Miami actually has a pretty solid defense, despite its 5-5 record. The Hurricanes are 29th in Success Rate Allowed, 35th in EPA/Play Allowed and 34th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
However, the biggest problem is the Hurricanes are giving up way too many big plays. Miami ranks 118th in explosiveness allowed and a lot of it has to do with the fact it is 120th in terms of a tackling grade, per PFF.
Miami has done a really good job stopping the run this season, only allowing 3.7 yards per carry and ranking in the top 40 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/RushAallowed and Stuff Rate.
The secondary has been the biggest problem for Miami's defense this season, and it has to do with the number of big plays it's given up. The Hurricanes are allowing 8.4 yards per attempt (118th in FBS) largely because they rank 127th in passing explosiveness allowed.
That's not good news when facing DJ Uiagalelei, who is an elite deep ball passer.
Clemson Tigers
Tigers Offense
The Clemson offense has been far from elite this season, and a lot of that has to do with the play of Uiagalelei. He had an incredible game against Wake Forest and has 22 big-time throws compared to only eight turnover-worthy throws, which is all great.
However, he's been average at best since that game.
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Image via PFF.
Uiagalelei's ability to throw the deep ball is going to be crucial in this game. On throws over 20 yards in the air, he has a 92.0 PFF passing grade. Meanwhile, Miami's secondary is 127th in passing explosiveness allowed.
You can also beat Miami on the ground and Clemson has a decent rushing attack. The Tigers rank 18th in Rushing Success Rate and 21st in Offensive Line Yards. Additionally, Miami is 120th in the nation in tackling, so Will Shipley should be able to break off some big runs.
Tigers Defense
Clemson has been really average up front this season, which isn't typical of a Dabo Swinney-coached team. The Tigers rank 42nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 72nd in Defensive Line Yards.
In their past four games against Florida State, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Louisville, they've allowed 5.4 yards per carry. So, Miami, which boasts a solid rushing attack, should be able to run the ball consistently.
Clemson has an outstanding pass rush that ranks fifth nationally in Havoc and sixth in pass rush grade, per PFF. Miami has an average offensive line, so this could be the one big advantage for the Tigers on Saturday.
Clemson's secondary has been the strength of its defense, sitting 23rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate, 14th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 39th in terms of coverage grade, per PFF.
Miami vs Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Clemson match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 51 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 23 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Clemson Offense vs. Miami Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 34 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 62 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 34 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 39 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 5 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (75) | 25.9 (53) |
| Rush Rate | 50.3% (86) | 55.1% (58) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs Clemson Betting Pick
I think this total is a tad too low given the advantages both offenses have.
Uiagalelei should be able to throw all over the Miami secondary, while the Hurricanes should be able to run effectively while getting their best running back from injury.
Both Miami and Clemson play at an average pace with the Tigers ranking 53rd in seconds per play and Miami ranking 75th. If Clemson takes the lead, Miami will be forced to pick up the tempo.
I have 52.4 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 47.5.
Pick: Over 47.5 |
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