Conference USA attempted to replicate the quirkiness of midweek MACtion, but it did not come close.
When the calendar turns to November, the majority of the nation's temperatures have begun to tumble, and it also means that the MAC is on full display for our college football consumption on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
It's so good that the MAC is back during the week.
On Tuesday evening, we kick off with a lopsided matchup, according to oddsmakers. The Miami (OH) RedHawks (4-4, 3-1 MAC) travel to Muncie, Indiana, to take on the Ball State Cardinals (3-5, 2-2).
Both teams are coming off wins, so this is a critical matchup for their MAC Championship game hopes. The MAC always seems wide open, and it could be curtains for Ball State if it's handed its third loss in conference play.
Oddsmakers have the RedHawks as 12.5-point favorites, and the total is 49.5.
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Prediction
- Miami (OH) vs Ball State Pick: Ball State Team Total Under 17.5
My Ball State vs. Miami (OH) best bet is for the Cardinals to stay under their team total. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -480 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +360 |
- Miami (OH) vs Ball State Point Spread: Miami (OH) -12 · Ball State +12
- Miami (OH) vs Ball State Over/Under: 48 Points
- Miami (OH) vs Ball State Moneyline: Miami (OH) -480 · Ball State +360
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Preview
Miami RedHawks Betting Preview: Leaning on Gabbert's Arm
The RedHawks steamrolled to a win last week against Central Michigan, defeating the Chippewas 46-7. The offense compiled 540 yards, with more than 300 coming on the ground.
Miami only runs the ball a few times, but it was having so much success last week that it had no choice but to utilize it. It was a complete beatdown, and now it finds itself with a favorable matchup against the Cardinals.
Offensively, the RedHawks have had mixed results thus far in 2024, but there's a reason they've leaned on their passing attack. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has thrown for 1,605 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with seven interceptions.
They are 130th in plays per game and play at a snail's pace on offense. They rank 48th in Pass Success Rate but 117th in Rush Success Rate.
It is an incredible matchup against Ball State's secondary, which is 131st in EPA per Pass Allowed. It's also an abysmal 130th in Available Yards Allowed.
The RedHawks are 17th in Available Yards, so there are zero excuses for them to find success offensively. The defensive side of the ball bodes even more vital, which is encouraging heading into the matchup.
They're also 36th in EPA per Pass and 26th in Early Down EPA per Play. That's an extreme advantage over the Cards, who struggle on early downs on offense.
Ball State struggled to throw the ball efficiently and heavily leaned on their run game. The RedHawks have proven to stifle opposing aerial attacks with their secondary and have also boded well against the run.
It's a terrific matchup for Miami, and I expect both sides of the ball to dominate. It's only a matter of question when the RedHawks decide to take their foot off the gas.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview: Coming Out Flat?
Ball State picked up a tremendous win last week against Northern Illinois — a team that defeated Notre Dame on the road earlier in the season. It was the best effort of the season, a season filled with dull moments.
The Cardinals are 2-2 in MAC play, so a loss here would essentially end their season and a chance at a bowl game. They will not be able to win out with their remaining schedule.
It will be challenging for them to put in a fiery effort here, as I assume they'll be flat after a big win. Not only that, but the matchup needs to be fixed in their favor.
The Cardinals come in at 65th in Rush Success Rate, above average across the FBS. They should be able to find some success against the RedHawks, who rank 103rd in Defensive Line Yards and 92nd in Havoc allowed.
Another positive offense is that they've been excellent at Finishing Drives, but the RedHawks are in the top 40 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives allowed. They will struggle to throw the ball, which is already an area where they are below average.
There is a path for them to have some success on the ground, but they only run the ball 48% of the time. I need more faith in their offense to sustain enough consecutive drives where they enter opposing territory.
Defensively, it has been an outright disaster. The Cardinals place outside the top 120 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Line Yards Allowed, and sit near the bottom of the FBS in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The Cards are also a horrific team in coverage and a poor tackling team. They've also been horrendous in the Middle 8, ranking 132nd.
There are far too many uncertainties on both sides of the ball, considering the area they've been most successful in is on the ground, which they only sometimes do offensively.
The defense is an outright joke, so there's no path to stops in the red zone.
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Ball State match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Ball State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 95 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 134 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 132 | |
Ball State Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 37 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 101 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 130 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 40 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 72 | 132 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (120) | 28.3 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (106) | 48% (111) |
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Pick & Prediction
I definitely can't back Ball State here, especially after its huge win. I have zero confidence that it'll be able to score on the ground, and its offensive tempo needs to be faster for my liking.
The total has already started to tumble from the open, but the best approach here is to fade the Cards, especially on offense. I like their team total under 17.5 here.
Miami (OH) should be able to put together successful offensive drives while taking a lot of time off the clock, and Ball State's offense could be in trouble if they heavily lean on their aerial attack.
Also, the Hawks' defense has been excellent in the red zone, which gives some insurance to the team in terms of total under.
I'd go with this approach instead of attacking the whole game total, as MACtion tends to get crazy around this time of year. I don't think the Cardinals offense shows up here. It could get ugly quickly.
Pick: Ball State Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, Nov. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Miami (OH) vs Ball State Betting Trends
- 64% of bets and 82% of the money are on Ball State to cover the spread
- 91% of bets and 86% of the money on the moneyline are on Miami (OH) to win outright
- 85% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
