Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday, Nov. 29

This is a week to give thanks, and Miami (OH) and Bowling Green have much to be thankful for this season.

Chief among those things is their ability to control their own destinies in reaching the MAC Championship Game.

The RedHawks (7-4) and Falcons (7-4) sit tied atop the MAC standings with Ohio in the regular season’s final week of play.

With Ohio favored by double digits over Ball State, this game is an effective elimination match (although Miami could still sneak in with a loss and Ohio loss).

While Miami is the defending conference champion, Bowling Green hasn’t appeared in the MAC Championship since 2014 and hasn’t won a title since the year before that.

The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites on the spread with a 39.5-point over/under.

Read on for my Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green predictions and college football picks.

Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Prediction

• Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green -2.5

My Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green best bet is on the Falcons to cover as short home favorites, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Friday, Nov. 29

12 p.m. ET

ESPNU

Miami (OH) Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 -110	39.5 -110 / -110	+110

Bowling Green Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -110	39.5 -110 / -110	-130

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Point Spread: Miami (OH) +2.5 (-110) · Bowling Green -2.5 (-110)
• Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Total: Over/Under 39.5
• Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Moneyline: Miami (OH) +110 · Bowling Green -130

Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Preview

Miami RedHawks Betting Preview: Remember What Losing Feels Like?

The RedHawks must forget what losing to a MAC team feels like.

Since dropping their first conference game of the season to Toledo, Miami has reeled off six consecutive MAC wins to put it just a win away from a chance at defending its conference crown.

The RedHawks have done so despite a weak running game. Miami ranks 118th nationally in Rush Success rate and only has more rushing touchdowns (eight) than 0-11 Kent State in the MAC.

Miami has had to rely on Brett Gabbert and the passing game to save the offense. Gabbert’s 18 passing touchdowns are the third most in the MAC, although the senior quarterback is coming off his first scoreless outing since a September matchup with Notre Dame.

Despite Miami's lack of a blockbuster offense, its defense has pulled its share of the weight, especially defending the pass, where the RedHawks rank 20th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.

Since losing that conference opener, the RedHawks defense has only allowed two total passing touchdowns in six games.

Miami is most susceptible at the line of scrimmage, where it ranks 84th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 100th in Defensive Line Yards.

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Aerial Attack

Bowling Green should have put the nation on alert when it hung within single digits of Penn State and Texas A&M to start the year.

While the Falcons have lost twice as many since those matchups with college football’s best, Bowling Green has proven to be one of the premier teams in the MAC.

Similarly to Miami, Bowling Green enters this matchup on a lengthy unbeaten streak of five games. The Falcons have won by double digits in each of those contests.

It’s only fitting that the Falcons have relied on moving through the air to find their offensive success. Bowling Green ranks 29th nationally in Pass Success Rate, with Connor Bazelak leading the conference at 7.9 yards per attempt. Bazelak’s 67.6% completion percentage is the highest mark of his six-year career when throwing more than 21 passes.

And while passing has led the way for Bowling Green’s offense, its secondary leads the defense. Bowling Green ranks 10th in Pass Success Rate allowed and has only allowed one MAC team to pass for more than 215 yards.

The Falcons excel at preventing explosive plays. In the MAC, they have allowed the second-fewest plays from scrimmage of at least 10 yards in length.

Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	118	40
Line Yards	58	111
Pass Success	45	10
Havoc	82	70
Finishing Drives	111	37
Quality Drives	40	42

Bowling Green Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	98	84
Line Yards	63	100
Pass Success	22	14
Havoc	105	51
Finishing Drives	73	4
Quality Drives	19	17

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	83	30
PFF Coverage	77	36
Special Teams SP+	49	37
Middle 8	58	42
Seconds per Play	30.1 (123)	30.0 (122)
Rush Rate	51% (103)	54% (74)

Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green Pick & Prediction

These teams have played like two of the best in the MAC all season long, so it’s only fitting that it comes down to a regular-season finale for a championship-game berth.

This will be a close game, but it boils down to the cliche that defense wins championships. Bowling Green has been playing better defense all season, with the secondary being its best feature.

Miami (OH) has no run game, so if its passing attack is grounded, the RedHawks will struggle to score points.

It also helps Bowling Green will be at home, and they’ve already been tested in high-stress games against Penn State and Texas A&M. Take the Falcons to win by a field goal, and maybe the RedHawks still get lucky with an Ohio loss, setting up a rematch of this decisive meeting.

Pick: Bowling Green -2.5 (-110, bet365)

Miami (OH) will be played at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Friday, Nov. 29 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPNU.