Miami (OH) vs. Ohio Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
MACtion is finally here, and boy, do we have a glorious in-state battle between Miami (OH) and Ohio in Athens on Tuesday night.
Miami is currently tied with Kent State for first place in the MAC East with a 3-1 record in the conference. RedHawks star quarterback Brett Gabbert returned to the lineup last game against Ball State, which was a big boost to an offense that has struggled this season.
The RedHawks boast one of the best defenses in the MAC, so they should be able to slow Ohio's offense.
It's been a really bad first season post-Frank Solich for the Bobcats, who are 1-7 on the season with that lone win coming against Akron.
The Bobcats defense hasn't stopped anyone, while the offense has scored over 20 points in every conference game this season. So, we'll see what Ohio can do on a cold Tuesday night in November.
Miami RedHawks
RedHawks Offense
Miami has really struggled to move the ball this season, both on the ground and through the air, as it's 111th in Success Rate.
With Gabbert back in the lineup, the Miami passing attack really improved against Ball State, as Gabbert averaged 9.00 yards per attempt, which is more of what we expected from the RedHawks coming into the season.
Brett Gabbert 23 yard TD to Jack Sorenson! Nice catch!#MiamiOH#Minnesota
— Sideline CFB (@SidelineCFB) September 11, 2021
That's exactly how they'll need to beat this Ohio defense because the Bobcats are allowing 7.6 yards per attempt.
However, Miami is really struggling to find a consistent ground game, as it's gaining only 4.1 yards per rush, rank 101st in EPA/Rush, and 96th in Rushing Success Rate.
So, the offensive success is going to be put in Gabbert's hands on Tuesday night.
RedHawks Defense
While Miami's defense hasn't been that great from a Success Rate standpoint, it's 15th in college football in Havoc, while Ohio ranks 57th in Havoc Allowed this season. So, the RedHawks should be able to put a lot of pressure on Kurtis Rourke. And that'll be important because Rourke has really struggled this season, as he's throwing for only 6.3 yards per attempt.
Miami has not been great in coverage this season, ranking only 82nd in EPA/Pass, 119th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, and 120th in coverage, per PFF. The good news for the RedHawks is Ohio doesn't have the passing attack that's going to be able to exploit them.
The front seven has been decent for Miami, allowing only 4.2 yards per rush while ranking 65th in EPA/Rush and 61st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. That will come in handy against an Ohio rushing attack that is 13th in EPA/Rush.
Ohio Bobcats
Bobcats Offense
Ohio's offense is built on a consistent run game.
The Bobcats are gaining 5.4 yards per attempt, rank 27th in Rushing Success Rate, 15th in Offensive Line Yards, and 18th in rushing explosiveness. So, it's not surprising to see that Ohio is running the ball 58.3% of the time.
However, in this matchup, the Bobcats need to have some success through the air given how bad Miami's secondary is. Additionally, starting center Nick Sink is questionable for Tuesday's game, which makes things even more difficult for the Bobcats.
Rourke has struggled to move the ball through the air this season. Ohio sits 119th in Passing Success Rate, 128th in passing explosiveness, and 85th in EPA/Pass. So, it likely won't be able to exploit the weakness of the Miami defense.
Bobcats Defense
The Ohio defense has been really bad this season, allowing 6.1 yards per play and ranking 120th in Success Rate Allowed.
It's going to have a lot of trouble stopping Gabbert and the Miami passing attack since it's 125th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. But Ohio's secondary is really good at limiting big plays, as it's 27th in passing explosive allowed. It's also the 50th-best unit in terms of coverage, per PFF.
The front seven hasn't been much better overall, allowing 5.3 yards per carry, ranking 113th in EPA/Rush, 100th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and 112th in Defensive Line Yards. However, this will be one of the worst rushing attacks the unit has seen this season.
Miami (OH) vs. Ohio Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Ohio match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Ohio Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 100 |  |
| Line Yards | 79 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 125 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 124 | 113 | |
| Big Play | 42 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 102 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ohio Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 44 | |
| Big Play | 78 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 127 |
| Coverage | 120 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 57 | 91 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 90 | 123 |
| Plays per Minute | 84 | 111 |
| Rush Rate | 53.5% (76) | 58.9% (39) |
Miami (OH) vs. Ohio Betting Pick
The pace of this game is going to be really slow on Tuesday.
Miami ranks 84th in plays per minute, while Ohio is 111th in that same category. With the Bobcats trying to control the tempo with their ground game, I think we'll see a low-scoring affair on a chilly Tuesday night in Athens.
I only have 44.47 points projected for this game, so I think there's some value on under 52.5 points and would play it down to 50.
