There's nothing better than MACtion on a Saturday.
That's what we have here, as the Toledo Rockets (3-1) welcome the Miami (OH) RedHawks (1-3) for a Week 6 college football matchup.
Miami (OH) enters this game with a 1-3 record and is coming off its first win of the year over UMass. It's also 1-3 against the spread, and every RedHawk game has stayed under the closing total.
Toledo comes into this game with a 3-1 record and looks to bounce back from its first loss of the year to Western Kentucky. The Rockets hold a 2-2 record against the spread and have gone over in three games.
Winds around 9 miles per hour will be present during this game, but with no rain and moderate temperatures, the weather shouldn't significantly impact the game.
The Rockets enter as -6.5 favorites with the over/under set at 44.
Read on for my Toledo vs Miami (OH) predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Prediction
My Toledo vs. Miami (OH) best bet is on the under, with the best available line at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Miami (OH) vs. Toledo Pick: Under 44.5
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
- Miami (OH) vs Toledo Point Spread: Toledo -6.5 (-110)
- Miami (OH) vs Toledo Over/Under: 44.5 Points
- Miami (OH) vs Toledo Moneyline: Miami (OH) +200 · Toledo -250
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Preview
Miami RedHawks Betting Preview: Making Life Difficult
Chuck Martin's team finally picked up its first win over UMass last week and will look to build on that momentum as conference play begins.
The RedHawks have struggled scoring, averaging just 12 points per game and five yards per play with a meager 39% Success Rate. And, despite averaging the best starting field position in the country, they've scored only 1.78 Points per Opportunity.
Quarterback Brett Gabbert leads an offense that passes the ball over 55% of the time. He's completing 56.8% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, but he's struggled with turnovers, tossing six picks to three touchdowns.
As a team, Miami has posted a 45% Pass Success Rate with 2.25 20-yard-passes per game.
Losing Rashad Amos in the offseason has hindered the running game. The RedHawks are averaging just 85.5 rushing yards per game at 3.1 YPC. Keyon Mozee leads the team with 28 rushes for 174 yards.
As a team, Miami (OH) has posted a 29% Rush Success Rate, ranking 130th nationally.
While the offense has struggled to score, the defense has made life difficult for opposing offenses, allowing 22 points per game, 5.9 yards per play, and 2.36 Points per Opportunity. While the RedHawks rank 112th nationally with a 45% Success Rate allowed, they've made life difficult by limiting explosive plays.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Looking To Bounce Back
Toledo posted a dud against Western Kentucky last week, which was likely a letdown game after its big win over Mississippi State the week before.
The Rockets average 37.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play with a 46% Success Rate and 4.65 Points per Opportunity.
Tucker Gleason leads the passing attack with 862 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. He's completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 8.0 yards per attempt.
The RedHawks have posted a 49% Pass Success Rate with 2.75 20-plus-yard passes per game.
Still, Toledo is a rush-first offense, with a 46% rush rate that ranks in the top 40 nationally. Four players, including Gleason, have amassed over 30 rush attempts this year, while Willie Shaw leads the team with 148 yards and three scores.
As a team, the Rockets average 136 rushing yards per game at 3.7 YPC with a 45% Rush Success Rate.
Meanwhile, the defense allows 19 points per game at five yards per play with a 38% Success Rate allowed. But it's worth mentioning their 23% Havoc Rate ranks 23rd nationally.
Toledo vs Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 69 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 78 |  |
| Havoc | 123 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 134 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 104 | 41 | |
Toledo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 56 | 95 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 132 | 31 |
| PFF Coverage | 118 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 73 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (84) | 26.6 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (127) | 56% (42) |
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, 79% of bets have backed Toledo to cover the 6.5-point spread, but 12% of the money is on the favorite.
According to Action Network's PRO Report, Toledo is attracting sharp action, but big-money bets are on Miami (OH) to keep the game within a touchdown.
My lean on the spread is to back Toledo, but it's not my preferred play.
My preferred bet on this game is to play the total.
Even with a total in the low 40s, the market has seemingly not caught up to Miami's style of play. With the RedHawks' slow pace on offense and ability to contain explosives, every drive takes time off the clock.
Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 42.5)
How to Watch Miami (OH) vs Toledo Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Betting Trends
- Miami (OH) is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
- Miami (OH) games are 4-0 to the Under
- Toledo is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS
- Toledo games are 3-1 to the Over
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Weather
