Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 44 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 44 -115o / -105u | -110 |
Northern Illinois' reign atop the MAC was short and sweet. The Huskies' surprise conference championship run is all but a mere memory at this point, as the program has fallen to a 3-7 record this season.
Much of their strugglse can be attributed to the injury suffered by quarterback Rocky Lombardi that has kept him out since Week 4. After much shuffling at the quarterback position, head coach Thomas Hammock has been splitting the duties between Nevan Cremascoli and Justin Lynch.
Miami (OH) has followed a similar trend this season, owning just a 4-6 record this season. The program's failures this season can also be attributed to its quarterback missing significant time.
But the RedHawks are fortunate to have Brett Gabbert back in the lineup now, as he's making his third start in a row after missing half of the season.
How does the Northern Illinois offense keep up in this matchup with the RedHawks?
Miami RedHawks
Though Miami (OH) dropped last week’s matchup against in-state rival Ohio, that loss can’t be attributed to Gabbert.
Gabbert showed off his potential last game, completing 20-of-26 passes for 244 yards and three touchdowns. It was his best performance since returning from his injury, and he could even top that in this matchup.
.@BrettGabbert finds his guy @machipp2 for 6️⃣@MiamiOHFootball | #MACtionpic.twitter.com/8QTlKvqrpI
— #MACtion (@MACSports) November 9, 2022
He will be going up against a Northern Illinois defense that ranks 114th nationally, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt. The Huskies have allowed a passing touchdown in each game and 28 in their 10 games this season.
The RedHawks defense will need to focus on slowing down the run. The program ranks 22nd in the nation, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season. Four of Miami's 10 opponents have failed to rush for over 100 yards, as the RedHawks rank among the top 40 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
This is a perfect matchup for Miami (OH) to get back on track and keep its season alive.
Northern Illinois Huskies
It’s been a long season for Northern Illinois, which now doesn’t have much to play for at this point with a 3-7 record.
The Huskies offense has faltered since losing Lombardi. To make matters worse, the defense has been horrific with ranks among the bottom 12 in nearly every metric.
The group is coming off a 24-21 victory over Western Michigan, but the quarterback play was ugly once again.
Hammock went with Lynch on the final drive, and he capped off a game-winning drive with a rushing touchdown. The sophomore finished with 83 yards rushing on six carries.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOUCHDOWN[!! pic.twitter.com/zd9GaBwTdh
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) November 10, 2022
Winning in that fashion really highlighted the main issues for the Huskies; they don’t have a quarterback who can make plays through the air.
Cremascoli completed 8-of-17 passes for 133 yards, including three turnovers. In his two starts, he has now thrown four interceptions in 50 pass attempts while completing only 42% of them.
Lynch has been a strong runner, but he’s completed just 50% of his 20 passes for 5.9 yards per attempt.
That’s why the Huskies runs the ball on 60% of their plays. They do find success on the ground, ranking among the top 25 in yards per attempt (4.8) and yards per game (201).
However, NIU has constantly been playing from behind, as the defense allows 33 points per game. The secondary will be in big trouble in this matchup with Gabbert leading the RedHawks' offensive attack.
Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 114 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 91 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 114 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 84 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 17 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 82 | 101 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 119 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 56 | 80 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.6 (121) | 27.8 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 59.8% (23) | 60.4% (19) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois Betting Pick
Miami (OH) needs to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. Gabbert's injury really derailed the RedHawks' potential success, but making a bowl game despite all of the hardship would certainly be worth it.
Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has all but packed it in this season. It has two victories over FBS opponents in Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, but both of those programs rank outside the top 115 inCollin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
The Northern Illinois offense is sputtering with no viable quarterback option. It's relied on running the ball over 60% of the time.
The RedHawks are going to jump out to a double-digit lead early against a defense that allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt. That lead will quickly become insurmountable with a Huskies offense that's one-dimensional.
Back Miami (OH) to win big on the road and keep its bowl hopes alive.
Pick: Miami (OH) +1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
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