2018 Peach Bowl Betting Odds: Michigan-Florida
- Odds: Michigan -6
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 29
- Location: Atlanta, Ga.
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets
We've got a good game on the undercard for the College Football Playoff as Michigan takes on Florida at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Michigan will be without several key starters, while Florida will be looking to get Dan Mullen a season-defining victory in his inaugural campaign at the swamp.
Odds Movement for Michigan-Florida
By Danny Donahue
After opening as a 6-point favorite, Michigan quickly moved through the key number of -7 up to -7.5 despite receiving the minority of bets. When leading rusher Karan Higdon and second-leading tackler Devin Bush were both pronounced out just over a week ago, that line took a quick hit, and has since continued back to its opening number. Michigan is currently drawing 41% of bets and 34% of dollars.
The movement on the total has been less exciting. With 55% of bets and 57% of money landing on the over, this number has inched only from 50.5 to 51.
Buy Low on Michigan?
By Evan Abrams
Michigan was blown out by Ohio State, 62-39, in its last game. It was an uncharacteristic performance from the Wolverines, who allowed 17.6 points per game in 2018. Historically, this has been a good bounce-back spot for good defenses.
Over the last decade, teams that allow less than 20 PPG but are coming off a game in which it allowed 40+ points are 8-3 straight up and against the spread.
Strength vs. Strength
By Stuckey
The battle in the trenches will feature two fantastic units. Florida ranks No. 1 in the nation in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs on offense, while Michigan is tops in that same category on defense.
Injury, Absence Report
By Steve Petrella
Michigan will be without:
- Starting LB Devin Bush
- Starting RB Karan Higdon
- Starting DL Rashan Gary
- Starting LT Juwann Bushell-Beatty
Bush led the team in tackles, while Gary is a force on the interior. Both could be first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, which is why they're sitting out.
Does Michigan Want To Be Here?
By Stuckey
I think this is an important game for Florida. It's Mullen’s first year with the program and he should have them fired up to beat a Michigan team that has blown out the Gators in two of the past three seasons (both on neutral fields).
On the other hand, I’m not sure how excited Michigan will be for another meeting with Florida. This is a team that was supposed to break the mold and finally beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten and get to the CFP. Instead, the Wolverines got torched in their season finale and landed in the Peach Bowl.
And judging from the amount of players sitting out, I’m not sure they want to prove anything in this bowl. The irony is not lost on me that Michigan will play on CFP Saturday, but not in the College Football Playoff.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
There are plenty of players sitting out for Michigan, including running back Karan Higdon, linebacker Devin Bush and defensive lineman Rashan Gary. Those players account for a large portion of production on each side of the ball. As Stuckey said, I'm not sure if the Wolverines will be up for this one.
Dan Mullen and the Gators beat the preseason projections by going over eight wins on the season, including key victories over LSU and Mississippi State. Mullen should have his guys up for the challenge and looking to get some revenge on the Wolverines.
The Action Network power ratings make this game Michigan -7.5 while S&P+ estimates the Wolverines at -6. After Michigan announced that it would be without its top rusher and tackler, the line moved through the key number of 7 and currently sits at Michigan -6.
If you look at the advanced stats, these teams are evenly matched. Both have a strength of schedule in the top 30, while Florida’s top-rated offensive line in sack rate will take on a Michigan defensive line that ranked first in passing downs sack rate.
While Michigan holds the edge offensively in almost every category against the Florida defense, it's the Gators offense that may be the difference. Florida ranked 32nd in S&P+ rush offense and top 20 in efficiency, opportunity rate and stuff rate. With plenty of big pieces missing from the Michigan defense, I am going to back a young, motivated Florida team with the points.
Collin's Pick: Florida +6
Bet to Watch
By Stuckey
I like Florida here. I think the Gators possess a motivational edge against a Michigan team without two of its most important players — one on each side of the ball.
Gary is a star, but Michigan has depth along the DL and the Wolverines still dominated when he was out with injuries this season. It’s Bush they will really miss on a run defense that only allowed 3.3 yards per rush and ranked in the top 10 in S&P+ rush defense.
The Wolverines will need to find a way to stop Florida's three-headed monster rushing attack that averaged 5.2 yards per carry (24th nationally). That won't be easy without their best linebacker. The Gators also have the athletes at receiver to exploit Michigan’s defense with crossing routes, which we saw Ohio State do to end the season.
And on the other side of the ball, Michigan will really miss Higdon against a Florida defense that is more vulnerable against the run. Without Higdon, Michigan won’t have anywhere near the explosiveness in the running game — and more will be asked of Patterson and the passing game, which plays right into the strength of the Florida defense: its defensive backs and pass rush. Florida's defensive backs and defensive line both rank in the top 20 in Havoc Rate.
Throw in an advantage on special teams and I think there’s a good shot Michigan loses its fifth bowl game in the last six appearances.
Stuckey's Pick: Florida +6
