Two middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams are squaring off on Saturday afternoon in Champaign.
Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) is fighting for bowl eligibility, while Illinois (6-3, 3-3) is looking to get back on track after losing its past two.
Illinois is a 3-point favorite on the spread with a 47.5-point over/under.
Read on for my Michigan State vs. Illinois predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction
- Pick: Illinois -3
Michigan State vs Illinois Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Michigan State vs Illinois Point Spread: Michigan State +3 (-110) · Illinois -3 (-110)
- Michigan State vs Illinois Total: Over/Under 47.5
- Michigan State vs Illinois Moneyline: Michigan State +125 · Illinois -159
Michigan State vs Illinois Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Looking For Consistency
It's been an up-and-down opening season for Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith.
Fighting to six wins and making a bowl game would be a great accomplishment for his first season.
The Michigan State defense has been solid against the run but outside the top 100 nationally in pass defense.
That's concerning going up against an Illini offense with a capable passing attack led by Luke Altmyer.
In their most recent home outing against Indiana, the Spartans had no answer for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosier receivers, who moved the ball at will and scored 47 unanswered points.
Illinois is not as explosive, but it can be effective in the play-action game, and Altmyer also leans on his tight ends.
Michigan State must be much more disciplined in its coverage and avoid letting up the big play.
On the other end, quarterback Aidan Chiles has made strides but has also shown his youth at times in his first full season as the starter.
There's a lot to like about Chiles — he's got a huge arm and moves well, but with 11 interceptions tossed on the year to just eight touchdowns, he's clearly still learning how to take care of the football.
The Illinois defense has been pretty soft against the run, so look for Smith to try to get the run game going early to take some pressure off his young quarterback.
If Chiles can make the right reads and the Sparty OL can get a push, the Spartans can score.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Time To Bounce Back
After a win over Michigan to move to 6-1 and inside the top 20 rankings, things looked very promising for the Fighting Illini.
Back-to-back losses have halted the momentum a bit, which makes Saturday's game all the more important to stop the bleeding.
The loss in Eugene to No. 1 Oregon was certainly understandable, but the home loss to Minnesota is one Bret Bielema and company would like to have back.
With the final two games against Rutgers and Northwestern, Illinois has a realistic chance at a nine-win regular season if it can get by the Spartans.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been much better than he was in 2023, the biggest reason for the uptick in the Illini offense.
It helps that he's got two studs to throw it to in wide receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, who continue to make plays down the field.
Dare I say the defense is holding this team back? That side of the ball has been strong during Bielema's tenure, but the Illini lost a lot from a year ago and have struggled, particularly in the trenches.
Fortunately, in this matchup, Michigan State has not had a consistent running game and has often become one-dimensional as an offense.
Forcing a turnover or two behind its home crowd would go a long way in helping Illinois get the home victory.
Michigan State vs Illinois
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Illinois match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 71 |  |
Illinois Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 61 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 55 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 125 | 37 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.4 (127) | 28.1 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (71) | 55% (68) |
Michigan State vs Illinois Pick & Prediction
I like this spot for Bret Bielema's team, which is coming off a bye and back at home, where it has played its best football of the season.
Michigan State is a little bit thin in the trenches with so much roster turnover from a year ago, and the second half of the season is where that lack of roster depth can start to rear its head.
Look for Illinois to wear Sparty out throughout the game and pull away in the second half.
I'm banking on the Illini to win and cover the number.
Pick: Illinois -3 (-110, bet365)
Michigan State vs Illinois Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Michigan State vs Illinois will be played at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
Michigan State vs Illinois Betting Trends
Michigan State vs Illinois Weather
