The Michigan State Spartans (4-3) take on the Michigan Wolverines (4-3) at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 7:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
This rivalry looks quite different than in years past, as both teams have new coaches and are fighting to become bowl-eligible before the end of the conference season.
Michigan is coming off of back-to-back losses against Washington and Illinois, while Michigan State got an impressive home win over Iowa last week.
Michigan enters this Week 9 contest as a 4-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 40.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Michigan vs Michigan State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Michigan Pick: Michigan State ML +146
My Michigan vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans moneyline, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Betting Line
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | +146 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | -178 |
- Michigan State vs. Michigan Spread: Michigan -3.5
- Michigan State vs. Michigan Over/Under: 38.5 Points
- Michigan State vs. Michigan Moneyline: Michigan -178, Michigan State +146
Michigan State Football vs. Michigan Football Preview
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State has often been its own worst enemy this season.
Talent, youth and injuries have been the consistent themes for this team in Year 1 of the Jonathan Smith era.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has a rocket for an arm but has thrown nine interceptions to just six touchdowns on the season.
Despite his struggles, Chiles has reasons for optimism heading into his first appearance in this rivalry. His wide receiver room — decimated over the last month — is back at full strength.
The Spartans' star receiver duo of Nick Marsh and Montorie Foster Jr. hit the century mark against Iowa, combining for 213 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions.
Chiles looked more comfortable taking command of his offense against the Hawkeyes, often checking at the line to make quick passes and getting his pass-catchers in space. It was his most complete game of the season, and he finished with a line of 22-for-30, 256 yards passing and one touchdown with just one pick.
Chiles has also looked more comfortable freelancing as of late, and his 51 yards rushing on 11 carries were both his second-highest totals in a game this season.
Defensively, Michigan State has been a "bend but don't break" defense all year long. The Spartans don't do everything well, but they are tough against opposing run games and make big plays when it matters. The Spartans rank 28th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The pressure will be on the Wolverines' offense to find answers, but that will be easier said than done.
Michigan Wolverines
This season has been a disastrous start to the Sherrone Moore era.
The defending national champions have taken multiple leaps backward from last year's dominant team, particularly on the offensive end.
Michigan is now on their third starting quarterback through seven games, after starting the year with turnover-prone game manager Davis Warren, then benching him for the one-dimensional athlete Alex Orji, then benching him for super-super-senior Jack Tuttle.
Tuttle passes the eye test in this room, but that's not saying much. With Tuttle under center, the Wolverines have lost back-to-back games behind middling offensive outputs.
Add it all up, and you have an offense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Pass Success Rate. That's a massive missed opportunity in this game, as the Spartans have been most vulnerable through the air (97th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed).
Michigan might be able to survive offensively if it were closer to "elite" on the ground instead of just "good." The Wolverines don't make it easy on their running back tandem of Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, and maybe wear and tear is starting to play a factor. But their production has dropped in recent weeks.
Mullings has failed to reach 90 yards rushing in back-to-back games after recording 110 or more in three consecutive weeks just before that. Edwards has been inconsistent since the start of the season. He has seen his carry share dip considerably and lost a critical fumble last week in the loss to Illinois.
The Wolverines rank 32nd in Rush Success Rate, which has been enough to grind out four wins against inferior opponents. But that won't be a great game plan against Michigan State, as the Spartans are best at stopping opposing rushing attacks.
The Spartans rank 25th in Rush Success Rate allowed, and just last week, they bottled up one of the best backs in the entire sport. Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson was held under 100 yards rushing for just the second time in seven games, and outside of one breakaway 75-yard run late, Michigan State's defense was able to hold Johnson to just 23 yards rushing on 13 carries.
That bodes horribly for a Michigan team that can only do one thing well — run the football.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Michigan State match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 64 | |
Michigan Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 34 |  |
| Pass Success | 102 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 114 | 55 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 74 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 99 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (124) | 31.2 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (66) | 62% (20) |
How to Bet My Michigan State vs. Michigan Pick
This line has already dipped a ton. The Spartans opened as 6.5-point underdogs, and it has dropped to +3.5.
While catching a field goal is still good value, this is a better spot to go bold and take the underdog outright.
Michigan had no answers for Washington or Illinois, and if you solve the Wolverines' ground attack, you shut them down completely.
The Spartans have the game plan and the personnel to do just that.
Pick: Michigan State ML +146
Michigan State vs. Michigan Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Michigan State vs. Michigan will be played at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Big Ten Network.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Trends
- 69% of bets and 74% of the money are on Michigan St to cover the spread
- 96% of bets and 100% of the money on the moneyline are on Michigan to win outright
- 79% of bets and 84% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Weather
