It can be difficult to find an edge on a game that everyone is betting. The more bets that come in, the more data the sportsbooks have to identify public perception and move their bets accordingly.
There is no bigger college game this weekend than Michigan State vs. Ohio State, as it's taking the most handle of any game on the slate this weekend.
That typically means the edge on the spread and total is slim, but sometimes you can find an edge in the crumbs.
That's right, we're talking our best player prop plays as No. 7 Michigan State takes on No. 4 Ohio State, courtesy of PrizePicks.
Editor’s note: All totals listed below are the over/under on PrizePicks.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State Player Prop Best Bets
The first place to point to when it comes to this game is Michigan State's pass defense, which ranks dead last — 130th out of 130 FBS schools — in pass yards allowed.
The Spartans have a tall task in front of them trying to slow down quarterback CJ Stroud and projected NFL first-round receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
Michigan State will try to run the ball and eat clock to limit Ohio State's big-play ability. I'm not sure that will be enough to slow down the Buckeyes' passing attack.
Stroud has thrown for more than 330 yards in three of his last two games and three out of his last five. Also, he's averaging 337.3 passing yards per game, against teams that have shown better pass defenses than Michigan State.
If this turns into a shootout, I'll love it even more. But give me Stroud over 327.5 passing yards.
Those yards have to go to someone, and Olave's total seems exceptionally low. He has slowed down after getting off to a rousing start, but he had nine catches for 85 yards last week against Purdue. I like him to have another big week, so give me Olave over 70.5 receiving yards.
For the Spartans, running back Kenneth Walker III is still on the shortlist for the Heisman Trophy, which has the most open race we have seen in a long time. A good game on Saturday can vault Walker back to being the frontrunner.
We know head coach Mel Tucker will want to run the ball and keep the football away from Ohio State offenses. We also know the Buckeyes have been prone to giving up yards to good running backs.
Give me Walker Over 99.5 rushing yards.
PrizePicks Player Prop Best Bets
- CJ Stroud: Over 327.5 passing yards
- Chris Olave: Over 70.5 receiving yards
- Kenneth Walker III: Over 99.5 rushing yards.
