The Michigan Wolverines (4-2) will travel to Champaign, Illinois, to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) on Saturday for a huge top-25 showdown in the Big Ten.
Michigan suffered its second loss of the season two weeks ago to Washington, which effectively ended its chances of getting to the College Football Playoff. The Wolverines are struggling to find a competent quarterback to lead their offense, which has severely limited them this year.
Things won't get any easier for their offense on the road this week.
Illinois survived a massive scare Saturday, coming from behind to beat Purdue 50-49 in overtime. The Illini needed to drive the length of the field with a little over a minute on the clock to kick a field goal to even send it into overtime.
Bret Bielema's team has already dropped two top-25 teams this season, and its lone loss came on the road to Penn State, so it'll be pesky underdogs Saturday.
The Wolverines are favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a total set at 43.5 points.
Let's dive into my Michigan vs. Illinois predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Michigan vs Illinois Prediction
- Michigan vs Illinois Pick: Over 43.5
My Michigan vs Illinois best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs Illinois Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | -166 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | +140 |
- Michigan vs Illinois Point Spread: Michigan -3.5 (-110) · Illinois +3.5 (-110)
- Michigan vs Illinois Total: Over/Under 43.5
- Michigan vs Illinois Moneyline: Michigan -165 · Illinois +138
Michigan vs Illinois Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Reliance on the Run
Things are changing with the Michigan offense. The Wolverines fell behind against Washington, and with Alex Orji being an extremely limited passer, Jack Tuttle entered and finished the game.
Sherrone Moore made it official this week that Tuttle will be the starter going forward, which instantly makes the Michigan offense better thanks to having at least a competent passer under center.
Tuttle has been in college football for a long time with this being his seventh season, but he hasn't really been a full-time starter anywhere he's gone. He's at least been in the Michigan system for two years, so he knows Moore's offense inside and out.
He's not going to be asked to throw the ball at a high rate, as Michigan will continue to lean on its rushing attack.
The Wolverines are averaging 5.1 yards per carry and rank 43rd in Rush Success Rate. Donovan Edwards actually hasn't been running the ball that effectively, averaging only 4.8 yards per carry, so instead it's been the Kalel Mullings show.
He's averaging a whopping 6.8 yards per carry with 27 forced missed tackles. Illinois' run defense has been terrible this season, so expect Mullings to have a big game.
The Michigan defense has been pressured in these big games, with the offense consistently going three-and-out. The metrics against the run have been good, but in their four biggest games against USC, Minnesota, Texas, and Washington, all four teams had a positive EPA on the ground.
The secondary has a lot of talent, but they got torched by Will Rogers in their last game, as he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and had four big-time throws.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Altmyer is Dealing
The Illinois offense has come alive this season and a lot of it has to do with how good Luke Altmyer has been at quarterback.
Altmyer is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with 14 touchdown passes compared to just one interception. The reason Altmyer has been so good is because of his ability to consistently throw the ball deep. As you can see below, he is elite when throwing the ball over 10 yards in the air.
His best target on those deep balls has without a doubt been Pat Bryant. He has a 15-yard ADOT with seven touchdowns already this season.
Pat Bryant on targets of 20+ yards this season
9 targets
6 receptions
0 drops
164 yards
3 touchdownsData via https://t.co/Svjqv3d4DPpic.twitter.com/9DIZ2Uc6sj
— Illinois Football Focus (@IlliniFB) October 11, 2024
Illinois has struggled to run the ball at times this season, and Michigan's defense has been below average versus the pass. If Illinois is going to win this game, it will be because Altmyer has a big game.
Illinois' defense has been pretty bad this season, and last weekend against Purdue was by far its worst game. They let a backup quarterback throw for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns against them, but their real struggles this season have come against the run.
Illinois is 89th in EPA/Rush allowed because they are flat out getting beat up front. They are 126th in stuff rate and 104th in Defensive Line Yards, which is a terrible sign against Michigan's offensive line.
Michigan vs Illinois
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Illinois match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 54 | |
Illinois Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 62 |  |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 61 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 19 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 9 | 16 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.7 (132) | 29.2 (110) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (15) | 56% (51) |
Michigan vs Illinois Pick & Prediction
The pace of this game is going to be slow with these two teams being outside the top 100 in seconds per play, but I think the total is too low.
Even though Tuttle hasn't been great throughout his career, he's certainly an upgrade to Orji throwing the ball. With him under center, teams can no longer stack nine guys in the box against Michigan and will have to respect the pass.
Illinois' secondary has been below average this season and if Purdue's backup quarterback can throw for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns, so can Tuttle.
Michigan should also be able to dominate this game up front with its offensive line and open up big holes for Mullings and Edwards to have huge days on the ground.
Altmyer has been incredible this season and after what Will Rogers did to Michigan's secondary, Altmyer should be able to do the same with his elite ability throwing the ball deep.
I have 46.7 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 43.5 points.
Pick: Over 43.5
Michigan vs Illinois Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Michigan takes on Illinois in Champaign on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan vs Illinois Betting Trends
- 82% of the bets and 82% of the money is on Michigan to cover the spread.
- 81% of the tickets and 78% of the money is on the over.
- 97% of the bets and 96% of the cash on the moneyline is on Michigan.
Michigan vs Illinois Weather
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