There would be shock and awe to any college football fan if the current NCAAF landscape was presented when last season ended.
Michigan bulled over Washington in Houston to take the 2024 National Championship, but the loss of key players and head coach Jim Harbaugh loomed large over the offseason.
Fast forward to Week 11 of the 2024 season, and the reigning national champions will enter Bloomington as a two-touchdown underdog.
The Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) will take on the Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0) with IU sitting as a -14 favorite with an over/under of 49.5.
After being picked last in the Big Ten, head coach Curt Cignetti now has an undefeated team in Indiana that's set to take on the blue bloods of the conference in this game with Michigan before a bye week and a trip to Ohio State.
As for Michigan, only three games remain to reach bowl eligibility in a championship hangover season. If the Wolverines fail to win in Week 11, Northwestern and Ohio State could keep Michigan from making the postseason.
Let's take a look at my Michigan vs Indiana predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Michigan vs Indiana Odds, Betting Lines
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | +475 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | -650 |
- Michigan vs Indiana Point Spread: Michigan +14.5 (-110) · Indiana -14.5 (-110)
- Michigan vs Indiana Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Michigan vs Indiana Moneyline: Michigan +475 · Indiana -650
Michigan vs Indiana Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Indiana vs Michigan best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover the spread in the first half, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
Michigan vs. Indiana Pick: Indiana 1H -7.5
Over/Under
PASS
Michigan Wolverins vs Indiana Hoosiers College Football Preview
Why Michigan Can Cover
Despite not covering against the spread thanks to a late Oregon touchdown, there were positive takeaways for Michigan in Week 10.
Quarterback Davis Warren connected on two passing touchdowns to players not named Colston Loveland. While the tight end did receive the most targets with nine, Warren connected with Tyler Morris and Peyton O'Leary in the end zone.
Meanwhile, the rushing attack produced a Stuff Rate below the national average and generated three attempts over 12 yards.
The wrinkles in the offense are welcome for head coach Sherrone Moore, as Michigan had become predictable in the run game.
Michigan utilized plenty of inside zone read as its run concept of choice with quarterback Alex Orji producing six rushing attempts and Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings racking up 18 combined carries.
While the offense was a pleasant surprise, the defense's inability to create chaos was uncharacteristic.
Defensively, Michigan boasts the best pass rush in the nation, according to PFF, but produced zero sacks and just five quarterback hurries against Oregon.
A rank outside the top 100 in defending on third downs played a factor, as the Ducks converted 10 of their 15 attempts from an average distance of 4.5 yards.
Michigan's run defense failed to produce any stuffs at the line of scrimmage, sticking Oregon on just five of its 37 attempts.
Oregon produced at least two first downs on 6-of-9 offensive possessions, so the Wolverines defense could show fatigue down the final stretch of the season.
Why Indiana Can Cover
Indiana finds itself in the thick of the College Football Playoff race, creating pressure around the team for the first time this season.
The Hoosiers have taken opponents to the woodshed with multiple blowouts, as only Washington and Maryland could stay within two touchdowns.
The biggest argument about Indiana football is its strength of schedule — an area where the Hoosiers rank 103rd. Expect the temperature dial to get turned up with a remaining strength of schedule in the top 15 with Ohio State in Week 13.
Indiana has been one of the best defenses in the nation — a staple of head coach Curt Cignetti's teams throughout his previous stops.
When a strength of schedule is suspect at this time of season, it's important to focus on where the team has had troubles. Indiana's defense sits outside the top 50 in Finishing Drives, early downs explosives and creating contested catches.
The Hoosiers have been one of the best defenses nationally against inside zone, producing a 65% Success Rate and a negative EPA for opponents. That could be huge against Michigan this week.
IU fields two defensive linemen ranked top-25 individually against the run in interior Tyrique Tucker and edge Mikail Kamara.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to action against Michigan State in Week 10, threading the needle for a passing attack that logged four touchdowns.
The Hoosiers offense tripled the national average in explosive drives thanks to the passing attack, while the rushing attack played with a limited playbook.
Rourke returned from surgery for a broken thumb suffered against Nebraska in Week 8. The quarterback was not called on to run the ball, being forced to scramble just once for 20 yards against Michigan State.
1. Underrated pocket mobility
Rourke isn't a top athlete, but he's nimble in the pocket and can scramble while keeping eyes downfield looking for receivers.
He also has the ability to shake off sack attempts with plus-size for position. pic.twitter.com/U4fPKozN67
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) November 5, 2024
Michigan vs Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Indiana match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 94 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 6 | |
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 57 |  |
| Pass Success | 1 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 82 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 90 | 16 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.8 (129) | 28.0 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (21) | 58% (32) |
How To Make Michigan vs Indiana Picks
Cignetti was clear on the objective for Indiana's offense: protect the quarterback at all costs against an aggressive defensive coordinator in Wink Martindale.
The Hoosiers primarily run zone read on the ground, calling twice as many attempts in that concept than man concepts against Michigan State in Week 10.
Indiana will have plenty of success in zone read with running back Justice Ellison, who leads the team in zone rush attempts while averaging four yards after first contact. Michigan hasn't been great against this concept, ranking mid-FBS in Defensive Line Yards and Success Rate against inside zone read.
Indiana's offense is expected to protect Rourke with additional blockers in the backfield, an area that could cause trouble for Michigan.
The Wolverines produced zero Havoc against Oregon, as the nation's top-ranked pass rush unit failed to rattle Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Martindale's aggressiveness with blitz could be fruitless, as Indiana ranks second nationally in Havoc Allowed thanks to the 11th-best pass-blocking unit.
The Michigan secondary should be under fire with a coverage grade of 90th, as Rourke and Co. lead the nation in On-Target Rate in passing attempts.
Action Network projects Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite, giving numerical value to the Wolverines.
The issue is the cover rate for Indiana, which sits at 8-1 against the spread this season with the best covering margin in FBS (17.2).
With a bye week on deck before a massive showdown with Ohio State, look for Indiana to use its entire playbook in the first half.
The Hoosiers have the 12th-best first-half defense in the nation, allowing an average of 1.1 points in the first quarter. Expect Indiana to be in cruise control during the second half against Michigan.
Pick: Indiana 1H -7.5
Michigan vs Indiana Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Michigan faces Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Indiana vs Michigan Betting Trends
- 66% of bets and 80% of the money are on Indiana to cover the spread
- 7% of bets and 94% of the money on the moneyline are on Michigan to win outright
- 97% of bets and 99% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Indiana vs Michigan Weather
