Michigan vs Michigan State Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -1800 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
Michigan State looks to play spoiler on Saturday night at the Big House when it faces its in-state rival Michigan.
It's been a disappointing season for Michigan State, but it got its first big win of the season two weeks ago, beating Wisconsin at home in overtime.
Mel Tucker's team is currently sitting at 3-4 with a difficult schedule to finish the season, so it looks like the Spartans will be missing out on a bowl game this year.
Michigan is undefeated at 7-0 and ranks fourth in the country. However, the only ranked team it has beaten is Penn State at home. Additionally, only two of the Wolverines' wins have come against teams with a winning record.
They really just need to make sure they don't trip up the next three weekends before hosting Illinois and then finishing the season against Ohio State at the Big House.
Michigan Wolverines
Wolverines Offense
The Wolverines have played an easy schedule to date, but gaining 6.8 yards per play while ranking third in Success Rate and 28th in EPA/Play is nothing to scoff at.
Blake Corum has been outstanding while taking over as the lead running back. He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry, has 13 touchdowns, owns 23 runs of 10+ yards and is posting a 92.9 PFF Rushing Grade, which leads college football.
Last time he was on the field, he ran all over Penn State's defense, going for 166 yards and two touchdowns.
JJ McCarthy has been one of the most accurate passers in college football this season. He has a 82.9% adjusted completion percentage, which is only second to Bo Nix. McCarthy has Michigan ranked sixth in Passing Success Rate and 28th in EPA/Pass.
He should be able to throw all over Michigan State's secondary.
Wolverines Defense
Michigan has been incredibly stout on the defensive side of the ball. In its last game against Penn State, one of the Nittany Lions' touchdowns came on defense, so Michigan held Sean Clifford and company to just 10 points on offense.
Overall for the season, Michigan is No. 1 in the country in yards per play allowed at 3.8 and ranks 10th in Success Rate Allowed and fourth in EPA/Play Allowed.
The front seven has been incredibly stout, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry (4th in FBS) while ranking 21st in EPA/Rush and 14th in Defensive Line Yards. Not only that, but Michigan is also doing the fundamentals well on defense, as it has the fourth-best tackling grade in the nation, per PFF.
The secondary has also been very impressive, as it held Clifford to just 5.4 yards per attempt two weeks ago. The Wolverines rank third in EPA/Pass, eighth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and have the 10th-best coverage grade, per PFF.
Michigan State Spartans
Spartans Offense
The Spartans' offense hasn't been as bad as the results have shown. Sparty is still gaining 5.5 yards per play and ranks 67th in Offensive Success Rate.
They have been below average running the ball, though. Michigan State is 75th in Rushing Success Rate, 95th in Offensive Line Yards and is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Lead back Jalen Berger really hasn't been that effective. He's averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but only has a 67.3 PFF rushing grade and only has 11 runs over 10+ yards, which is not good considering he's carried the ball 88 times.
Payton Thorne has struggled as a passer this season, averaging only 7.2 yards per attempt with a PFF passing grade of 69.3. His main target, Jayden Reed, has struggled with injuries this season, which could be a reason why Thorne has regressed.
He did have his best game of the season against Wisconsin two weeks ago, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, throwing two touchdown passes and putting up a 82.0 PFF passing grade.
Spartans Defense
The front seven has been halfway decent for Michigan State this season. The Spartans allow only 4.0 yards per carry while ranking 34th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 38th in EPA/Rush.
That means the Spartans may have a shot at stopping Corum and Donovan Edwards.
Perhaps the biggest mismatch in this game is McCarthy versus the Michigan State secondary, which has been horrible this season. The Spartans have allowed 8.2 yards per attempt (111th in FBS) while ranking 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
McCarthy should be able to throw all over the Spartans' secondary.
Michigan State also sits 86th in Defensive Finishing Drives, while Michigan ranks 10th nationally in that category on offense.
Michigan vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Michigan State match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 8 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 14 | 15 |  |
| Havoc | 46 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Michigan Offense vs Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 120 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 31 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 86 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 3 |
| PFF Coverage | 116 | 10 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 125 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (28) | 29.7 (122) |
| Rush Rate | 46.4% (107) | 61.2% (16) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Pick
Michigan has been on cruise control all season long and whether or not it makes the Big Ten Championship game is going to come down to its final two games of the season.
However, the Wolverines must focus on beating their rival, in which they have a fantastic matchup against, as long as McCarthy is effective in the passing game.
I have Michigan projected as a -29.3 favorite, so I like the value on the Wolverines at -22.5.
Pick: Michigan -22.5 |
