Last season, Michigan finished as the No. 1 team in the country and captured its first national title in 27 years.
However, much of that team and coaching staff has moved on, as this season's Wolverines are just 5-3 after a 24-17 victory over rival Michigan State.
This season, the No. 1 team resides in Eugene as the Oregon Ducks are atop the polls for the second consecutive week. The Ducks are 8-0 after a 38-9 victory over Illinois and enter as heavy favorites in Ann Arbor.
Read on for my Michigan vs. Oregon picks, predictions and same-game parlay for Nov. 2.
Michigan vs. Oregon Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Dillon Gabriel 250+ Passing Yards (-220)
- Tez Johnson 80+ Receiving Yards (-205)
- Colston Loveland 50+ Receiving Yards (-130)
- Michigan Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-215)
Parlay Odds: +470 via DraftKings
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
Dillon Gabriel 250+ Passing Yards and Tez Johnson 80+ Receiving Yards
Across most sportsbooks, Dillon Gabriel enters this week among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. He's been a model of consistency and is eighth in the FBS with 2,371 passing yards.
He's averaging 296.3 passing yards per game and has surpassed 250 in seven of eight games this season. In the miss, he finished with 243 passing yards against Boise State, a game in which he lost two possessions because Oregon scored a pair of special teams touchdowns.
Gabriel has a skilled group of pass catchers at his disposal with receivers Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden and tight ends Terrance Ferguson and Kenyon Sadiq all with 15 (or more) receptions and nearly 200 yards (Sadiq has 198).
However, the leader of the bunch is Tez Johnson. The fifth-year senior had 86 receptions for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.
This season, he has 63 receptions for 638 yards and eight touchdowns. Johnson has recorded 80 or more receiving yards in five of Oregon's first eight games and finished with 75 against Ohio State.
He has three 100-yard games this season and usually gets there with a lot of opportunities. He has caught seven or more passes in six games this season.
Gabriel and Johnson will face a Michigan defense that is 85th in passing yards allowed and surrendering 228.5 passing yards per game. Minnesota's Max Brosmer, USC's Miller Moss and Washington's Will Rogers all surpassed 250 passing yards against the Wolverines.
Also, Fresno State's Mikey Keene and Texas' Quinn Ewers were each within a first down of that number.
Michigan has been without its top corner, Will Johnson, for the past two games and may also be without its second-best corner, Jyaire Hill, this week. With Michigan banged up in the secondary, Gabriel should throw for over 250 yards, with at least 80 going to Johnson.
Colston Loveland 50+ Receiving Yards
Michigan's pass defense has struggled this season, but its pass offense has been even worse.
Through eight games, the Wolverines have barely surpassed 1,000 passing yards. However, when Michigan does complete passes, tight end Colston Loveland is usually on the receiving end.
The junior standout has accounted for nearly 40% of Michigan's passing game with 42 receptions for 411 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Loveland has recorded 50 or more receiving yards in four of his seven games this season and left one game early due to injury.
Michigan hasn't received much production from its receivers and you'd expect opponents to prioritize taking Loveland away. However, he has found a way to remain productive.
Loveland had 70 receiving yards against Texas and has 150 receiving yards over the past two weeks (against Illinois and Michigan State).
As the underdog, the game script may feature Michigan throwing from behind for much of the game. Even if most of his yardage comes in the second half, I expect Loveland to reach 50 receiving yards once again this week.
Michigan Team Total Under 17.5 Points
Michigan has scored 30 points just once this season and that required a late pick-six by Johnson against Fresno State.
The Wolverines are 111th in the FBS in terms of scoring offense (21.5 points per game) and have already faced five top-40 scoring defenses this season. In those games, the Wolverines scored 17 or fewer three times.
Oregon is allowing just 15.6 points per game as its defense is 28th in Success Rate and 27th in Havoc. The Ducks may also get star defensive lineman Jordan Burch back this week.
Michigan's official team total is 14.5, but on DraftKings, you can move the totals around a bit. If Michigan kicks a field goal, it would have to score four times to reach 18 points (likely 20 or 21) against Oregon's defense.
Everyone knows Michigan wants to run the ball with Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, but with its anemic passing game, Oregon can stack the box and force Davis Warren to throw the ball.
Alex Orji will see some reps, but whether it is him or Warren, I don't see Michigan putting together the scoring drives necessary to cash this over.
