College Football Week 2 Saturday features one of the biggest games of the entire NCAAF season, as the No. 3 Texas Longhorns travel to Ann Arbor to battle the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines.
We should be in for a heck of a game at the Big House. In the latest Texas vs. Michigan odds, the Longhorns are now back down to 6.5-point favorites (-6.5) against the Wolverines after opening at Texas -3.
Texas is a -275 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, with Michigan +250 to pull off the Week 2 upset. The over/under is currently 41.5 total points scored. You can keep up with all of the latest college football odds on our live, updating NCAAF odds page.
Our college football betting experts are on Texas to cover the spread, which means you'll want to shop around and find the Longhorns at -6.5 if you can. Meanwhile,our experts are split on the over/under, but we also have a handful of player props in our Texas vs. Michigan best bets.
Let's get to our Week 2 college football predictions and expert Texas vs. Michigan picks.
College Football Week 2 Picks: Texas vs. Michigan
- Texas to cover the spread
- PASS on over/under
- Texas WR Matthew Golden Anytime TD
- Texas WR Silas Bolden Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
- Michigan WR Tyler Morris Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Our Texas vs. Michigan predictions are for the Longhorns to cover the spread, the over/under to be more or less accurate, and on two Texas wide receivers and a Michigan wide receiver to have big games. Let's break down the latest lines on Michigan vs. Texas: the spread, over/under, and moneylines for both teams.
Texas vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Texas vs. Michigan spread: Texas -7 | Michigan +7
- Texas vs. Michigan over/under: 41.5 total points scored
- Texas vs. Michigan moneylines: Texas -275 | Michigan +250
The consensus Texas vs. Michigan lines have the Longhorns as a touchdown favorite, but Texas -6.5 is available at books such as bet365, if you're looking to follow our expert betting picks and bet on Texas to cover the spread.
By Dan Keegan
The biggest nonconference game of the young season has arrived, as these two historic programs face off under the high noon sun in Ann Arbor.
The Longhorns opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has now moved to a touchdown for the Texas vs. Michigan spread.
Steve Sarkisian’s Texas program has been gaining ground on the other college football national contenders each year. Sherrone Moore and Michigan just won the ultimate prize everyone is gunning for.
Both of these programs had successful 2023 seasons, earning conference championships and playoff spots. They both played on New Year’s Day in the semifinals, and that's where their roads diverged.
Texas lost to Washington on the first day of the year and spent the next nine months building for this game and this season. It brought back a star quarterback in Quinn Ewers, reloaded at wide receiver and on defense with key transfers, jumped to the SEC, and has been on fire in high-school recruiting.
The only thing missing is a ring.
That’s what Michigan won. After the Wolverines won the Rose Bowl, they added the National Championship to their trophy case a week later.
Since then, they’ve changed head coaches, lost almost their entire offense to the NFL, been through two NCAA investigations, had a Netflix documentary made about their cheating scandal and then struggled through a slog of an opener against Fresno State.
It was a long road to get here, but the defending champions are now home underdogs. Despite all the change for the Wolverines, this is still a loaded defense and a tough, physical team in the trench.
Meanwhile, Sarkisian has been vanquishing his program’s reputation for soft play. His team, particularly on offense, has the kind of unnaturally large and athletic bodies that tend to hoist trophies at the end of the season.
We polled our staff of 17 college football experts to find a consensus for the Michigan vs. Texas spread and total, and to come up with other creative ways to bet this massive matchup. Let’s get into their analysis.
Spread
Texas -7
By Cody Goggin
Our staff is leaning toward taking the Longhorns as 7.5-point road favorites against the defending national champions by a 10-6 margin. For the case for Michigan to cover the spread, check out college football expert Collin Wilson's Michigan vs Texas Prediction.
On the surface, this Michigan vs. Texas spread and our corresponding poll may be surprising, but with context around where these teams are right now, it becomes more understandable.
Michigan is at a major point of transition in its program’s history. Jim Harbaugh was the figurehead of this program for the last decade, and the team operated in his image.
Now, Sherrone Moore has the unenviable job of not just following up a legend, but taking over a team coming off a championship with high expectations in Ann Arbor.
Unfortunately for Moore, most of that team is gone. Only one true starter returns on offense in tight end Colston Loveland. Everywhere else on this offense is a question mark, including the quarterback position.
Last weekend against Fresno State, the Wolverines posted an Offensive Success Rate in just the 57th percentile and an EPA per Play mark in the 24th percentile.
Davis Warren unexpectedly got the start at quarterback and completed 15 of his 25 passes for 109 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Warren averaged -0.24 EPA per dropback in this game with just a 38% Passing Success Rate.
Meanwhile, Texas looked dominant in its own tune-up game against a Mountain West opponent, as it dispatched Colorado State by a score of 52-0.
Texas recorded a 97th-percentile Offensive Success Rate and 93rd-percentile EPA per Play while holding Colorado State to just the 18th and sixth percentiles in those categories, respectively.
The Longhorns bring back seven starters on offense, including quarterback Quinn Ewers, who threw for 254 yards in Week 1.
They also have eight starters back on defense for a unit that ranked 13th in SP+ last season. I do have some questions regarding this unit as they replace some extraordinary talents in the trenches, but they answered the call in Week 1 and may end up being better than last season.
Laying 7.5 points on the road in a game between two top brands is aggressive, but Texas is the much better team at this point. Its roster is not only more complete, but the Longhorns are more settled with the amount of returning production they have.
Over/Under
Over 42.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 5 Picks |
Under 42.5 | 6 Picks |
By Dan Keegan
Could you have a tighter split than this? Why don’t you — yes, you, dear reader — also call it a coin flip and make it an even three-way split?
If you like the over, you trust Michigan’s offense to rebound from a tough Week 1 — perhaps it was playing it a little too close to the vest against an overmatched Group of Five team, and the real playbook is going to come out now.
You trust that Alex Orji and Davis Warren are actually an effective one-two punch of runner and passer at quarterback and that the running game is still one of the best in the nation.
You trust that the ground game will do damage against a Texas defense that will look human without T’Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy and Jaylan Ford in the front seven.
You know that Steve Sarkisian is one of the best big-game play-callers in this sport. You trust that he has spent eight months devising a game plan, and you trust his talented charges to execute it. You trust that Michigan’s offense is going to do its part to contribute to the scoring in this game and can get you over an NFL-like total.
Maybe you don’t trust any of that and you like the under.
You know the Warren and Orji situation is dire, and it's the exact definition of the old adage, “If you have two quarterbacks, you really have none.” You trust this game will be played at a slow pace, especially early, as both teams feel each other out.
You trust Michigan’s offense is exactly as worrisome as its opener portrayed, but you also know its defense is still incredible. You trust that probably four of the best five individual players in this game are Michigan defenders.
You trust that a thin Texas running back room won’t have any answers against a loaded Michigan front.
You trust a defense that made Michael Penix Jr. and that receiver group look mortal can easily do the same to Quinn Ewers and his all-new group of transfers.
I trust that this game’s script could really go either way.
I trust that I’m going to find a better way to play this game — keep reading for our staff’s other picks and player props. And I trust that I’m going to sit on my couch at noon on Saturday and be entertained by a whale of a ballgame.
College Football Props for Longhorns vs. Wolverines
College Football Week 2 Prop: WR Matthew Golden Anytime TD (+255)
By Alex Hinton
Let's take a look at a Michigan vs. Texas player prop for Saturday. L
ast year, Xavier Worthy was WR1 for Texas, but Adonai Mitchell led the team with 11 touchdown receptions.
Worthy and Mitchell will be debuting in the NFL this weekend, but Texas has another loaded receiver room with Isaiah Bond, Ryan Wingo Johntay Cook II, Matthew Golden and Silas Bolden.
Golden may not be as big as Mitchell, but he may be the one taking his place as the main red-zone target.
In his Longhorns debut, Golden had three receptions for 50 yards, which looks like a modest day. However, he also had two touchdown receptions and a few other red-zone targets.
Golden showed a nose for the end zone with 13 touchdown receptions in his first two seasons at Houston.
Now, the Longhorns opened the year with Colorado State, and finding the end zone will be more difficult against a stingy Michigan defense.
The Wolverines have All-American cornerback Will Johnson on one side of the field, but he can't cover everyone at once. He also may not spend much time on Golden at all.
For this price, I have to back Golden to find the end zone again this week.
Texas vs. Michigan Prop Pick: WR Silas Bolden Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
If there’s one position group where Michigan retained most of its personnel from last year’s championship team, it’s the defensive line.
Led by future top-10 pick Mason Graham, this group is ferocious and will put some pressure on Quinn Ewers and the Longhorn offensive line. As a result, look for Steve Sarkisian to get in his bag and dial up some screens and other short passing plays to offset the blitz.
I expect shifty Oregon State transfer Silas Bolden to be the beneficiary of a handful of those plays. Bolden can line up just about anywhere on the field, and there isn’t a route he can't run.
He’s also phenomenal in space and can do a ton once he has the ball in his hands after the catch.
Look for Ewers to target the speedy veteran plenty in this contest. As a result, I’m backing Silas to go over his receiving total of 23.5 yards in Michigan vs. Texas.
Michigan vs. Texas Prop Pick: WR Tyler Morris Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
By Alex Hinton
With the departures of Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, Tyler Morris steps into a prominent role in Michigan’s passing game this season.
However, the passing attack left much to be desired against Fresno State. The Wolverines passed for just 121 yards on 27 attempts.
Much of that was accounted for by tight end Colston Loveland, who had eight receptions for 87 yards. I would expect Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to give Loveland a bit more attention and force others to beat them.
Morris is one player I expect to answer the bell.
Morris did have three receptions last week, but they went for just 15 yards. However, for 24 yards, he can hit this line with a catch or two.
Last season, Morris had four receptions of 20 yards or more. That includes a 38-yard touchdown in the CFP semifinal against Alabama, so he has already shown he can step up in big games.
While the stakes aren't quite as high this week, Michigan has another test against another SEC powerhouse.
With more expected volume this season, I also like the value for Morris to reach 40 and 50 receiving yards, which sit at +210 and +320, respectively, on FanDuel.
How to Watch Texas vs. Michigan: Live Streaming, Channel, Start Time
| Location: | The Big House, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Michigan vs. Texas kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on FOX on Saturday live from the the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The game is streaming on Sling, YouTube TV, fubo and all platforms that carry FOX.
