The Michigan Wolverines host the USC Trojans in Ann Arbor at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
This game has seen a major shift on the point spread after Michigan sat as a favorite of more than a touchdown when Game of the Year lines dropped over the summer.
Now, in Week 4, USC enters this game as a -4.5 favorite after opening at -8.5 this week. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 44.5, down from the open at 52.5.
Find our Michigan vs. USC picks and predictions for college football Week 4 below.
Michigan vs. USC Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44.5 -102o / -120u | +158 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44.5 -102o / -120u | -192 |
By Dan Keegan
The 2023 national champion Michigan Wolverines haven't even made it to the second month of their title-defense season before needing to make a quarterback change.
It’s been that kind of start to the season for Sherrone Moore’s ballclub, and it's in that kind of headspace as it welcomes Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans to the Big House.
Yes, this is a conference game now. Yes, USC is favored now. After opening up as underdogs of a touchdown in offseason Game of the Year markets, the Trojans are now laying almost a touchdown in the Big House.
Michigan has looked like a wreck on offense, and especially worrisome was its inability to take Texas to task on the ground two weeks ago. A Michigan without a dominant ground-and-pound rushing attack is no Michigan at all.
The defense is still salty, however, checking in at fourth overall in Bill Connelly’s SP+.
This is the marquee matchup in this clash of blue bloods. The Wolverines will be tested by Riley’s RPO and counter-heavy scheme. His system, which prints Heisman Trophy winners, is now in the capable hands of Miller Moss.
Coincidentally, this unit also checks in at fourth in SP+ on the offensive side of the ball.
The other matchup is more “B movie” than blockbuster.
Michigan’s offense is trending downhill fast, and it has made the switch to Alex Orji as the full-time quarterback. Orji presents little threat with his passing but is a dynamic presence in the run game.
However, that one-sidedness might be just the ticket for USC’s defense. This former laughingstock of a unit is finding competency with new coordinator D’Anton Lynn after acing its first test against LSU in the opener.
Even if one side of the game is much more enticing than the other, we still have a special matchup on our hands.
We polled our staff of 17 college football betting experts to find a consensus on how to play the spread and the total, and recommend some creative ways to bet this game too.
Our team is in agreement on this; we think you should lay the points with USC on the road, and we like the under.
Michigan vs. USC Spread
USC -4.5
USC will kick off its inaugural Big Ten matchup with a trip to the Big House, and our staff has strong conviction (13-2) that the Trojans will cover against the defending national champions.
It’s no surprise that the Lincoln Riley-led Trojans have a potent offense, but it's more than a little flummoxing that the stout play of the defense has been the lead story this season.
The Trojans coming into this game with a materially improved defense was not on anyone’s bingo card for 2024; however, new USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has the Trojans bullying opposing offenses.
In Riley’s tenure as a head coach, he has produced three Heisman Trophy winners and a reputation for being light on defense. This season seems to be poles apart from Riley’s previous acts, as USC enters the game tied for 18th in scoring defense, allowing just 10.0 points per game.
We're light on sample size after just two games for USC but can look to its Week 1 matchup against LSU, where it limited the Tiger offense to just 20 points.
As usual, LSU is stacked with talent, and this was a statement effort for a USC defense that many thought would get thrashed out of the game.
Now, USC will take its act on the road again but will be facing the struggling Wolverines who are in the midst of a quarterback commotion. After ranking 121st in the nation in passing offense, Michigan announced a change at quarterback as it moves to Alex Orji.
Michigan will most likely look to stick with the run game with Orji being thrust into a tough spot in this high-profile game. But the run game isn’t what it was last year, and this more physical USC defense should be up for a battle in the trenches.
Just because the USC defense has been the story season to date doesn’t mean that Riley isn’t cooking up explosive plays on offense anymore.
Replacing Heisman winner Caleb Williams hasn’t been a problem with Miller Moss taking over at quarterback and averaging 303.0 yards per game this season.
The Moss-led Trojan offense will look to leverage Riley’s wizardry on offense and pick on a Wolverine defense that enters the game as the 90th-ranked pass defense in the nation.
We recommend backing the more complete USC Trojans and laying the visiting chalk.
Michigan vs. USC Over/Under
Over 44.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 44.5 | 11 Picks |
Under 44.5
The Action Network staff of college football experts are nearly in lockstep this Big Ten showdown and we have strong conviction that the Under of 46.5 is the money making move.
A couple of years ago, you would have never heard Lincon Riley, USC, and defense all in the same sentence. Heck, you might not have seen it on the same page, but money talks and here we are with those three factors being the essence of this matchup.
Defense is going to be in a surplus for this Saturday afternoon affair, so much so that USC might as well blend right in as a quintessential member of the Big Ten in its matriculation game.
After hiring new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and hitting the portal hard, the Trojans are playing a new brand of athletic, hard nosed football that sneakily has been the strength of the team in his nascent season.
Meanwhile, Michigan will look to channel energy from last season’s roster to augment its defensive presence. The Wolverine offense stumbled against an extremely strong Texas team, giving up 31 points, but has looked solid against both Fresno State and Arkansas State, giving up 10 and 18 points, respectively.
The question marks around the Michigan defense do pose some questions for the under, but these are more than offset by the disaster that is the current state of the Michigan offense.
With a mid-week change announced at quarterback, the Wolverines turn to dual-threat quarterback Alex Orji. Orji will almost certainly look to run first, but is facing a really bad matchup against the unruly USC front seven.
On the other hand, USC has been good on offense but hasn’t shown the flashes of brilliance that have captivated previous teams coached by Lincoln Riley.
Ultimately, we think that defense will dominate the day and recommend betting the under with a hard stop at 43 points.
More Ways to Bet Michigan vs. USC
Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
Play to 49.5
By Alex Hinton
Michigan did not go to the transfer portal to replace J.J. McCarthy, instead giving the first opportunity to Davis Warren after a strong fall camp.
However, since the lights have come on, Warren has struggled mightily with six interceptions in Michigan’s first three games. As a result, Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore is pivoting back to Alex Orji, the favorite to win the job all summer.
Orji is the run-first quarterback of the two, and he will be counted on to help Michigan jump-start its run game against high-level opponents. Michigan ran for just 80 yards against Texas, but it will be looking to build off last week’s performance against Arkansas State when it ran for 301 yards.
Orji already has games of 32 and 27 rushing yards while playing limited snaps. I wouldn't rule out Warren still seeing reps in certain passing situations, but Orji should get at least 75% of the snaps in this game.
If that's the case, he may just soar over this line.
Orji comes into this game averaging 5.8 yards per carry. With 10 carries (sacks included), Orji can hit this line with 4.6 yards per carry.
With a big day on the ground, Orji can climb his ladder as well. FanDuel has him +300 for 80 rushing yards and +520 for 100 rushing yards.
