Michigan Wolverines vs Washington Huskies Odds
2024 CFP National Title Game Prediction
| Michigan Wolverines Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 56.5 -105o / -115u | -235 |
| Washington Huskies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 56.5 -105o / -115u | +195 |
I'm really looking forward to Monday night's National Championship between the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies.
Not only do we have new blood with two teams who have not won a national title since the start of the BCS era in 1998, but we have a matchup of two completely contrasting styles.
Michigan features one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country, while Washington makes its hay through the air with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a trio of excellent wide receivers on the outside.
I will admit this was one of the more difficult national titles I can remember pricing from a side perspective. While both teams will come into Monday night boasting undefeated records, it's not like the Huskies dominated their competition all season long. In fact, they went 8-0 in one-possession games with their past 10 victories all coming by 10 points or less.
However, Washington certainly wasn't at full strength on either side of the ball for long stretches, which makes it difficult to pinpoint where exactly to power-rate this squad, which seems to be peaking at the right time.
Meanwhile, Michigan was much more dominant throughout the season, but it has benefited from an extremely easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks.
Looking back at the Wolverines' schedule, the toughest quarterbacks they faced included Kyle McCord, Drew Allar, Taulia Tagovailoa and Jalen Milroe. I wouldn't classify any of those signal-callers in the "elite" category, as each has his flaws.
This will clearly be the most complete and dynamic passing attack Michigan has faced all season.
Ultimately, I ended up with a projection of Michigan around a four-point favorite, so I don't see value on either side.
Outside of turnover luck, this game will likely come down to whether or not Michigan can play from ahead. If Jim Harbaugh's bunch can take a lead into halftime for a 15th straight time this season, I think the Wolverines win. If not, it could get dicey.
2024 CFP National Championship Betting Preview
Going Low
I do fancy the under a bit, especially now that it has jumped to 56.5, so I disagree with the early market move and the recent success of national title overs.
Although, similar to the side, the game script could play a major role in determining the total.
If Michigan has to play from behind, which I think is less likely, the under will get a bit dicier, especially if it falls behind by two scores at some point against a defense that doesn't generate elite pressure to fully exploit Michigan's issues in pass protection.
I anticipate Michigan will come out with a run-heavy game plan to exploit a softer Washington defensive front that can be pushed around. Even Texas' underwhelming rushing attack had success against Washington until it had to abandon the ground game in the second half in comeback mode. That will lead to long drives by one of the slowest offenses in the country.
Considering Washington also doesn't play fast, the clock should be an under ally throughout.
Plus, both defenses also do a tremendous job of limiting explosive plays, which Michigan's offense doesn't really collect at a high frequency anyway.
As a result, I'm expecting plenty of clock-chewing, methodical drives without many explosive plays. That's the ideal formula for an under in a big game.
Since Michigan hasn't faced many elite quarterbacks, it's a bit harder to project the true dominance level of this secondary. However, I'm still confident this will undoubtedly be the best set of defensive backs Washington has faced all season.
On paper, Michigan's defense is a better version of Texas, which simply didn't have the talent at cornerback that Michigan does with Josh Wallace, Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil.
Like the Longhorns, Michigan has an elite interior defensive line, but I actually think they have a deeper and more capable group of edge rushers who will try to do what almost no defense has done this season: get pressure against the dominant Washington tackles.
I'm super intrigued to see how Michigan's defense approaches this matchup schematically.
I expect defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to utilize a Cover 2 base on the back end to take away the potential explosive plays similar to what he did against CJ Stroud and Ohio State last season.
However, I also assume he will try to confuse Penix with different pre-snap looks, including some Cover 0 blitzes with press man on the outside to make Penix uncomfortable. That strategy, which Texas simply didn't have the cornerbacks to employ, gave Penix major problems in his worst performance of the season against Arizona State.
Can the Michigan defensive backs hold up in these situations against a now-healthy Washington wide receiver room?
That could decide who comes out on top, but I believe Michigan will have enough success to at least contain this Washington offense as much as any defense can.
The Huskies are going to move the ball and pick up their fair share of points, but the Wolverines can get a few third-down stops, and most importantly, hold up in the red zone. Forcing Washington into a few field goal attempts should get the under home without any flukes.
That job might be even easier if Dillon Johnson, who got carted off late last Monday, isn't at 100% health. He's expected to suit up, but I doubt he'll be at full strength, which will hurt the run game, especially in short-yardage situations.
That could potentially make Washington's play-action attack less lethal and also hurt in blitz pickups.
Meanwhile, when Michigan has the ball, I expect the Wolverines to go with a heavy ground-and-pound attack, as they have all season.
However, this is a Washington defense that continues to trend in a positive direction with improved health. The Huskies don't have the same caliber of depth that other elite teams in college football have, so its defense really took a hit when it had injuries along the defensive line and at safety earlier this season.
With a now full deck on the back end, Washington can match up with the Michigan receivers, who aren't known as a dominant group that consistently gets separation.
The Huskies will have to really rely on a true bend-don't-break approach, which hopefully results in red-zone stops.
Prop Shop
Since I anticipate Michigan will run it incessantly and have success with that approach, that will force the Washington linebackers to play downhill immediately off the snap and its safeties to creep down into the box for extra run protection.
That will lead to opportunities through the air in play-action for tight end Colston Loveland, who I'm targeting in the prop market.
Ten of Washington's 14 opponents exceeded their season-long production averages at the tight end position, including Texas in the CFP semifinal. The Longhorn tight end room — primarily Ja'Tavion Sanders — finished with seven catches for 81 yards after averaging around four catches for 60 yards in all other games.
That's noteworthy since that average production is almost exactly on par with Michigan's season-long numbers.
The Huskies faced a number of teams that simply didn't utilize their tight ends often, which has skewed their season-long metrics. However, they rarely held up against teams that did, with the lone exception being Oregon State in a game that was highly impacted by inclement weather.
For another example, look at the two matchups with Oregon. In the first meeting, the Ducks' tight ends caught seven passes for 65 yards and a touchdown and then followed that up with a five-catch, 28-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Pac-12 Championship.
I will likely play the over on either the catches or yards on Loveland, although I'm a bit fearful of McCarthy's volume if Michigan can simply run it at will for four or five yards a pop throughout.
I do think there are going to be ample opportunities for him to score off play-action in the red zone, especially near the goal line, where Washington will likely sell out to stop a touchdown machine in Corum.
Therefore, I did play Loveland as an anytime touchdown scorer and took a shot on his first Michigan TD prop.
Check out DFS apps like PrizePicks or Betr for great player prop betting options! Whether you want to back Loveland, or think Corum finds the end zone instead, these two apps are widely available throughout the country and offer great new user bonuses.
Regardless of what you bet in this game, let's hope this ACC officiating crew doesn't have a huge impact on the outcome. Good luck, and enjoy the final college football action we'll have until August.
National Championship Bets to Watch
- Michigan-Washington Under 56.5
- Colston Loveland Anytime TD (and first Michigan TD for small)
